*****New Football Thread*****
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@Shannon-Townsend stats wise they looked good but I may have a word with myself when I review them because Dortmund a little up and down this year .. maybe hindsight on my part but will review the trades tomorrow and decide if I'd do the same again or not.. I'm getting better at accepting random results happen but like to take a look back after each trading day.. especially where bits go wrong
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@Mark-Maguire I had Dortmund and Atletico on LTD as well... bad day from what i thought were my two nailed on picks.
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Got caught on Dortmund - stayed in and disallowed goal on 90 mins. Out with marginally better than break even on Atletico as they are down to ten men. Good day on the overs
LTD
Dortmund vs Mainz
Atletico vs Getafe
01.5 Split
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt
02.5 Split Stake
Inglostadt vs Aue
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Got one today. Lay under 1.5 Slough:
2-0 now
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Good find
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@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Quick tip if anyone fancies it......
Kocaelispor 0-0 Bodrum Belediyesi Bodrumspor currently HT
Over 0.5 goals currently at 1.4 huge odds based on the below stats I would have thought!
Flown in! Happy days!
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A couple on the list to watch tonight
LTD
Dortmund vs Mainz
Atletico vs Getafe01.5 Split Stake Out after 70 if no goal
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt
02.5 Split Stake Out after 60 if no goal
Inglostadt vs Aue
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt -
Home Win:
19:45 - Dortmund v Mainz
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Got one today. Lay under 1.5 Slough:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Played around with a filter on it, adding in ELO.
I'd want the away less than 1 though!
Yes, all my away teams will have less than one. Basically, you’re looking for away teams that struggle to score on their travels.
Away teams more than one, would probably be a good indicator for the BTTS market
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Ryan I do back the 01.5 too (if stats are up there) mainly tho the 01.5 % is something I calculate for matches for my LTD filter as a big influence on my decision making in terms of which to trade on the ltd .. Your fault.. what has to happen !
I separately calculate 01.5, 02.5 and FHG % for my 01.5 and 02.5 filters
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@Mark-Maguire We need to talk about this!!!
That looks amazing, I love that! Backing the over 1.5?
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@Ryan its interesting this because this is almost exactly the tweaking I've been playing with on my LTD .. my latest maths is that if the Over 1.5 probability (derived from the home goals/away goals is above 60% and the Home probability based on ELO is over 70% or away probability is over 61% .. my strike rate goes up to 90% on Set and Forget from 85% .
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Played around with a filter on it, adding in ELO.
I'd want the away less than 1 though!
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@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson Thats a nice way to look at them!
simplistic as always!
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@Akiva-Anderson Thats a nice way to look at them!
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@Akiva-Anderson for what it’s worth Atlanta is on my LTD list to look at
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Anyone any luck with backing Home Wins?
I like backing teams from around 1.32 - 1.60. and Average Home / Away Goals
There are two matches tonight:
19:45 - Atalanta (1.31) v Salternitana. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 1.71 v 0.57
20:00 - Girona (1.58) v Alaves. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 2.25 v 0.50
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...
