*****New Football Thread*****
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A couple on the list to watch tonight
LTD
Dortmund vs Mainz
Atletico vs Getafe01.5 Split Stake Out after 70 if no goal
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt
02.5 Split Stake Out after 60 if no goal
Inglostadt vs Aue
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt -
Home Win:
19:45 - Dortmund v Mainz
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Got one today. Lay under 1.5 Slough:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Played around with a filter on it, adding in ELO.
I'd want the away less than 1 though!
Yes, all my away teams will have less than one. Basically, you’re looking for away teams that struggle to score on their travels.
Away teams more than one, would probably be a good indicator for the BTTS market
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Ryan I do back the 01.5 too (if stats are up there) mainly tho the 01.5 % is something I calculate for matches for my LTD filter as a big influence on my decision making in terms of which to trade on the ltd .. Your fault.. what has to happen !
I separately calculate 01.5, 02.5 and FHG % for my 01.5 and 02.5 filters
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@Mark-Maguire We need to talk about this!!!
That looks amazing, I love that! Backing the over 1.5?
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@Ryan its interesting this because this is almost exactly the tweaking I've been playing with on my LTD .. my latest maths is that if the Over 1.5 probability (derived from the home goals/away goals is above 60% and the Home probability based on ELO is over 70% or away probability is over 61% .. my strike rate goes up to 90% on Set and Forget from 85% .
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Played around with a filter on it, adding in ELO.
I'd want the away less than 1 though!
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@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson Thats a nice way to look at them!
simplistic as always!
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@Akiva-Anderson Thats a nice way to look at them!
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@Akiva-Anderson for what it’s worth Atlanta is on my LTD list to look at
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Anyone any luck with backing Home Wins?
I like backing teams from around 1.32 - 1.60. and Average Home / Away Goals
There are two matches tonight:
19:45 - Atalanta (1.31) v Salternitana. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 1.71 v 0.57
20:00 - Girona (1.58) v Alaves. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 2.25 v 0.50
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!
Do you perform?
No, it's my daughter. She loves musical theatre and I transport her to rehearsals and to here performances.
She's hopefully making a cameo appearance on the BBC after Christmas
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Took a beating this weekend, quite interesting though, my winning trades did not bring me enough to bring any profit or even cover my losses. Lost about 5 points over the weekend. It's part of it and I actually welcome the opportunity to look at myself and my trading. I have followed the plans set out at the beginning of each day and executed everything perfectly, but prices did not move much after goals were scored, even early goals when I took fairly big prices. Trades that would usually bring me 50/60% of my stake back only brought me about 30%. I also struggled to get in and out of my positions quickly enough, even on big fixtures. I have found that the liquidity was quite low over the weekend and betfair was particularly slow too. A few stakes were only partially match which is quite frustrating. I might look at using a software going forward. Can't afford to spend 5 minutes trying to enter/exit a position. Anyways, this was my debrief. We win some and lose some!
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@Mark-Maguire WOW
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Another good day LTD wise hopefully if anyone followed these you took green at 2-0 for Ajax..
LTD
My wait for odds on a couple of these
Fiorentina vs Verona
Trnava vs Michalovce
Genk vs Kortrijkjust taken green at 2-0
Ajax vs Zwolle (finished 2-2 so 
if you stayed in)01.5 Split Stake out after 70 mins if no goal, green up (if early green to free bet)
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Leverkusen vs Frankfurt02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal, green up
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Servette vs Lugano
St Gilloise vs Mechelen -
Really quiet weekend for me so after only 1 trade I exit with profit.
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Wary after two good days (there's always the leveller) but here goes anyway for today:
LTD
My wait for odds on a couple of these
Fiorentina vs Verona
Trnava vs Michalovce
Genk vs Kortrijk
Ajax vs Zwolle01.5 Split Stake out after 70 mins if no goal, green up (if early green to free bet)
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Leverkusen vs Frankfurt02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal, green up
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Servette vs Lugano
St Gilloise vs Mechelen - cautious staking after the home teams Thursday Night exploits -
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hello all,
In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.
Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.
I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.
Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.
It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:
The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.
When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.
The updated filter is as follows:
The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.
It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.
Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.
Just to update you on the SHG filter I have been testing.
We were 200 games in at the time of the first post and we are now 100 games later, so after 300 games it has a strike rate of 85%.
When I tighten up the filters - move the first filter to greater than or equal to 130- that goes to 87% but with 148 selections.
