*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Alex-Rendell Cheers. I cashed out at half time for a decent green. Onto the next!
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@Alex-Rule got my hopes up when the away side scored after 6 minutes, only for it to be disallowed! Good spot though mate
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@Alex-Rendell Goal for the home team!
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@Alex-Rule nice one mate; Iām gonna wait and see if the away side take the lead and then get my lay in at that point. Thanks for the heads up
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Selection Kicking off shortly - Al-Muharraq v East Riffa 17:00
Home team have won 9/10 of their home games
Away team have lost 9/10 of their away games.
Home team have scored in 10/10 of their home games
Away team have conceded in 8/10 of their away gamesShould be a shout of laying the away - matched at 4.2
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@Shannon-Townsend Here's a few pointers on that, check the time of the first goal, check how many games have goals in.
My thinking here is that there is value in them & goals, then you might be able to highlight which ones have a goal in them again.
For example if a goal is scored in this window... 0-30 then there is a goal 90% of times in the rest of the data. You could then back the next overs or lay the current scoreline.
Works in reverse too, might be if there is ZERO goals in this window then there is a 90% of times in the rest of the data of no more goals - so you can actually back under 1.5 for example there.
Trading wise on them as well there might be something like a split stake plan for the over 1.5 or like you say LTD.
Also any half have more goals than others? Thats also something I like to check.
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@Ryan indeed, am hoping to find some sort of trading angle from these selections... if they are value at kick off but set and forget very up and down then they are hopefully value to trade out after goal one or enter later etc etc... just tracking without too much thought at the minute as am all over my LTD strat...
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From my last post that day made a loss of Ā£34.10 - what did I tell you about posting, at the end of that day the RT stood at Ā£243.90 the new total is Ā£270.30 and today's are:
21/05/2025 11:00:00 Kawasaki Frontale Urawa
21/05/2025 11:00:00 Yokohama M. Kobe
21/05/2025 16:00:00 Ilves KuPS
21/05/2025 19:30:00 Juve Stabia Cremonese
21/05/2025 19:30:00 Catanzaro SpeziaAGAIN do not put money on these, my actual aim with these is to get this working so well that I can give you all them as set and forgets.
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@Shannon-Townsend that was an almost game as well with the 2 goals!
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@Stephen-Hancox said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alex-Rule We're lucky to have you in this room posting insights like these
Cheers @Stephen-Hancox - my set and forget has had a rough April and May but I'm feeling this may be to end of season skewing, not that my strats are crap as I has first thought. Take away might be to stop or dive deeper at this time of year next time around.
I'll keep posting any gem bets that I find for trading inplay as these are building my confidence and give me a chance to get feedback from the group. And if others can make some money off them then all the better
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alex-Rule hope I didn't talk you out of it
I talked myself out of it TBH aha - it looked like it was the last game of the season in the 16 team league. Both were mid table so I'm guessing the assumption was there was nothing to play for so it would be on the beach football.
Well done if anyone backed it!
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@Alex-Rule We're lucky to have you in this room posting insights like these
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@Alex-Rule hope I didn't talk you out of it
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Alex-Rule Also, fine knowing goals have been scored but who has actually put the ball in the net. I'm guessing it's the opposition more times than either of these 2 teams considering their league position.
IMO goals scored are more important than goals conceded although all have a part to play.
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@Alex-Rule Septemvri already safe and Lokomotiva only need a draw to be safe themselves.
Neither team has motive to do anything. Doesn't mean they won't of course but two poor teams who have escaped by the skin of their teeth.
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@Akiva-Anderson Villa must be delighted with their end of season games, the two teams who could not care less!
