*****New Football Thread*****

[Shannon Townsend]

@Mark-Maguire I had Dortmund and Atletico on LTD as well... bad day from what i thought were my two nailed on picks.

[Mark Maguire]

Got caught on Dortmund - stayed in and disallowed goal on 90 mins. Out with marginally better than break even on Atletico as they are down to ten men. Good day on the overs

LTD

Dortmund vs Mainz
Atletico vs Getafe

01.5 Split

Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt

02.5 Split Stake
Inglostadt vs Aue
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Got one today. Lay under 1.5 Slough:

2-0 now

[Arran Shackell]

@Alex-Rule

Good find

[Martin]

@Alex-Rule had a bit on that it was a great spot!

[Alex Rule]

@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Quick tip if anyone fancies it......

Kocaelispor 0-0 Bodrum Belediyesi Bodrumspor currently HT

Over 0.5 goals currently at 1.4 huge odds based on the below stats I would have thought!

Flown in! Happy days!

[Alex Rule]

Quick tip if anyone fancies it......

Kocaelispor 0-0 Bodrum Belediyesi Bodrumspor currently HT

Over 0.5 goals currently at 1.4 huge odds based on the below stats I would have thought!

[Mark Maguire]

A couple on the list to watch tonight

LTD

Dortmund vs Mainz
Atletico vs Getafe

01.5 Split Stake Out after 70 if no goal

Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt

02.5 Split Stake Out after 60 if no goal

Inglostadt vs Aue
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt

[Akiva Anderson]

Home Win:

19:45 - Dortmund v Mainz

[Richard Latimer]

Got one today. Lay under 1.5 Slough:

[Akiva Anderson]

@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Played around with a filter on it, adding in ELO.

@Akiva-Anderson

I'd want the away less than 1 though!

Yes, all my away teams will have less than one. Basically, you’re looking for away teams that struggle to score on their travels.

Away teams more than one, would probably be a good indicator for the BTTS market

[Mark Maguire]

@Ryan I do back the 01.5 too (if stats are up there) mainly tho the 01.5 % is something I calculate for matches for my LTD filter as a big influence on my decision making in terms of which to trade on the ltd .. Your fault.. what has to happen !

I separately calculate 01.5, 02.5 and FHG % for my 01.5 and 02.5 filters

[Ryan]

@Mark-Maguire We need to talk about this!!!

That looks amazing, I love that! Backing the over 1.5?

[Mark Maguire]

@Ryan its interesting this because this is almost exactly the tweaking I've been playing with on my LTD .. my latest maths is that if the Over 1.5 probability (derived from the home goals/away goals is above 60% and the Home probability based on ELO is over 70% or away probability is over 61% .. my strike rate goes up to 90% on Set and Forget from 85% .

[Ryan]

Played around with a filter on it, adding in ELO.

@Akiva-Anderson

I'd want the away less than 1 though!

[Akiva Anderson]

@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson Thats a nice way to look at them!

simplistic as always!

[Ryan]

@Akiva-Anderson Thats a nice way to look at them!

[Mark Maguire]

@Akiva-Anderson for what it’s worth Atlanta is on my LTD list to look at

[Akiva Anderson]

Anyone any luck with backing Home Wins?

I like backing teams from around 1.32 - 1.60. and Average Home / Away Goals

There are two matches tonight:

19:45 - Atalanta (1.31) v Salternitana. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 1.71 v 0.57

20:00 - Girona (1.58) v Alaves. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 2.25 v 0.50

[Akiva Anderson]

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!

Do you perform?

No, it's my daughter. She loves musical theatre and I transport her to rehearsals and to here performances.

She's hopefully making a cameo appearance on the BBC after Christmas