*****New Football Thread*****

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I find myself constantly revisiting the rules and trying to balance rules against the inevitable random nature of some results - so there are Stats Busters where all the stats in game say goal but its nil nil.. but overtime start to accept those as exactly that .. I was annoyed about the German game though because they are next to each other in the league and that often suggests a tighter game

We just have to accept that losses occur, that these losses are not going to be evenly distributed, and that these losses are largely irrelevant if the underlying trading idea is valid.

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Hello, has anyone recorded the Goal Supremacy ratings for the fixtures below?
25/11/2023 12:30 Manchester City England
25/11/2023 13:00 Rayo Vallecano Spain

Thanks

Mark Maguire

@Dan-MacKinnon agreed Dan.. I do find it useful to try and arrive at the mindset of understanding where the result is random as against where there is a pattern to be found .. I'm constantly using Countif functions to examine results and then vary the parameters to see if my latest daft interpretation of results is a figment of my imagination or something that will improve selection

Dan MacKinnon

@Mark-Maguire @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I got caught out by that game too.

Sometimes you just have to hold your hands up and remind yourself that you can't win them all. Also, would you spend this much time analysing the trades which shouldn't have won but did?

Then again, maybe I'm too laid back!

Mark Maguire

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I find myself constantly revisiting the rules and trying to balance rules against the inevitable random nature of some results - so there are Stats Busters where all the stats in game say goal but its nil nil.. but overtime start to accept those as exactly that .. I was annoyed about the German game though because they are next to each other in the league and that often suggests a tighter game

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Mark-Maguire I have an in play filter which I am testing. It applies where there is a game with either zero or one goal at half time but where there is an expectation of an 85% chance of +0.5G at FT or an 80% chance of a +1.5G at FT. Heidenheim V Bochum was on the list, so it got me too. The bit that has me kicking myself is that I did not implement my own rules about using the in play stats as a guideline for deciding whether to take the trade or not.

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

In a previous post, I also mentioned I was working on a +1.5G filter.

The basic idea is one I either stole from Martin or stole from discussions around one of the set and forgets- it is definitely not mine.

But what I wanted to do was to take a very simple idea and see what can be gained from tinkering with it.

The original basic idea is as follows:

Over the last 111 games, it has a strike rate of 80% and average odds of 1.34.

I decided to increase the FT +2.5 criterion to greater than or equal to 50%. This reduced the number of selections to exactly 100 but increased the strike rate to 84%, with a slight drop in the average odds to 1.338.

I'll come back in a few hundred selections to see where we stand.

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Scott-Higgins said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse lovely results, how many points profit?

I only did about half of them but I ended about 2 points up on this filter.

Mark Maguire

Decent day despite the nil nil in Germany which I blame myself for because league positions being tight is a warning sign I ignored.

LTD

Gorica vs Rudes
Anderlecht vs RWDM

01.5

Alkmaar vs Volendam
Sarpsborg vs Molde

02.5 Split Stake

Anderlecht vs RWDM
Heidenheim vs Bochum
Alkmaar vs Volendam

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@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse lovely results, how many points profit?

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Hello all,

In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.

Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.

I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.

Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.

It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:

The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.

When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.

The updated filter is as follows:

The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.

It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.

Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.

An update on how this filter did over the weekend- 26 SHGS out of 30.

Germany 3. Liga 25/11/2023 13:00 Ingolstadt RW Essen 0
Germany Bundesliga 25/11/2023 14:30 Dortmund B. Monchengladbach 1
Germany Bundesliga 25/11/2023 14:30 SV Werder Bremen Bayer Leverkusen 1
England Premier League 25/11/2023 15:00 Nottingham Brighton 1
Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 25/11/2023 15:00 Coleraine C. Rangers 1
England National League 25/11/2023 15:00 Gateshead Southend 1
Scotland Premiership 25/11/2023 15:00 Dundee FC Hibernian 1
England League Two 25/11/2023 15:00 Grimsby Town Sutton 0
England League Two 25/11/2023 15:00 Wrexham Morecambe 1
England Premier League 25/11/2023 15:00 Burnley West Ham 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 25/11/2023 15:30 Excelsior Feyenoord 1
Turkey Super Lig 25/11/2023 16:00 Galatasaray Alanyaspor 1
Czech Republic FORTUNA:LIGA 25/11/2023 17:00 Slavia Prague Ceske Budejovice 1
Switzerland Super League 25/11/2023 17:00 Luzern Winterthur 1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 25/11/2023 17:15 Charleroi Westerlo 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 25/11/2023 17:45 Twente PSV 1
Denmark Superliga 25/11/2023 18:00 Viborg FC Copenhagen 1
France Ligue 2 25/11/2023 18:00 Bastia Auxerre 0
Poland Division 1 25/11/2023 18:15 Lublin R. Rzeszow 1
Germany 2. Bundesliga 25/11/2023 19:30 Dusseldorf Schalke 1
Ecuador Liga Pro 25/11/2023 23:00 Dep. Cuenca EL Nacional 1
South Korea K League 2 26/11/2023 6:00 Sangju Sangmu Seoul E. 0
Spain Laliga 26/11/2023 13:00 Villarreal Osasuna 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 26/11/2023 13:30 AZ Alkmaar Volendam 1
Switzerland Super League 26/11/2023 15:30 Servette Grasshoppers 1
Switzerland Super League 26/11/2023 15:30 Basel St. Gallen 1
Austria Bundesliga 26/11/2023 16:00 Rapid Vienna BW Linz 1
Norway Eliteserien 26/11/2023 16:00 Lillestrom Odd 1
Norway Eliteserien 26/11/2023 16:00 Sarpsborg 08 Molde 1
Poland Division 2 26/11/2023 16:30 LKS Lodz II Wisla Pulawy 1

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Very very slow weekend even if I was taking all my selections. One today. Lay under 1.5 Hoffenheim:

That's weird. 1-1 and betfair still have it is inplay. Useless twats!

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@Mark-Maguire I’ll check it out.Ta

Mark Maguire

@Richard-Latimer agreed .. had something very special in terms of his man management

Mark Maguire

@Nick-Segura appreciate the message ..still learning plenty myself but limiting losses is huge for me... I've said elsewhere there is a brilliant book by a Stock Market trader Tom Hougaard called Best Loser Wins.. its about mentality and discipline but amongst the many good messages his clarity about 90% of traders in the markets being loss making largely because even though they have a good strike rate (of 70% plus) their losing trades are so much bigger than their winning trades that they end up in loss.. so focusing on reducing the impact of the (inevitable) losing trades and maximising the winning trades is just as important as a decent strategy .

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@Mark-Maguire Hey, I read a few of your posts, we trade more or less the same markets. Just wanted to say thanks for sharing about your approach to trading in such detail, I picked up a few really interesting things around reducing liability and stop loss. Obvious things that I have ignored in the past. I went through my O1.5 spreadsheets for some backtesting and found out that implementing a stop loss when there's been no goals by HT would have made me a considerable amount of money. Fairly obvious but for some reasons I kept focusing on the wrong things. So, again, thanks for sharing in such detail.

Richard Latimer

RIP Venables. Another one very much out-of the blue.

Mark Maguire

Amongst mine today will be