*****New Football Thread*****
-
If anyone would like a bit of lower league insight (if league 1 counts?) for a match on Saturday, I'm an Exeter City season ticket holder and things are really bad right now. We've had a horrendous injury list which affected the team badly initially, so bad that form hasn't recovered.
- 11 games in last 3 months have resulted in 2 draws and 9 defeats, 2 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- We never look like scoring, reason being we only have 1 recognised striker (James Scott) who has been awful, so the manager uses a centre back as a lone striker.
- Our captain (centre back) was sent off last week so is suspended tomorrow.
- Manager is hell bent on passing out from the keeper, admirable but allows the opposition to put pressure on constantly. At league 1 level you rarely get defenders who can pass well under pressure.
- Fans lost faith in the manager ages ago, atmosphere is becoming toxic at games.
- Manager appears to be losing the dressing room, we've had 5-0, 7-0 and 9-0 defeats this season already.
- Finally we're a trust run club, the elected board feel sorry for the manager and have publicly backed him saying he can have cash to buy strikers in January. So this could rumble on for a few months yet.
We play Stevenage away Saturday who are 3rd and flying, only conceded 5 in last 8. I can't see us scoring so have personally bet on Stevenage to win to nil. I still think Stevenage to win at 1.58 is also good value on BF.
Sod''s law, now I've written this a miracle will happen tomorrow and we'll get a result.
-
Full house tonight, pleased and unusually stress free
LTD
Willem vs Helmond
01.5 out after 70 mins /split stake
Willem vs Helmond
02.5 Split out after 60 if no goal
Nijmegen vs Sittard
Cambuur vs Jong AZ -
A couple tonight
LTD
Willem vs Helmond
01.5 out after 70 mins /split stake
Willem vs Helmond
02.5 Split out after 60 if no goal
Nijmegen vs Sittard
Cambuur vs Jong AZ -
Nothing I'm confident enough on tomorrow. Just games I'm collecting data on.
-
@Shannon-Townsend Dutch a fiver normally. Sometimes on Bet Angel so a stake can go under £1. Otherwise Ill just match them as close as I can...
-
@Tony-Hastie are you putting different stakes on different scores to level out the overall profit? its a market i look at and enjoy watching videos about but not been brave enough to get involved yet...
-
@Joseph-Henderson Yeah I waited, trusting the high percentage of HT score stats. Im most certainly in learner mode though. Looking at the in play stats helps with decisions...as does practice. Low stakes, doing stuff and seeing what happens! Ive definitely done a lot of that
-
@Tony-Hastie Haha! Will have a further search on YouTube!
Did you essentially wait until half time regardless of if there was a goal or not in the first half before cashing out?
-
@Tony-Hastie Yeh Martin is a beast with that market, I was going to tag him as well as he can follow up.
That’s something I am thinking with my videos coming, to show the stats and just some interesting things I have spotted so that it can get some ideas circulating Etc…
-
@Joseph-Henderson If youve got a green its never incorrect
Im also using the filter and picking and choosing games. I chose 4 last night. 2 had early goals and I traded out for a loss at HT. 2 were 0-0 at HT and checking the inplay stats there wasnt a lot happening so I was happy to hold on, having 1-0 and 0-1 covered. Both resulted in nice collects. There are so many ways to trade the correct score market, its a matter of finding what suits you. Ryans video is a great starting point though. Martin has also done some CS stuff that might interest you. Searchable on youtube...
-
@Joseph-Henderson Ive not used it our tested it, it was just something I found and thought you guys and gals would find interesting.
Talk me through the odds and what happened?
Yeah that original idea is right. The 0-0 HT would cover you will in terms of return from my experience.
-
@Ryan Really interested in your recent Youtube video about dutching the correct score market.
I made the filter you shared on Youtube and picked out a couple of games to try it on tonight.
Blackburn v Bristol - goal scored in the 35th minute - cashed out following the goal for a -19.5% return on my initial stake.
Stoke v Swansea - HT 0-0 - cashed out at HT for a +64% return on my initial stake.I will hold my hands up, I have never dutched correct scores before, but unless I traded this incorrectly or these were abnormal returns on the cash outs I got, presumably the strike rate for a 0-0 at HT wouldn't need to be very high to make a very decent return!?
-
For those of you discussing League Strike Rates attached is my table of League Strike Rates for the 5 strategies I am running based on the selections since I started recording scores properly (around July)
Thought you'd be interested.
-
@Alastair-Todd This is why I love this board. That match was a loser for me, but now I can go back over my data to see if the factor that you and Richard highlighted might be relevant in the case of other losers on the 1.5 goals filter I am developing.
-
@Alastair-Todd haha sod's law that would be but it's great you are thinking like this, this is the kind of further research that really improves a trader!
-
@Richard-Latimer Good point Richard. Which is precisely why I am not backing over 1.5 on the Konyaspor match this evening in the Turkish League, even though it came up on my filter. 60% of their H2H games in the software only had 1 goal. They'll probably score 5 now!
-
@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mark-Maguire The wretched Bundesliga just gave me a kicking with the Koln match as well. You would have thought they could have scored at least one goal!
Almost everything I look at now revolves around combinations of numbers as much as anything else. Koln was highlighted in my data but ruled out on account of the low amount of goals scored between the two of them and not just conceded.
I've stopped my lay over 1.5 for now but only while I complete my data so to speak. This for me would have been a lay over 1.5 if anything.
-
@Martin its interesting stuff - its where I want to really progress things in the final decision making - and part of that is the argument between randomness and stats - I feel like I'm finally getting to a place where I can start to spot the difference when I review my results
-
@Mark-Maguire if you had asked me to guess the two leagues I would have said Champ and Bund 2, very unpredicatable leagues in my experience!
