*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

@Alex-Rule very quiet this week .. deep dive into the stats time for me

Andy Donnelly

@Alex-Rule A lot of countries with winter breaks as well.

Alex Rule

Is it just me or do the football selections seemed to have thinned out a fair bit in Jan? Is it just all the cup games that are on slowing down league fixtures?

Richard Latimer

@Trevor-H said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5:

1-1

You're doing really well with these! Less is more? Well done.

Less is definitely more at the moment but it will increase over time.

Trevor H

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5:

1-1

You're doing really well with these! Less is more? Well done.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5:

1-1

Stephen Hancox

@Martin it's amazing to think he's won trophies everywhere he's been since Porto 22 years ago except Spurs who sacked him days before the final. He upsets fans, media, players and coaches (and physios). Somehow he wins the trophies which keeps him going. I find it fascinating really. I think he gets just enough players and coaches etc on board with him to be effective with his football, however frustrating it may be to watch.

Martin

@Stephen-Hancox he was once the best manager in the world, I think that he is a busted flush now, may win the odd trophy, I would argue the last major trophy he won was the 14/15 premier league nearly a decade ago. Probably tactically more than anything, don't think his style is effective in the modern game.

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5:

Stephen Hancox

@Martin passed him by in terms of tactics? Or trophies?

Joseph Henderson

@Mark-Maguire thanks for your detailed response below, really useful!

Martin

@Mark-Maguire amazes me there are still people out there who don't think the game has passed him by now

Mark Maguire

@Martin yep I'm starting the rumour Mourinho trades under 2.5 goals

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson that's Mourinho for you!

Akiva Anderson

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

SHG in the Roma v Atalanta match. 1-1 at HT

FFS. Nothing like the First Half. Ball was hardly in-play the second half

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Roma v Atalanta match. 1-1 at HT

Mark Maguire

All good apart from no FHG at Panathanaikos..

LTD

Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos
Galatasaray vs Konyaspor

01.5 Split Stake

Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos

02.5 Split Stake

Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos
Olympiakos vs AEK
Will also dabble with FHG Panathanaikos

Mark Maguire

@Joseph-Henderson at the risk of sounding a little bit sketchy it depends on the game, the odds and inplay action.

But to give some clarity the filter I have is currently running at a strike rate of about 84% if I were to just set and forget but I have been examining the stats and now know that if the home favourite is odds of less than 1.75 that climbs to 85%, or away favourite needs to be less than 1.65.

Then I look at other factors - sorry if this sounds nerdy or over the top on stats - there are definitely simpler ways to trade.. but for example if over 1.5 probability is over 90% then the strike rate climbs to 87%. If ELO home probability is over 75% similarly that takes strike rate to 87%. And away ELO probability over 65% =87% SR.

So having said all that to take the Panathanaikos game as an example - the stats are - home odds of 1.19, ELO Probability 77%, o1.5 % 88% .. (for other filters I also have an 02.5 % of 77% and a FHG % of 97% - all of which mean this is a reasonably strong trade for me - the odds of 8.4 are too big to lay at the moment - so I will probably back the home team to start with, as well as entering my goals trade. Then when and if odds come down and the inplay action suggests the home team are dominant I will get involved at 6 or below - for more marginal trades I want better odds than that (around 3.7-3.8).

Then depending on how the game goes I will stay in if the dominance continues - on a goal for the home team I will stay in if there is plenty of the game to go and trade out if they go 2-0 up for example. I've done a lot of work on meaningful in play stats and am becoming increasingly disciplined at getting out for a small loss if the action is flat. I think it averages around 7 shots (mixed between on target and off target ideally 3 on target) for a goal so if its half time and the stats are half that for example I either get out or am reducing my staking.

Sorry its a ramble but hope that makes sense.

Joseph Henderson

@Mark-Maguire thanks for sharing this insight.

Apologies you’ve probably explained before, but what is your entry/exit strategy when trading the LTD selections?

Mark Maguire

a couple today:

LTD

If odds get ok:

Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos
Galatasaray vs Konyaspor

01.5 Split Stake

Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos

02.5 Split Stake

Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos (only worry is its on every filter for me today and stats good.. sods law applies)
Olympiakos vs AEK (cautious staking because of league positions)

Will also dabble with FHG Panathanaikos in other words if Panathanaikos is a nil nil I will be a tad miserable and cursing the trading gods