*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

Very pleased with tonight - extracting max return from the two winning trades and limiting to minimal loss the losing one, in addition rejected a LTD trade based on pre match information and it ended 2-2 (Mansfield vs Tranmere) nice when that happens. Nothing spectacular but feels like my decision making is in the right place.

01.5

Notts County vs Crawley

02.5 Split Stake ..

Notts County vs Crawley
Barnsley vs Wycombe
Watford vs Norwich

Mark Maguire

Update .. take green after third goal at Watford.

Won't enter any more in Barnsley until after half time now ..

Mark Maguire

Lots happening quickly tonight but after early goals Notts and Watford games greened to free bet then added second drip stake then after second goals greened to free bet as well as small part of the profit on 03.5 markets which is sat there and will green up on third goal.

Slow pace in Barnsley game so currently limiting any further involvement unless stats liven up

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@Mark-Maguire thankyou... thats opened my eyes.. well done

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire Yes, I see, but go in at KO on the O2.5. That makes sense; thanks for clarifying.

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H I think in my ramble last night I said I was more flexible - really its as case of going in on the 01.5 after a few mins when the price has raised a tick or tow and then if in play stats are strong adding more. Out after 70 mins regardless.

If the goal is early enough I will green to a free bet.

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Hello, has anyone here successfully created a match Xg model based on teams recent results, say the last 10 matches or the current season? Or does anyone know where this information might be available for most fixtures? Thanks, Nick

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Trevor-H similar but slightly different staking. My approach is to treat them as different trades and judge them on the merit of the individual stats for that filter .. maybe unconventional on my part but I will trade more than one market in a game if the stats stack up ..

Oh, sorry, I thought they were both 25% in, out and back in +25% at 15, another 25% if 3 SoT at 35 and the rest at 45 if +1 SoT. Even so, if you're coming out after the first goal in either market, do you find there's much difference between the two in the offered green when the first goal is scored vis-a-vis RoI? Perhaps it depends on the goal time (although, of course, the earlier the goal, the less you have staked).

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H similar but slightly different staking. My approach is to treat them as different trades and judge them on the merit of the individual stats for that filter .. maybe unconventional on my part but I will trade more than one market in a game if the stats stack up ..

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Among my picks tonight:

01.5

Notts County vs Crawley

02.5 Split Stake .. out after 60 mins if no goal, green up if goal

Notts County vs Crawley
Barnsley vs Wycombe
Watford vs Norwich

Thanks for sharing @Mark-Maguire. Just trying to grasp the logistics - isn't your O1.5 split-staking plan the same as your O2.5? And if you're greening up at the first goal anyway, is there much difference in return/loss between backing O1.5 and O2.5?

Mark Maguire

Among my picks tonight:

01.5

Notts County vs Crawley

02.5 Split Stake .. out after 60 mins if no goal, green up if goal

Notts County vs Crawley
Barnsley vs Wycombe
Watford vs Norwich

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Loads of football on tonight!

Indeed and it is mid-week, so none of the Saturday 3pm rush.

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@Wayne-Thomas Nice one, thanks for this.

Akiva Anderson

Loads of football on tonight!

Wayne Thomas

@Nick-Segura said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Hello, has anyone recorded the Goal Supremacy ratings for the fixtures below?
25/11/2023 12:30 Manchester City England
25/11/2023 13:00 Rayo Vallecano Spain

Thanks

I have them:

Man City: 28
Rayo: -24

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse thanks for sharing!

Thanks Martin. A decent set and forget would be nice. Fingers crossed.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

One for tomorrow. Lay under 1.5:

Looks like no market on Betfair

Martin

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse thanks for sharing!

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse for clarity my staking is very similar to and indeed derived from the real experts like Ryan with his 01.5 split stake strategy.

The difference is after studying my data of the last couple of years - I've recorded 1st and 2nd goal times for all my strategies and the analysis of these led me to decide the entry times for my split stake.

So because of that the O2.5 split stake staking works as follows:

1/4 stake entered at kick off (because circa 30% of first goals are in the first 15 mins) - more recently I decided to then take out this stake and re enter at 15 mins if no goal to limit loss of this first split stake.

The second 1/4 is automatic at 15 mins as above (if a goal is scored in first 15 mins I green to free bet)

The third 1/4 is entered at 35 mins - again because of when goals are scored - this is only entered if there have been a minimum of three Shots on Target.

The fourth 1/4 goes in at 45 mins if there has been at least another SOT and attacking action.

I take the loss at 60 mins if no goal.

Strike rate on my filters for 02.5 is between 85 and 88% (I have four 02.5 filters simply because I tried different versions and ideas from day one and they all achieved strike rates which made it worthwhile continuing - often trades duplicate which may influence how much I stake - but sods law the trades that appear on all four sometimes let me down.

My main focus is diligence in play to spot the 15% losing trades and minimise losses and to maximise returns where stats suggest more goals.

My over 1.5 strategy is also split stake but I tend to be more flexible in play according to stats and exit at 70 mins.. the Strike Rate is 90% so my current focus is how I can eliminate some of the ten per cent and turn this into an automated trade.

My LTD I am moving towards set and forget - stand alone the strike rate is 85% but if I apply additional stats (over 1.5 % probability and ELO strengths) I can get it to 90% and this will be my aim and then I can concentrate on 02.5 inn play while S AND F for 01.5 and LTD .. bit more work to do but nearly there on that..

Hope this explains a bit more .. I know for example Ryan on one of his wont enter until 30 mins plus, but when I looked at this - with big help from him too .. it was clear I'd eliminate too many winning trades because my filters search for early goals.. 75% on average are in the first half .. which suggests I should look to analyse that and come up with a FHG strategy .. that will be the next job.

Sorry for the ramble but as I say hope it helps

That is a fairly logical ramble as far as rambles go, and I have a PhD in rambling.

I can only imagine that your record keeping is fairly meticulous and takes a bit of time. But it seems to be paying off, even more so if you can achieve S&F status.

Richard Latimer

One for tomorrow. Lay under 1.5: