*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's
I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.
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@Richard-Latimer yeah defo overall goals seem down though Inter Miami games have been nuts with goals! I don't get many games crop up for me from MLS as odds are usually short
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What about you @Martin?
Overall my stats are robust but MLS has really caught me off guard.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Stuart-Capstick interesting to note. I start off looking for games where both teams have scored in at least 80% of last games. Then a bit of tweaking around the edges.
My last loss came in NY Redbulls game. Last season goals galore on these parameters. This season, terrible.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Everyone on the Harrogate vs Crewe match tonight?! Over 8.5 corners for me!!
Odds were 1.52. It’s a market I’ve added to my trading. Now doing,
Over 1.5 goals
SHG
Corners
Home win -
No. Not at all. Quite the opposite. Virtually every game seems to have a SHG and go over 1.5.
FHG in that league hasn't been so good, however.
It just depends, I imagine, which markets you trade and which games fit your parameters.
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Has anyone else found the MLS awful for goals this season?
Basically around 12pts to the good last season and now in the red.
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Everyone on the Harrogate vs Crewe match tonight?! Over 8.5 corners for me!!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Ryan Can't quite remember, although I'm pretty sure that the 1.5 and 0.5 FHG were based on yours and then tweaked by me.
As for the SHG - I started that after watching the video and so I look for 0-0 at HT and then do a rapid bit of stats analysis to see if it is worth putting the trade on.
The 1.5 strike rate is just under 83% with the other two hovering just over 77% but I do take into account the league strike rates as well which often means I don't enter the trade - I am finding that Argentina and Brazil are going through a pretty rubbish patch for goals (at least the games that my filter throws up!).
Keep up the good work.
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@Alastair-Todd Well you dont strike me as an erratic person so lets break it down, the matched betting is solid because its risk free and can be a little top up every month.
Accas - were these for fun or more of the matched betting laying off ones? (never done these! only the accas back in the day with laddies on that big slip lol!).
Nice! are the FHG and over 1.5 the ones you got from us or you built yourself? Same with the SHG?
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@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd Get in!!!! This is amazing stuff, has this come from more than one strategy?
Buzzing you have taken on board what I have been saying, there's so much gold in looking at those stats on existing strategies.
@ryan It is from Over 1.5 and Over 0.5 FHG strategies, with a little dose of (opportunist) SHG as well! I have to admit that a little smattering of matched betting and some cheeky accas have added some profit, although I acknowledge that this is a no-no to a disciplined trader!
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@Alastair-Todd Get in!!!! This is amazing stuff, has this come from more than one strategy?
Buzzing you have taken on board what I have been saying, there's so much gold in looking at those stats on existing strategies.
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I wonder how September has been for everyone? For some reason, it has been my best month by an absolute mile and I have increased my bank by about 70% in a month. I have tried to put my finger on it and, apart from the Bet 365 free bet offers, I can only put it down to taking much more notice of the stats and my spreadsheets. @Ryan - I have taken on board your recent videos and have tried to be more disciplined about respecting the league strike rates and the stats for goal timings, scores etc. I fully expect that my luck will turn and that I will go quiet at the end of October, but for the moment it seems to be working.
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@Alastair-Todd 3 if you back the draw for half time and a goal goes in on 45+3
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@Alastair-Todd I know the feeling.
On the flip side, laying Man Utd when they are favs is proving very fruitful at the moment. Thought they were too short again today and already greened up when Brentford went 2 up, happy days!
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Two really annoying things:
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It always seems to be the last trade of the day that loses, wiping out most of your profit.
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You lose your Over 0.5 goals at HT and then they score in the first 2 minutes of the second half!!
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS You will be able to backtest any strategy idea and it will backtest it for you.
Martin and I are working on some AI stuff as well
We have a football and a tennis thing we are working on.
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@Ryan I’m actually excited ….. I think you know me by now…… how will it help me trading goals ?
Help me build new strategies? Is it AI driven ?
but the amount of 0-0s in Argentina is actually insane, even for a low scoring league