*****New Football Thread*****

Richard Latimer

Just these today. Lay under 1.5:

Chris King

Thanks @Adam noticed a couple of matches early this morning on my selections for a LTD filter. Nice addition.

Adam

We've added a bunch of women's leagues to the software on the request of a few people. These are the ones we've added so far (these are the league names on Betfair, they're basically the top women's leagues for each country):

"Australian A-League Women"
"Danish Women's Matches"
"English FA Women's Super League 1"
"French Women's Matches"
"Italian Serie A (W)"
"Scottish Women's Matches"
"Spanish Women's Matches"

We have match history going back to 2019 for these, so a good few seasons. We've had to import a couple of thousand matches into the DB so there's a bit of a delay to the upload today, but the latest stats should be up this morning including these new leagues.

Enjoy!

Greg Mitchell

Todays selections

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Got an overnighter. Lay under 1.5:

Arse, but for someone being so careful these days I still missed one glaringly obvious thing in hindsight. I won't go into it because the extent to which I analyse my data and my losses doesn't quite compute with all.

Wouldn't do that one again though and sorry if anyone did happen to follow.

January is slow going!

Greg Mitchell

No selections today..

Greg Mitchell

Meatloaf yesterday..

Although didn't do the Tel Aviv match as odds were a bit dodgy, 2.68 for the over 3.5, too low.

? Offline

@Richard-Latimer yes, same, there is a bunch of data I filtered out my main filter early last year and I now wish I didn’t. Live and learn as they say. I haven’t used smart filters, I’ll look into it. Nice one

Richard Latimer

@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Simon-Bates This is the kind of question your database will answer once you have a sufficient amount of data - a few thousand results or more in that instance - few seasons. I personally only rely on my own data to answer questions of that specific nature and I wouldn't change anything that I am doing based on what other people do - too many variables. So my answer to your question would be, gather more data and be super consistent with your current approach for at least 6 months to a year, do not change anything until then, do not remove losing trades, leagues or anything from your master sheet (if you want to apply filters, start a new sheet with the filtered data and keep collecting data on the master), review your data every 6 months and the answer to your question will come to you. You might find out that while your strike rate was lower in December, the market was mispriced more often and value was greater for example (just a random example btw) or maybe December is a month worth avoiding in certain leagues....Who knows!

I have definitely made it harder for myself removing things in a blanket before realisng I could have tracked things in a different way. Now I collect everything I think I might use and like you said just filter it out. Same sheet but with smart filters I don't need to include on streamlined data agaIn until I'm sure I should. Just a case of filling cells with a different colour for me.

Richard Latimer

Got an overnighter. Lay under 1.5:

? Offline

@Simon-Bates This is the kind of question your database will answer once you have a sufficient amount of data - a few thousand results or more in that instance - few seasons. I personally only rely on my own data to answer questions of that specific nature and I wouldn't change anything that I am doing based on what other people do - too many variables. So my answer to your question would be, gather more data and be super consistent with your current approach for at least 6 months to a year, do not change anything until then, do not remove losing trades, leagues or anything from your master sheet (if you want to apply filters, start a new sheet with the filtered data and keep collecting data on the master), review your data every 6 months and the answer to your question will come to you. You might find out that while your strike rate was lower in December, the market was mispriced more often and value was greater for example (just a random example btw) or maybe December is a month worth avoiding in certain leagues....Who knows!

Akiva Anderson

Watched the Bristol City v West Ham match last night. West Ham didn't look interested, but Benrahma is a f*****g disgrace. I'll be livid if I was a West Ham supporter

Greg Mitchell

(Updated) Now three selections:

Greg Mitchell

Just the one match played last night.

Stephen Hancox

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Stephen-Hancox he was once the best manager in the world, I think that he is a busted flush now, may win the odd trophy, I would argue the last major trophy he won was the 14/15 premier league nearly a decade ago. Probably tactically more than anything, don't think his style is effective in the modern game.

and Mourinho sacked

Ha ha I had a feeling this morning that you might mention this. Left after 2.5 years after reaching 2 European finals and winning 1 of them.

I heard he'd said last month that he has nowhere left to prove anything apart from Germany so has been orchestrating this scenario it seems. Where does he go now? Germany? Surely not England again. Or perhaps time for international management?

Greg Mitchell

@Arran-Shackell Its a little difficult for me to just give you the criteria, I have probably over complicated it, but its how I roll.

Basically, this is how I work:

I have 51 different mini-strategies in the BTC software which are a mixture of the presets, ones that have been discussed/published on here, some from other websites etc etc.

I also have 6 mini strategies based on calculations on the BTC Football Ratings.

I allocate each of these mini-strategies to one of my main strategies, so for example, My FHG strategy has a total of 20 mini-strategies allocated to it.

Then each day I download all the mini-strategy selections allocating each to a main strategy, so for example on my list for today Oldham v Boreham Wood has 5 mini FHG strategies. For me to consider any mini strategy selection, the match must have at least 3 mini strategies before it gets allocated to a main strategy.

I then look at the average historical strike rate for the 5 mini-strategies and also the historical strike rate for all 5 as a combination. I also include a historical league strike rate for my Main Strategies regardless of whether the games have been picked up by a mini strategy. So for example, the Strike Rate for FHG in all National League Matches which have been picked up by at least 1 of the mini strategies since I started recording is 86%.

If all three strike rates meet my minimum % then its a selection.

That all sounds very complicated, but I have it all set up on Excel, just download the Software Selections and Football Ratings every morning, paste them into my spreadsheet and a quick check that everything makes sense and away we go. An absolute maximum of 30 minutes every day.

Hope that makes sense?

Arran Shackell

@Greg-Mitchell

Hi Greg. I’d be interested to know the criteria for the FHG if you’re willing to share please?

Martin

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Stephen-Hancox he was once the best manager in the world, I think that he is a busted flush now, may win the odd trophy, I would argue the last major trophy he won was the 14/15 premier league nearly a decade ago. Probably tactically more than anything, don't think his style is effective in the modern game.

and Mourinho sacked

Greg Mitchell

Tentative Selections today:

Simon Bates

Of all my real trade and paper trade strategies I've been doing the last 3 months I've noticed that December was awful on results, i know its only 3 months of my own testing but every strategy was down, results were all over the place, November and, so far January, are all how I wanted to see my filter results, is this just a coincidence on all the strategies I'm doing/testing or has anyone else noticed this with theirs.
Long term traders, have you noticed, looking at your data, are certain months rubbish for your strategies, just wanting to know for future knowledge as so to avoid or lessen my trades for them months.