*****New Football Thread*****
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SHG in the Dortmund v Newcastle match. 1-0 at HT
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@Alex-Rule been paper trading it for last 6 months here are the results:
Month Trades Placed Trades Won SR P&L £ per Pt
May-23 21 13 62% -£48.20 £10.00
Jun-23 6 4 66% -£4.30 £10.00
Jul-23 7 3 43% -£53.60 £10.00
Aug-23 5 2 40% -£31.80 £10.00
Sep-23 30 18 60% -£43.80 £10.00
Oct-23 32 23 72% -£11.90 £10.00 -
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I've one tonight 02.5 split stake Colchester vs Swindon
Potential LTD in Magallanes vs Colo Cool but will do more research on it before committing (away favourite so am more cautious)
How do you approach trading out on the O2.5, @Mark-Maguire? I'm thinking I should continue to drip in if there's a single FHG and the stats are right. If there's a FHG or a SHG and it's still 1-0 at 60 (turning the bet into an O1.5), I'm thinking wait an extra 10 before taking whatever is offered at 70. Does that sound OK?
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I've one tonight 02.5 split stake Colchester vs Swindon
Potential LTD in Magallanes vs Colo Colo but will do more research on it before committing (away favourite so am more cautious)
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Just the one for tonight. Lay over 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Scott-Higgins even on the weekend?
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@Martin Yes, on the set & forget email that you send each day. And the other members LTD filters don't seem to produce matches either?
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@Scott-Higgins is this @Ryan's Betgreen one you are referring to?
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SHG in the Frosinone v Empoli match. 0-0 at HT
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@Martin LTD set and forget, does it ever produce any games?
Any other preset LTD filters being used? Those on the presets don't ever seem to produce any selections unless I'm doing something wrong?
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay over 1.5 in Serbia and lay under 1.5 in Denmark up to price of 6.8
If between 7.0-9.6 lay under 2.5I've had a great result in Serbia pushing the bank up another £24.00. Going to leave Brondby today. It's low odds and a quick scan of my data shows I can easily rule this one out if it goes the other way. Not risking todays profit.
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@nick Thats true but then in that case it would mean it would fit your trading criteria better.
So for me for example it would only show trades in this filter that there is a high likelihood of it not being a draw.
Its a lay the draw filter, finding games where I can lay the draw.
Therefore it finds the games best to trade the lay the draw that day, I only focus on those games - I don't care about anything else as this has been tried and tested for me, I know its profitable and this filter in particular has been for over 16 season.
So then I check manually. One thing I stay away from it the random facts / commentator mentions / hunches.
I always stick with the filters and researched trades.
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@nick One of the things I always checked in the stats was this, I didn't have it in the filters what I would do is get the shortlisted games for that day then use the 'streaks' section with the Home / Away setting.
This then gave me a good look at what was happening. It was one of the manual checks I made.
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@Akiva-Anderson Yeh lol but it's great because it give Ten Haag a little longer to have everybody believe he's the man for the job, which I think he is I love his philosophy of replacing good players with terrible ones (the GK!).
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I was watching the Fulham Man Utd game saturday lunchtime(and before someone says it I know I/m a glutton for punishment) as the game progressed the BT commentator said that United are on a 24 game stretch without a draw.
This made me wonder about strategies.
I know many people on here play a LTD strategy and I cant recall seeing United coming up as a pick anywhere or even looking at my own, admittedly I am very new to this at the moment.
What I was thinking is what sort of strategy criteria would you need to put in to get teams like united come up as LTD picks, it obviously cant be as simple as putting in a 100% not to of had a draw over the last 10 games or so?
Mind you there is always the other side of the coin a bit like the roulette wheel where black has come in 20 times put your money on red because it is due.
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@Scott-Higgins it depends on the game and the odds and my strength of feeling/confidence in the trade - also the league, my stats are for example Portugal and Swedish matches can be slow starters so I'm relaxed about waiting twenty mins to get involved and if I miss out I miss out. I've sometimes looked at the Double Chance to back early on Home or Away - odds low and you can't green up, but an option for a sure thing. I won't risk a crazy amount of my bank on LTD but the strike rate gives me enough confidence to trade it as early as odds become semi reasonable
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@Mark-Maguire are you laying the draw at kick off? If so assuming some big odds?
The software is so vast with so many good things in it I can sometimes feel overwhelmed. Thanks for the info Ryan.