*****New Football Thread*****
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@nick said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer Do you think the overs are now more profitable because we have this greater amount of extra time since the new rules came in and obviously this hits the unders?
Can't be sure but not really. This weekend threw up some real freak things which basically never happen. Plus if the goals come before injury time you can't say it's relevant.
6 goals in 30 minutes when the game is 0-0. That's mental.
For my unders lays, nothing has changed other than I'm getting more and more data and it's starting to become more robust. Plus limiting my liability by laying under 2.5 means I can stake a little higher and take the high priced games I was leaving on the table.
I did notice a while back the correlation between price and how often 3 goals+ would be scored. I just hadn't done anything about it.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer Do you think the overs are now more profitable because we have this greater amount of extra time since the new rules came in and obviously this hits the unders?
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A good weekend. Plenty of goals around:
Just shy of 3 points this weekend, just under 19 points for the month of October so far:
Australia A-League 27/10/2023 09:45 Brisbane Roar Sydney FC 1.23 2-0 3-0 £23.00 TV O1.5
Germany Bundesliga 27/10/2023 19:30 Bochum Mainz 1.27 1-0 2-2 £27.00 OA/B O1.5
Spain La Liga 27/10/2023 20:00 Girona Celta Vigo 1.21 0-0 1-0 £21.00 OA/B/O SHG
Australia A-League 28/10/2023 04:30 Wellington Phoenix Perth Glory 1.23 1-0 2-1 £23.00 TV O1.5
Australia A-League 28/10/2023 09:45 Western Sydney Western United 1.22 5-0 5-0 £22.00 TV O1.5
England Premier League 28/10/2023 12:30 Chelsea Brentford 1.69 0-0 0-2 -£100.00 O HW
England Premier League 28/10/2023 12:30 Chelsea Brentford 1.36 0-0 0-2 £36.00 O LCS
Czech Rep First League 28/10/2023 14:00 Sigma Olomouc Zlin 1.22 0-0 0-0 -£100.00 OA/O SHG
England Premier League 28/10/2023 15:00 Bournemouth Burnley 1.26 1-1 2-1 £26.00 OA SHG
England Championship 28/10/2023 15:00 QPR Leicester 1.21 1-1 1-2 £21.00 OA/O SHG
Northern Ireland Irish Premier League 28/10/2023 15:00 Crusaders Glentoran 2.4 1-1 1-1 -£100.00 TV HW
France Ligue 1 28/10/2023 16:00 Reims Lorient 1.3 0-0 1-0 £30.00 OA/O SHG
Czech Rep First League 28/10/2023 17:00 Banick Ostrava Jablonec 1.31 0-0 0-1 £31.00 O SHG
England Premier League 28/10/2023 17:30 Wolves Newcastle 1.5 1-2 2-2 £50.00 OA/O SHG
Northern Ireland Irish Premier League 28/10/2023 17:30 Newry City Larne 1.21 0-0 1-2 £21.00 O AW
Portugal Primera Division 28/10/2023 18:00 Benfica Casa Pia 1.3 1-0 1-1 £30.00 O SHG
Holland Eredivisie 28/10/2023 19:00 Sparta Rotterdam RKC Waalwijk 1.24 0-0 2-0 £24.00 O SHG
Italy Serie A 28/10/2023 19:45 Juventus Verona 1.21 0-0 1-0 £21.00 O SHG
France Ligue 1 28/10/2023 20:00 Lens Nantes 1.29 1-0 4-0 £29.00 OA/O SHG
USA MLS 28/10/2023 22:00 Philadelphia Union New England 1.21 3-0 3-1 £21.00 O O1.5
Australia A-League 29/10/2023 06:00 Melbourne Victory Newcastle Jets 1.21 4-1 5-3 £21.00 O O1.5
Holland Eredivisie 29/10/2023 11:15 FC Twente Feyenoord 1.22 1-0 2-1 £22.00 OA/B SHG
France Ligue 1 29/10/2023 14:00 Montpellier Toulouse 1.26 1-0 3-0 £26.00 OA/O SHG
England Premier League 29/10/2023 14:00 Brighton Fulham 1.21 1-0 1-1 £21.00 OA/B/O SHG
Denmark Superliga 29/10/2023 14:00 Silkeborg OB 1.22 0-0 0-0 -£100.00 OA/B/O SHG
England Premier League 29/10/2023 15:30 Manchester United Manchester City 1.64 0-1 0-3 £64.00 O AW
France Ligue 1 29/10/2023 16:05 Rennes Strasbourg 1.3 1-0 1-1 £30.00 OA/O SHG
