*****New Football Thread*****

Akiva Anderson

Not a lot on tonight.

Two matches I'm looking at:

UCD v Derry City

Back Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Not a bad price considering Derry are 1.16 to win away from home!

Havant & Waterlooville v Eastbourne

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27

Not sure what to do...okay, I'm going for Over 1.5 Goals in the Havant Waterlooville v Eastbourne match!

David Milligan

@Akiva-Anderson Nice work Akiva, appreciate the posts

Akiva Anderson

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

SHG in the Chester v Hereford match. 1-0 at HT

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

SHG in the St Albans v Dover match. 1-0 at HT

Nice! Leagues I wouldn’t normally get involved with, but a lack of football left me with little choice.

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the St Albans v Dover match. 1-0 at HT

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Chester v Hereford match. 1-0 at HT

Alex Rule

@Samo This does make sense - I just need to get my head round it now aha and do some maths! Cheers, Alex

Arran Shackell

@james-everard

I’ll bear it in mind, thank you.

james everard

@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Also went for a SHG in Chelmsford v Hemel Hempstead. Which did come.

I was there , poor poor match which Hemel won 2-1 thanks to two soft penalties to inflict our first defeat of the season.
We have generally have a good defence and midfield but the strike force is shocking so if you want to normally go for goals in Chelmsford's matches don't bother it was a one off!

Akiva Anderson

Looks like the National League North & National League South to trade tonight?!

Arran Shackell

Also went for a SHG in Chelmsford v Hemel Hempstead. Which did come.

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@Samo

not only there is a SHG but i enjoyed the 2e half a lot
watching a game of this leven is just pure fun. the tackles they make, the player without a number on his shirt reminds me of playing my self as amateur.

have a good night

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@Arran-Shackell

thanks for the tip
it looks like a goal is on the way

Arran Shackell

Going for a SHG in the Cambridge v Reading game. 0-0 at HT.

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@Alex-Rule

how do you place your lay bets is it with a fixed liability or with are variable liability depending on the od you are laying on?

what you also can do is take all the losses and calculate the average loss and do the same for the wins.

then out of 100 bets you have
65 wins times the average win amounth
35 lossing times the average loss amount
then you can see if there is a profit and how much and you can do the same for the cash out option at 80 min

compare the 2 outcomes and you know wat would have move profit over the periode of the trades that you had in the past

i hope you can follow my thinking proces

Akiva Anderson

@Samo said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson

i have strategies that i want more data for
set and forget

but i'm not paper trading them i chose to wait for the back testing because it find it realy time consuming to collect all the data for all the diferent strategies etc

Yeah, I’m prepared to wait for the backtest software.

I hate paper trading. I’m not good at keeping records, but also because paper trading teaches you nothing about emotion when trading

Alex Rule

@Samo what I'm trying to work out is the different profitability of each strategy.

Current method - 73% strike rate / 16.38% ROI
Let it run - 65% Strike rate / ???? (how can I work out the ROI?)

Wondering if there is a quick fix?

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@Alex-Rule

https://www.oddsmonkey.com/matched-betting/calculator/

i used this site to calculate

not sure if this is what you mean

but you can calculate your back bet vs lay bet and the profit also over lay or under etc

Alex Rule

Does anyone use a LAY bet calculator?

I want to work out if my LTD at half time strategy would be more profitable if I left it running or if, as I currently do, I cash at 80 mins or so.

Would be great to have one I can save for future! Cheers!

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@Akiva-Anderson

i have strategies that i want more data for
set and forget

but i'm not paper trading them i chose to wait for the back testing because it find it realy time consuming to collect all the data for all the diferent strategies etc

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@Akiva-Anderson

i"m looking at Lyn vs Arendal for a SHG
min od 1,4 and 60min for entry

it is in my filter

i also had the Malaysia game in my filter but the SHG goal was to early for my entry so no trade there.
brann 2 game same story
and the egersund game is 3-0at half time so i will leave that one also