*****New Football Thread*****
-
@Ryan Really interested in your recent Youtube video about dutching the correct score market.
I made the filter you shared on Youtube and picked out a couple of games to try it on tonight.
Blackburn v Bristol - goal scored in the 35th minute - cashed out following the goal for a -19.5% return on my initial stake.
Stoke v Swansea - HT 0-0 - cashed out at HT for a +64% return on my initial stake.I will hold my hands up, I have never dutched correct scores before, but unless I traded this incorrectly or these were abnormal returns on the cash outs I got, presumably the strike rate for a 0-0 at HT wouldn't need to be very high to make a very decent return!?
-
For those of you discussing League Strike Rates attached is my table of League Strike Rates for the 5 strategies I am running based on the selections since I started recording scores properly (around July)
Thought you'd be interested.
-
@Alastair-Todd This is why I love this board. That match was a loser for me, but now I can go back over my data to see if the factor that you and Richard highlighted might be relevant in the case of other losers on the 1.5 goals filter I am developing.
-
@Alastair-Todd haha sod's law that would be but it's great you are thinking like this, this is the kind of further research that really improves a trader!
-
@Richard-Latimer Good point Richard. Which is precisely why I am not backing over 1.5 on the Konyaspor match this evening in the Turkish League, even though it came up on my filter. 60% of their H2H games in the software only had 1 goal. They'll probably score 5 now!
-
@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mark-Maguire The wretched Bundesliga just gave me a kicking with the Koln match as well. You would have thought they could have scored at least one goal!
Almost everything I look at now revolves around combinations of numbers as much as anything else. Koln was highlighted in my data but ruled out on account of the low amount of goals scored between the two of them and not just conceded.
I've stopped my lay over 1.5 for now but only while I complete my data so to speak. This for me would have been a lay over 1.5 if anything.
-
@Martin its interesting stuff - its where I want to really progress things in the final decision making - and part of that is the argument between randomness and stats - I feel like I'm finally getting to a place where I can start to spot the difference when I review my results
-
@Mark-Maguire if you had asked me to guess the two leagues I would have said Champ and Bund 2, very unpredicatable leagues in my experience!
-
@Martin interesting I went back on my analysis stats yesterday and looked - Bundesliga is par or above the Strike Rate for my all my filters - whereas Bundesliga 2 is overall below par - especially on one of my original 02.5 filters (10% below SR) and my Over 1.5 (12% below)
England is ok on my filters across LTD, O2.5 and 01.5 apart from 3% below SR on one 02.5 filter. But when I split the leagues the Championship is well below as is League Two whereas League One and the Premier League are above -
I need to do a deeper dive to work out how many trades for each league and how thats affecting the average but the overall trades is based upon 1500 trades for my main filters (250 for the newer versions).
-
@Mark-Maguire often find German leagues to be tough on my strategies, same with English ones!
-
@Alastair-Todd some funny results in Germany this weekend for sure - for what its worth games like that one I tend to be careful with despite stats.. namely two teams within a place of each other in the league, especially as the season progresses and they are in or around relegation - mentality can be "just don't lose" so they are games I'm wary of - not saying I wouldn't trade (or being wise after the fact) but would at least manage my staking, and/or wait until I got involved
-
@Mark-Maguire The wretched Bundesliga just gave me a kicking with the Koln match as well. You would have thought they could have scored at least one goal!
-
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay under 1.5:
2/3
First loss of December and it's only around a 1pt deficit on the day.
-
@Alastair-Todd thanks.. to be honest its one of those leagues thats up and down for me and probably should have been more cautious on it - no stats in the game so got out without too much damage
-
@Mark-Maguire Well done. The German Bundesliga 2 let me down two out of three times today!
-
Another decent day just let down by Elversberg vs Nurnberg
LTD
Eupen vs Genk
Sturm Graz vs Altach green with a few mins to go
Rijeka vs Belupo green after 2nd goal01.5 Split Stake out after 70 mins if no goal
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria
Rijeka vs Belupo
Luton vs Man City02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Elversberg vs Nürnberg
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria
Rijeka vs Belupo
Spurs vs Newcastle -
Lay under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Ok a few today:
LTD
Eupen vs Genk
Sturm Graz vs Altach
Rijeka vs Belupo01.5 Split Stake out after 70 mins if no goal
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria
Rijeka vs Belupo
Luton vs Man City02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Elversberg vs Nürnberg
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria
Rijeka vs Belupo
Spurs vs NewcastleOn overs I will generally green up on a goal, if the goal is in the first 25-30 mins green to free bet.
LTD I'll keep an eye in play... working towards set and forget but not there yet