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 17:00 Inter Milan Roma 1.22 0-0 1-0 £22.00 OA/B/O SHG
Spain La Liga 29/10/2023 17:30 Athletic Bilbao Valencia 1.26 1-0 2-2 £26.00 OA/O SHG
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 19:45 Napoli Milan 1.21 0-2 2-2 £21.00 OA SHG
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 19:45 Napoli Milan 1.23 0-2 2-2 £23.00 OA LCS
Italy Serie A 29/10/2023 19:45 Napoli Milan 1.52 0-2 2-2 -£100.00 OA LCS
USA MLS 29/10/2023 22:00 Houston Dynamo Real Salt Lake 1.35 1-0 2-1 £35.00 O FHG
USA MLS 29/10/2023 22:00 Houston Dynamo Real Salt Lake 1.24 1-0 2-1 £24.00 O O1.5
291le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Busy for a Monday. Chance to get over the hill. Purple are lay over 2.5, blue are lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8 or lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6:
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Final trade. Lay over 2.5 Valerenga
Another clanger. Not the weekend for betting against goals.
Going through my results now defo a goals weekend!
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Within touching distance of recovering the early month shambles now.
6/7 under 1.5 lays
1/1 under 2.5 lays
1/3 over 2.5 laysOver lays were break even Friday, around 3pts loss yesterday and just under 1pt loss yesterday.
The only winners for Sat and Sunday have come from smaller odds lays.Regardless, it's around a £13.00 gain today the way I play it.
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Final trade. Lay over 2.5 Valerenga
Another clanger. Not the weekend for betting against goals.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Final trade. Lay over 2.5 Valerenga
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@james-everard I noticed that but if you 'search' for them on the Betfair Exchange they magically appear.
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It's been a very bad weekend for under 2.5 but a fairly good one for over 1.5 and over 2.5 hence I find myself still nicely in profit. Here's more up to 18:00 when there will be one more potential:
Blues are lay under 1.5 up to 6.8 and lay over 2.5 between 7.0-9.6
Purple are lay over 2.5 for what it's worth!Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Lay under 1.5 Kongsvinger - almost forgot
Norway 1st -
Anyone else noticed matches on filters have odds etc , but when you go onto the Betfair exchange page loads of matches not appearing ?
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Lay over 2.5 Kauno Zalgiris
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Laying under 1.5 Naestved (Denmark)
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Overnighter. I'm off to bed!
Laying under 1.5 @ 4.8
0-3 so a good start to the day. After Septembers breakout Month and early Oct struggles I'm almost back to break even this month.
Three more good days
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@Richard-Latimer good work mate!
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Overnighter. I'm off to bed!
Laying under 1.5 @ 4.8
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Break even so far, thanks in large part to a crazy game in Motherwell with 6 goals in the last 25 minutes!
These are the last 2:
Same rules apply re price and whether lay under 1.5 or lay under 2.5
And with those last 2 I have a winning day.
Over 2.5 lays 1/5
Under 1.5 lays 8/10
Under 2.5 lays 2/2Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Break even so far, thanks in large part to a crazy game in Motherwell with 6 goals in the last 25 minutes!
These are the last 2:
Same rules apply re price and whether lay under 1.5 or lay under 2.5
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
