*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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Still finding my way - but because a lot of my testing strats need goals I like the % 0-0 HT & % 0-0 at FT
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@Shannon-Townsend I always like that one, especially paired with the First to score % compared to the first conceded.
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@Richard-Latimer yeah it's mental how much of a difference odds ranges affect each and every individual league - I used to apply a blanket approach to all leagues, which was fine to a point, but getting league-specific has completely transformed everything!
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@Alex-Rendell The odds and the leagues and specific odds to specific leagues are playing such a HUGE part in my systems now. For example MLS has been awful below 5.6 for overs yet Romania has so far been pretty great 3.4+ but most terrible under that.
GER Bundesliga seems to have a sweet spot that still up until now has provided many selections. Go above that and it's awful. Go below that and it too is awful.
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Happy days - I had Hakan Calhanoglu to be carded, Raphinha to score and game to be drawn, at 58. Really wish I'd put a tenner on it instead of £1. What an unbelievable game!!
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@Martin maybe not a “stat” as such, but ODDS ODDS ODDS are fundamental in any strategy. Particularly for me, home odds and over 2.5 goals odds will drastically dictate how well certain systems or datasets perform and this has been a game-changer in my own trading this year.
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@Martin For me it seems to be the statistic that offers indirect confirmation/support for whatever outcome we are looking for.
For example, if you are a totally unimaginative and conventional SHG goal trader like myself, it is the easiest thing in the world to look for +0.5 SHG or Average SHG stats, but having fiddled around a bit with a few alternatives, I find that I get most comfort when I add a +1.5SHG filter. So I can't tell you the most important stat is X, but I can say that often, the strongest proofs are the semi-related stats. These correlations usually reveal themselves a few hundred results in when you realise your win rate goes up significantly when you look at what happens to the results when you only trade where, for example, +1.5SHG is above 70 or something like that.
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Got a question for the footy traders, what stat do you think is most important for football trading?
Number of games played in the season. Every other stat depends on which strategy you're deploying.
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@Martin % of games that have finished nil nil
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@Shannon-Townsend I've been saying this to people for years! Its a great time to actually trade and refine your skills, the less games actually makes it easier to research your trades and get your systems and mind right for the winter.
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Still mostly Paper Trading but so far now that my O1.5 is now a Lay U1.5 after advice on forum it looks like it has some potential. FHG, I confess I am not in love with but still gathering data to make an edit at some point then decide if to ditch it or not, maybe give it 6 months. LTD I am really liking, the stats look good so far. Also gathering data for an under 3.5 which is now ready for tweaking.
Enjoying it so far
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@Martin i like the summer leagues as last year it really focused me as less selections so concentrate more and can often trade at times that suit me better so excited for this year.
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@Shannon-Townsend sounds positive overall then! I always find the end of season stuff tricky but luckily the summer leagues are about to kick in, my favourite leagues to trade!
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@Martin LTD been going well and BTTS back on track after a slow few months but overs i am tracking been struggling...
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@Alastair-Todd Yeh those days are brutal, especially when they come in a batch, its not fun his trading thing at times, but I always try to think about the times where I have been on a long run, I use these times when I have lost to keep me grounded and remind me its variance and thats a bitch.
