*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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Good start to the day with some of my trades.
Started researching more a day ensuring I'm only backing trades that have good stats behind them. Osasuna v Valencia just kicked off. Good stats for fhg and started at 1.52 odds. Great value. -
2.16 for a Utd win today is far too short in my opinion. Markets overreacting to one match last week and still glaring issues in this Utd team.
Of course could still win but value lay for me
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@Alastair-Todd great question, I'm off on a day trip to Norwich today (about 10 hours driving) so can't answer this too deeply right now but the first thing would be liquidity for me, are there markets you will struggle to get in and out of?
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Crikey, what a roller coaster of a ride in the China Super League. Shanghai Shenhua match: THREE goals disallowed and, finally, goals came in 94' and 98'!!! Never in doubt...
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Craig-Greenway me too, anyone else been testing something over summer getting 5-10 selections on a weekend and now the other leagues have started is getting 100+?
Hi Martin, you've probably done a video on this but I wonder if there is a time-efficient way of 'disqualifying' many of those 100+ selections? Presumably, most of the time the reason they have come up as selections is because the stats show they are viable to trade. However, there must be a quick(ish) way of working out which ones are worth doing and which ones aren't? Obviously I have a number of leagues that I am cautious with due to strike rate but what are the other key indicators? (apologies for the rambling question and if there is a video that already nails this!). A
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@Craig-Greenway me too, anyone else been testing something over summer getting 5-10 selections on a weekend and now the other leagues have started is getting 100+?
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Looking forward to a big weekend of trades. Im currently on Pribram v Ostava b to have a fhg which has just kicked off. Home side with fhg in last 30 games.
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@Craig-Greenway said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd yeah was a good day yesterday. Made some decent profit. Got a nice routine now where I make sure I research all my trades thouroughly. You trading any games today?
Probably not, I've just arrived in Marrakesh so I'll probably take it easy for a few days!
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@Craig-Greenway need to look more at that Norway 2nd div!
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@Alastair-Todd yeah was a good day yesterday. Made some decent profit. Got a nice routine now where I make sure I research all my trades thouroughly. You trading any games today?
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@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Craig-Greenway said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning guys. Anyone trading any games today. Norwegian games on later which are great for goals.
I'm a little cautious with Norway - the D1 (OBOS ligaen) is ok (87.5% strike rate for me on O1.5) but the Eliteserien is rubbish for me (54% strike rate).
Just to say Craig, that the four matches in the Norwegian 1st division averaged 5.5 goals each today. That rather backs up what you were saying about goals!
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Unreal stats to a Fhg in the levadia u21 v flora u21 game which has just kicked off. I will be jumping on if it reaches decent odds.
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@Alastair-Todd I love all the leagues below them. Not sure with stats but fhg in them leagues are great. Usually wait for better odds than pre match.
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@Craig-Greenway said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning guys. Anyone trading any games today. Norwegian games on later which are great for goals.
I'm a little cautious with Norway - the D1 (OBOS ligaen) is ok (87.5% strike rate for me on O1.5) but the Eliteserien is rubbish for me (54% strike rate).
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@Craig-Greenway Nothing for me today, couple of selections on something Martin and I are working on called the gap - which we shall share all when we are confident with it.
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Morning guys. Anyone trading any games today. Norwegian games on later which are great for goals.
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@Martin Liverpool were wildly open in midfield it was terrible which then with everybody else bombing forward is wild. I know you like stats....
They faced 10 shots with a total xG of 1.7.... last season they only gave away more in 5 games, and 4 of those were after they'd already won the title.
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@Martin What I find mental is Betfair is giving 4.0 for West Ham to go down, that's a 25% chance of going down....
I think it's a lot higher than that to be honest as we know they don't have to actually go down.... just stay in the bottom 4 and have a fight and that'll come in.
Also adding into this their next 2 games are Chelsea and Nottingham Forrest....
They could be played 3 conceded 12 0 points scored 1-3.... Wouldn't look great.
