*****New Football Thread*****
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@Martin Are they not tips??
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@Mark-Maguire never fear posting your trades, we take responsibility for our own trades!
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@Ryan Cheers again .. and for all the help!!
Aim now is to be accountable here. In the past I struggled when I went through periods of maybe over posting my trades and ending up feeling responsible when they went wrong.
However three years in and the headline is that my focus remains football with some learning on the horse racing in the background. Without repeating too much of what I've said in the past ..
I have 4 (yes 4) versions of an Over 2.5 strategy - nuanced but have never dropped them because they have strike rates of between 86% and 89% individually tested/traded with between 500 and 2000 trades. I have used ELO and other stats (Poisson) to narrow down final selection and most important with mind set the focus is minimise losing trades and maximise wins (sounds simple and obvious but...) key is to trust the strike rate as well as stay very disciplined with in play stats and indicators getting out when I should.
Then I have an LTD inspired by Ryan added ELO to Betgreen and thats got a strike rate on set and forget of 84% - which goes up to 86% with home favourites - I can improve profit by using stop losses and monitoring in play and am also using analysis of leagues and countries to dictate which I trade.. example strike rate Belgium 89% Denmark 69%, Strike Rate Bundesliga 88% Bundesliga 2 92% .. aim here is to minimise losing trades and improve final selection.
Then an o1.5 inspired by Keith. SR is 90% at present over 1500 trades - challenge here is the concept of value and how to trade more efficiently to maximise return. With the SR it may be one I look to automate.
Then finally testing an Under2.5 strategy with a view to get out after 20mins/half an hour - potential to automate .. its early days on this but Unders are of interest generally speaking and will definitely be developing strategies on these, both from start and as a reaction to goals because my deep dive into stats tells me there are sweet spots where you can expect a 15-20 minute gap between goals.. but far too early to celebrate on this.
Overall therefore I will look to post selections, rationale and results where I can, as well as learning from everyone here .
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@Mark-Maguire Welcome back! Excited to hear of the full time news and will be good to see what happens next for you buddy.
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@Richard-Latimer Cool man, all the best for the coming weeks/months.
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@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer I was going to ask if this was a raw spreadsheet or if you had done a bit of back fitting based on your analysis of results. That makes sense. I think around 90% is possible, that’s my current average on backing o1.5 and ShG but only on 300 actual trades. Not sure that it’ll stay this high, but it doesn’t really matter as long as the price is right.
I basically look at everything from combinations of goals scored/conceded to h2h, what has happened and when as well as current over % with when the last under/0-0 was etc.
Raw data is coming in around 82-83%.
But if any part of what I'm looking at isn't profitable then I won't accept that, hence the difference.
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@Richard-Latimer I was going to ask if this was a raw spreadsheet or if you had done a bit of back fitting based on your analysis of results. That makes sense. I think around 90% is possible, that’s my current average on backing o1.5 and ShG but only on 300 actual trades. Not sure that it’ll stay this high, but it doesn’t really matter as long as the price is right.
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@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer Hey, I am confused, you have a 97% strike rate on the lay under 1.5? Lost 16 trades in over 550 matches? Am I reading your spreadsheet right? This is quite remarkable, to say the least!
You are reading it right but it's theoretical at present unfortunately.
I analyse every single loss in full detail. If I can find a logical reason to remove it from selections I will do so.
Hence all the other tabs informing my decision. I don't believe 97% is possible but I do believe eventually 90%+ will be.
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@Richard-Latimer Hey, I am confused, you have a 97% strike rate on the lay under 1.5? Lost 16 trades in over 550 matches? Am I reading your spreadsheet right? This is quite remarkable, to say the least!
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
This for a tiny profit on the month:
Lay over 2.5
Longterm I may go back to laying over 1.5 on these but 2.5 seems the safe and steady route for now, if not the most aggressive and rewarding.
3 shots on target, 3 goals. Didn't quite make it back to break even. Need a big push for Nov/Dec but still in profit for the year importantly.
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This for a tiny profit on the month:
Lay over 2.5
Longterm I may go back to laying over 1.5 on these but 2.5 seems the safe and steady route for now, if not the most aggressive and rewarding.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Akiva-Anderson thank you sir .. enjoying catching up on your contributions as ever .. and excited about challenge ahead. Its been the best part of three years preparing so now time to do it.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Now then ! Just a quick hello to old friends and new .. been "away for a few months" .. sorting stuff out .. missed you lot and now I'm back it looks like someone has rearranged things while I've been away... so will have to navigate my way around that
Spent the last three months finishing my commercial work in football, finalising my strategies trading and continuing work in France to now officially be trading full time albeit alongside the security of income from the French stuff.. so fingers crossed for exciting times ahead.
Good to be back.
Welcome back!!
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Now then ! Just a quick hello to old friends and new .. been "away for a few months" .. sorting stuff out .. missed you lot and now I'm back it looks like someone has rearranged things while I've been away... so will have to navigate my way around that
Spent the last three months finishing my commercial work in football, finalising my strategies trading and continuing work in France to now officially be trading full time albeit alongside the security of income from the French stuff.. so fingers crossed for exciting times ahead.
Good to be back.
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@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I have noticed you like your A League. I am never up in time on the weekend.
I love the A-League. The quality isn't great, but it's a good honest game of football.
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I have noticed you like your A League. I am never up in time on the weekend.
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Pretty much break even today
Lay under 1.5 1/2
Lay over 2.5 1/1 -
@nick said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer Do you think the overs are now more profitable because we have this greater amount of extra time since the new rules came in and obviously this hits the unders?
Can't be sure but not really. This weekend threw up some real freak things which basically never happen. Plus if the goals come before injury time you can't say it's relevant.
6 goals in 30 minutes when the game is 0-0. That's mental.
For my unders lays, nothing has changed other than I'm getting more and more data and it's starting to become more robust. Plus limiting my liability by laying under 2.5 means I can stake a little higher and take the high priced games I was leaving on the table.
I did notice a while back the correlation between price and how often 3 goals+ would be scored. I just hadn't done anything about it.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
