*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

@Nick-Segura appreciate the message ..still learning plenty myself but limiting losses is huge for me... I've said elsewhere there is a brilliant book by a Stock Market trader Tom Hougaard called Best Loser Wins.. its about mentality and discipline but amongst the many good messages his clarity about 90% of traders in the markets being loss making largely because even though they have a good strike rate (of 70% plus) their losing trades are so much bigger than their winning trades that they end up in loss.. so focusing on reducing the impact of the (inevitable) losing trades and maximising the winning trades is just as important as a decent strategy .

? Offline

@Mark-Maguire Hey, I read a few of your posts, we trade more or less the same markets. Just wanted to say thanks for sharing about your approach to trading in such detail, I picked up a few really interesting things around reducing liability and stop loss. Obvious things that I have ignored in the past. I went through my O1.5 spreadsheets for some backtesting and found out that implementing a stop loss when there's been no goals by HT would have made me a considerable amount of money. Fairly obvious but for some reasons I kept focusing on the wrong things. So, again, thanks for sharing in such detail.

Richard Latimer

RIP Venables. Another one very much out-of the blue.

Mark Maguire

Amongst mine today will be

LTD

Gorica vs Rudes
Anderlecht vs RWDM

01.5

Alkmaar vs Volendam
Sarpsborg vs Molde

02.5 Split Stake

Anderlecht vs RWDM
Heidenheim vs Bochum
Alkmaar vs Volendam

Richard Latimer

Very very slow weekend even if I was taking all my selections. One today. Lay under 1.5 Hoffenheim:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Just this lay under 1.5 for me tomorrow:

Will take up to price of 7.4. If it's over that I'll more than likely lay under 2.5 (max price 3.5 - leave unmatched to go inplay if 3.5 not available).

Ends 1-2 so another win.

Only one tomorrow for me. Lay under 1.5:

1-1 so green day

Mark Maguire

Thats me for the day.. decent day:

LTD

Chesterfield vs Eastleigh
Olympiakos vs panetolikos
lask vs Wattens

01.5

Wrexham vs Morecambe
Freiburg vs Darmstadt
Atletico vs Mallorca

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Zilina vs Kosice (will also be FHG trade)
Luzern vs Winterhur
Swindon vs Mansfield
Bastia vs Auxerre

FHG

Ajax vs Vitesse
Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach

Martin

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse great work thanks for sharing!

Mark Maguire

Quite a lot to choose from today .. mine likely to include these:

LTD

Chesterfield vs Eastleigh
Olympiakos vs panetolikos
lask vs Wattens

01.5

Wrexham vs Morecambe
Freiburg vs Darmstadt
Atletico vs Mallorca

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Zilina vs Kosice (will also be FHG trade)
Luzern vs Winterhur
Swindon vs Mansfield
Bastia vs Auxerre

FHG

Ajax vs Vitesse
Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

Hello all,

In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.

Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.

I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.

Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.

It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:

The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.

When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.

The updated filter is as follows:

The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.

It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.

Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.

Dan MacKinnon

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson If you crack the FHG market, you should get a BTC knighthood.

The triple crown of BTC - S&F, SHG & FHG

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

This post is deleted!

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Akiva-Anderson If you crack the FHG market, you should get a BTC knighthood.

Akiva Anderson

Will go for a FHG in the Sydney derby here. Will also go o1.5 goals

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

19:45 - Larne v Glentoran. Larne to win at 2.15 (now around 2.02)

Both full-time teams. Larne are in great form. Glentoran, not so much. Glens have a fair amount of injuries and the supporters are unhappy with the manager and board. It's a toxic atmosphere here in East Belfast.

Larne are a great price.

2-1 Larne. Easy enough to be honest. 2.15 was too high a price for Larne.

Cracking night all round lads well done!

Akiva Anderson

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

19:45 - Larne v Glentoran. Larne to win at 2.15 (now around 2.02)

Both full-time teams. Larne are in great form. Glentoran, not so much. Glens have a fair amount of injuries and the supporters are unhappy with the manager and board. It's a toxic atmosphere here in East Belfast.

Larne are a great price.

2-1 Larne. Easy enough to be honest. 2.15 was too high a price for Larne.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Just this lay under 1.5 for me tomorrow:

Will take up to price of 7.4. If it's over that I'll more than likely lay under 2.5 (max price 3.5 - leave unmatched to go inplay if 3.5 not available).

Ends 1-2 so another win.

Only one tomorrow for me. Lay under 1.5:

Mark Maguire

LTD

Hamburg vs Braunschweig
Breda vs Den Bosch

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Sonderjyske vs Naestved
Breda vs Den Bosch goal came too late (luckily) loss covered by LTD trade

01.5

PSG vs Monaco will watch in play stats

Mark Maguire

A couple of interest tonight

LTD

Hamburg vs Braunschweig
Breda vs Den Bosch

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Sonderjyske vs Naestved
Breda vs Den Bosch

01.5

PSG vs Monaco will watch in play stats

Akiva Anderson

19:45 - Larne v Glentoran. Larne to win at 2.15 (now around 2.02)

Both full-time teams. Larne are in great form. Glentoran, not so much. Glens have a fair amount of injuries and the supporters are unhappy with the manager and board. It's a toxic atmosphere here in East Belfast.

Larne are a great price.