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*****New Football Thread*****

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
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4.9k Posts 104 Posters 68.9k Views
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    wrote on last edited by Martin
    #1

    Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

    Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

    Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

    We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

    FHG = First Half Goal
    SHG = Second Half Goal
    LTD = Lay The Draw
    LCS = Lay Current Score

    My testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0

    M ? S MartinM Rick WatsonR 142 Replies Last reply
    👍
    4
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Paul Sheridan last edited by
    #2

    @Paul-Sheridan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

    Bournemouth seem to be selling everyone this season. That's Ouattara gone now to Brentford.

    mad how much money Bournemouth must have now!

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Andy Donnelly last edited by
    #3

    @Andy-Donnelly I think thats a great shout!!! I think they are going to have a solid season as well, they have added a few good pieces. They were also the ones I had last season as the ones to close the gap. They started strong too.

    I am with you on United, although all of me wants them to finish bottom 10 again ahahah

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Ryan last edited by
    #4

    @Ryan Yeh understand a lot of the teams outside of the top 4 have had difficult summers but until Utd improve defence, midfield. Think it’s a big jump for them to be 5th. Have them more around 7th-9th.

    Looking at fixtures, tempted to back Chelsea to win league with view to removing liability prior to their away game at Liverpool around week 7. They seem to have much the easier start to the other top 3.

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Andy Donnelly last edited by
    #5

    @Andy-Donnelly I am in 100% agreement with you there, They are not the 5th best team but look at what the other teams have to cope with...

    Newcastle have champs league this season so that will be brutal - If I was Eddie Howe I would 100% focus on getting back in the champs league over actually competing in it this season, the Swiss system is a lot of games. Plus they are about to potentially lose Isak.

    United have nothing other than the league to focus on lol

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Ryan last edited by
    #6

    @Ryan Still can’t quite believe that the markets have Man Utd as the 5th best team going into the new season.

    How they are rated better than Villa at this time in particular is beyond me.

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Ryan last edited by
    #7

    @Ryan Hope you are right. If anyone stays up probably will be Leeds.

    Not sure Sunderland or Burnley can score enough goals to survive

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote last edited by
    #8

    One thing I always think about and I think everybody else should as well....

    Premier League teams buy players from the teams around them so that team doesn't have them.

    Newcastle did it for years, Wood from Burnley, Elanga from Notts F.

    United bought Mbeumo and Cunha.

    Not saying that the players are bad but it weakens the teams around them which makes it easier for them!

    It has a knock on as well, Joao Pedro gone from Brighton, united looking at Baleba.... Brighton and Brentford weaker, Bournemouth weaker....

    It makes it easier. Prem is so tough as a league.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Andy Donnelly last edited by
    #9

    @Andy-Donnelly For me first time in a while the promoted teams actually look better, like Leeds have just bought units lol I like that!

    Brentford worry me slightly, really well run club but I think they said they would sell one of Wissa and Mbuemo and now both look to be leaving.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Paul Sheridan last edited by
    #10

    @Paul-Sheridan Bloody wild that!!!

    They've literally sold their whole back line as well, I do like their keeper. But I actually think Kepa will be a big loss for them!

    Semenyo and Kerkez seemed to have aright understanding as well.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • P Offline
    P Offline
    Paul Sheridan
    wrote last edited by
    #11

    Bournemouth seem to be selling everyone this season. That's Ouattara gone now to Brentford.

    RyanR MartinM 2 Replies Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Andy Donnelly last edited by
    #12

    @Andy-Donnelly not great for the league for it to keep happening but it does, yes it's a worry for Brentford but they seem a well run club, like Brighton and Bournemouth seem to be able to keep it up year on year.

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Martin last edited by
    #13

    @Martin Yeh decent shout. I still think it’s likely that the promoted sides all go down. Hope I’m not right tho.

    Brentford look in trouble but they are a very well run club so feel like they will make some transfers as just about get it right. Wolves possible other candidate but still think they have a stronger squad than the promoted sides even without Cunha

    MartinM RyanR 2 Replies Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Andy Donnelly last edited by
    #14

    @Andy-Donnelly Leeds at 2.56 to get relegated, no certainty of course but I'd have it close to evens.

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Online
    A Online
    Alastair Todd
    replied to Martin last edited by
    #15

    @Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

    Get in Bromley!

    There speaks a Norwich fan 🥺

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Andy Donnelly last edited by
    #16

    @Andy-Donnelly Hasn't Donna agreed to go to City this morning?

    I 100% think the market is overreacting to Man united business both Cunha and Mbuemo over performed their XG last season and at some point they revert to the mean, of course maybe they will level up.... Mbuemo I think is ready to step up he's great I think, but he's at united.

    They will 100% benefit from no Europe but they have a tough start and they still have issues with mentality there.

    I have Villa, Spurs above them. Newcastle are a really tricky one.... back to back champs league is huge and they need to unlock PSR but they are so incompetent at signing anybody it's almost a joke....

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    wrote last edited by Andy Donnelly
    #17

    What are people liking the look of in the outrights for the new premier league season out of interest?

    My two main takes are:

    Markets overreacting to Man Utd transfer business. My opinion would possibly change if Baleba and Donnarumma signed and maybe the market is pricing this in but at time of writing will be finding ways to lay Man Utd right now. I’d have Villa and Spurs as well as the top 4 of last season ahead of Utd. Probably Newcastle as well if they were to sign a decent striker.

    Markets underestimating Nottingham Forest.
    Everyone seems to think they are a one season wonder but they’ve only lost Elanga and have made a few decent signings. Think 2.9 for top ten finish and even 8.0 for top 6 are crazy good prices imo. I can see easily being top 10

    RyanR MartinM 2 Replies Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Martin last edited by
    #18

    Get in Bromley!

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Martin last edited by
    #19

    @Martin I would be game for that, more and more people I speak with are watching that league.

    Was chatting to a lad I know this morning in the gym, who came to a couple of Liverpool games with me who said he is started going to watch Sheffield United in person a lot more.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Martin last edited by
    #20

    Enjoyed watching more Championship football than I usually would this weekend, wonder if the season should start even earlier to capture more of the football fans who mainly watch Premier League before that season starts?

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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