*****New Football Thread*****
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@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hello all,
In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.
Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.
I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.
Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.
It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:
The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.
When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.
The updated filter is as follows:
The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.
It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.
Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.
Just to update you on the SHG filter I have been testing.
We were 200 games in at the time of the first post and we are now 100 games later, so after 300 games it has a strike rate of 85%.
When I tighten up the filters - move the first filter to greater than or equal to 130- that goes to 87% but with 148 selections.
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A good day with another full house on these and some decent trades elsewhere having just greened up to free bet on the Dutch game. Enjoy days like this because sure as anything they aren't all like this
LTD
wrexham vs Colchester
Leipzig vs Hoffenheim01.5 Split
Augsburg vs Dortmund
Wrexham vs Colchester
Plymouth vs Rotherham
Hartlepool vs Chesterfield
Heerenveen vs Volendam02.5 split
Swansea vs Middlesboro
Southampton vs Blackburn
Baden vs Thun
Glentoran vs Newry -
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!
Do you perform?
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Many I'm semi sure about, only one where I have enough data to be confident enough.
Lay under 1.5 Bochum
Ends 3-0
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Ok I have a few today .. as usual lots to sort through:
LTD
wrexham vs Colchester
Leipzig vs Hoffenheim01.5 Split stake out after 70 mins if no goal
Augsburg vs Dortmund
Wrexham vs Colchester
Plymouth vs Rotherham
Hartlepool vs Chesterfield
Heerenveen vs Volendam02.5 split stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Swansea vs Middlesboro
Southampton vs Blackburn
Baden vs Thun
Glentoran vs Newry -
Going for a SHG in the Ipswich v Norwich match. 1-1 at HT. An entertaining match so far
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Many I'm semi sure about, only one where I have enough data to be confident enough.
Lay under 1.5 Bochum
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!
Anyway, there’s an overpriced team in the Irish league today.
15:00 - Glenavon v Linfield. Linfield to win at 1.51.
Part time team v full time team.
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@Mark-Maguire I'm impressed you know Taggy (and the other contacts you've mentioned in recent posts). Yeah Taggy has been around for 20 years now and he's done an amazing job employing Dolan, Inglethorp, Tisdale, Taylor as managers who have done well. All on a limited budget but with sensible decisions, like you say we're very well run. Caldwell started well and last year was no mean feat keeping us in league 1. It seems the injuries etc has got to him and he's lost the plot somewhat. I can't see us recovering from this but you never know. With his impressive 20 year record, if Taggy thinks Caldwell is still the right man to turn it round, then who am I to argue.
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@Stephen-Hancox You're a good club, well run - pretty much the only trust run model that has worked for any period of time.. Julian Tagg at your place is someone who I've known and respected for a long time.. you will be more patient than most with managers but it does feel something has to give .. albeit with your trading hat on - your gaffer staying in place means goals (cue 0-0 draw)
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If anyone would like a bit of lower league insight (if league 1 counts?) for a match on Saturday, I'm an Exeter City season ticket holder and things are really bad right now. We've had a horrendous injury list which affected the team badly initially, so bad that form hasn't recovered.
- 11 games in last 3 months have resulted in 2 draws and 9 defeats, 2 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- We never look like scoring, reason being we only have 1 recognised striker (James Scott) who has been awful, so the manager uses a centre back as a lone striker.
- Our captain (centre back) was sent off last week so is suspended tomorrow.
- Manager is hell bent on passing out from the keeper, admirable but allows the opposition to put pressure on constantly. At league 1 level you rarely get defenders who can pass well under pressure.
- Fans lost faith in the manager ages ago, atmosphere is becoming toxic at games.
- Manager appears to be losing the dressing room, we've had 5-0, 7-0 and 9-0 defeats this season already.
- Finally we're a trust run club, the elected board feel sorry for the manager and have publicly backed him saying he can have cash to buy strikers in January. So this could rumble on for a few months yet.
We play Stevenage away Saturday who are 3rd and flying, only conceded 5 in last 8. I can't see us scoring so have personally bet on Stevenage to win to nil. I still think Stevenage to win at 1.58 is also good value on BF.
Sod''s law, now I've written this a miracle will happen tomorrow and we'll get a result.
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Full house tonight, pleased and unusually stress free
LTD
Willem vs Helmond
01.5 out after 70 mins /split stake
Willem vs Helmond
02.5 Split out after 60 if no goal
Nijmegen vs Sittard
Cambuur vs Jong AZ -
A couple tonight
LTD
Willem vs Helmond
01.5 out after 70 mins /split stake
Willem vs Helmond
02.5 Split out after 60 if no goal
Nijmegen vs Sittard
Cambuur vs Jong AZ -
Nothing I'm confident enough on tomorrow. Just games I'm collecting data on.
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@Shannon-Townsend Dutch a fiver normally. Sometimes on Bet Angel so a stake can go under £1. Otherwise Ill just match them as close as I can...
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@Tony-Hastie are you putting different stakes on different scores to level out the overall profit? its a market i look at and enjoy watching videos about but not been brave enough to get involved yet...
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@Joseph-Henderson Yeah I waited, trusting the high percentage of HT score stats. Im most certainly in learner mode though. Looking at the in play stats helps with decisions...as does practice. Low stakes, doing stuff and seeing what happens! Ive definitely done a lot of that
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@Tony-Hastie Haha! Will have a further search on YouTube!
Did you essentially wait until half time regardless of if there was a goal or not in the first half before cashing out?
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@Tony-Hastie Yeh Martin is a beast with that market, I was going to tag him as well as he can follow up.
That’s something I am thinking with my videos coming, to show the stats and just some interesting things I have spotted so that it can get some ideas circulating Etc…
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@Joseph-Henderson If youve got a green its never incorrect
Im also using the filter and picking and choosing games. I chose 4 last night. 2 had early goals and I traded out for a loss at HT. 2 were 0-0 at HT and checking the inplay stats there wasnt a lot happening so I was happy to hold on, having 1-0 and 0-1 covered. Both resulted in nice collects. There are so many ways to trade the correct score market, its a matter of finding what suits you. Ryans video is a great starting point though. Martin has also done some CS stuff that might interest you. Searchable on youtube...
