*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

Quite a lot to choose from today .. mine likely to include these:

LTD

Chesterfield vs Eastleigh
Olympiakos vs panetolikos
lask vs Wattens

01.5

Wrexham vs Morecambe
Freiburg vs Darmstadt
Atletico vs Mallorca

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Zilina vs Kosice (will also be FHG trade)
Luzern vs Winterhur
Swindon vs Mansfield
Bastia vs Auxerre

FHG

Ajax vs Vitesse
Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

Hello all,

In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.

Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.

I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.

Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.

It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:

The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.

When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.

The updated filter is as follows:

The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.

It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.

Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.

Dan MacKinnon

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson If you crack the FHG market, you should get a BTC knighthood.

The triple crown of BTC - S&F, SHG & FHG

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

This post is deleted!

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Akiva-Anderson If you crack the FHG market, you should get a BTC knighthood.

Akiva Anderson

Will go for a FHG in the Sydney derby here. Will also go o1.5 goals

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

19:45 - Larne v Glentoran. Larne to win at 2.15 (now around 2.02)

Both full-time teams. Larne are in great form. Glentoran, not so much. Glens have a fair amount of injuries and the supporters are unhappy with the manager and board. It's a toxic atmosphere here in East Belfast.

Larne are a great price.

2-1 Larne. Easy enough to be honest. 2.15 was too high a price for Larne.

Cracking night all round lads well done!

Akiva Anderson

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

19:45 - Larne v Glentoran. Larne to win at 2.15 (now around 2.02)

Both full-time teams. Larne are in great form. Glentoran, not so much. Glens have a fair amount of injuries and the supporters are unhappy with the manager and board. It's a toxic atmosphere here in East Belfast.

Larne are a great price.

2-1 Larne. Easy enough to be honest. 2.15 was too high a price for Larne.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Just this lay under 1.5 for me tomorrow:

Will take up to price of 7.4. If it's over that I'll more than likely lay under 2.5 (max price 3.5 - leave unmatched to go inplay if 3.5 not available).

Ends 1-2 so another win.

Only one tomorrow for me. Lay under 1.5:

Mark Maguire

LTD

Hamburg vs Braunschweig
Breda vs Den Bosch

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Sonderjyske vs Naestved
Breda vs Den Bosch goal came too late (luckily) loss covered by LTD trade

01.5

PSG vs Monaco will watch in play stats

Mark Maguire

A couple of interest tonight

LTD

Hamburg vs Braunschweig
Breda vs Den Bosch

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Sonderjyske vs Naestved
Breda vs Den Bosch

01.5

PSG vs Monaco will watch in play stats

Akiva Anderson

19:45 - Larne v Glentoran. Larne to win at 2.15 (now around 2.02)

Both full-time teams. Larne are in great form. Glentoran, not so much. Glens have a fair amount of injuries and the supporters are unhappy with the manager and board. It's a toxic atmosphere here in East Belfast.

Larne are a great price.

Akiva Anderson

Some proper football on today...Halle-f*****g-lujah!

A good few months of proper football. Profit building hopefully. I'm off to New York in February and I need new clothes!!

I had Over 1.5 Goals in the Macarthur v Melbourne Victory this morning. A 95th minute equaliser!!

Also took at FHG at 1.31

If you placed £10 bets on the Home Win @ HT market using pre-match odds from Bet365, for all A-League matches so far, you would be in profit by £70. The strike rate is 44%. When I read that stat, I thought I could adapt it for a FHG

Richard Latimer

Just this lay under 1.5 for me tomorrow:

Will take up to price of 7.4. If it's over that I'll more than likely lay under 2.5 (max price 3.5 - leave unmatched to go inplay if 3.5 not available).

Martin

@Nick-Allan no release date yet

Nick Allan

@Martin Has there been any news on the football backtesting software? any idea of a release date?

Martin

@james-everard that's really amazing to hear!

james everard

@Martin Exactly Martin it has taken me for years to realise that discipline is top of the list to become a successful trader. until you master this you will never be profitable. 4 months into a complete change of mindset and i feel like a completely new trader.

Martin

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse thanks very much for that! What a nice post to wake up to in the morning. Hope you are well.

Glad to hear we have helped with the discipline, definitely the hardest thing to master.

Well done on the strategies, look forward to seeing them!

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

Hello BTC. I've been away from posting for a bit trying to master the one thing that was eating into my profits i.e., not losing the rag after a few bad results.

I reckon I have worked that out now, and a lot of that comes from the BTC videos, the advice given on here by the BTC crew and the info shared by many posters on the forum.

So thank you, BTC - even the Liverpool supporters.

The main news is that I have +0.5 SHG filter that has been doing ok (strike rate fluctuates between 83-85%). I'll share the filters pretty soon on this one.

I also have a simple a +1.5G filter that I almost certainly robbed or adapted. It's at 79.7% after about a hundred selections and I am about 6.5% in profit. This is being worked on and I'll share it if its still ok after another hundred games or so.