*****New Football Thread*****
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One for tomorrow. Lay under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse for clarity my staking is very similar to and indeed derived from the real experts like Ryan with his 01.5 split stake strategy.
The difference is after studying my data of the last couple of years - I've recorded 1st and 2nd goal times for all my strategies and the analysis of these led me to decide the entry times for my split stake.
So because of that the O2.5 split stake staking works as follows:
1/4 stake entered at kick off (because circa 30% of first goals are in the first 15 mins) - more recently I decided to then take out this stake and re enter at 15 mins if no goal to limit loss of this first split stake.
The second 1/4 is automatic at 15 mins as above (if a goal is scored in first 15 mins I green to free bet)
The third 1/4 is entered at 35 mins - again because of when goals are scored - this is only entered if there have been a minimum of three Shots on Target.
The fourth 1/4 goes in at 45 mins if there has been at least another SOT and attacking action.
I take the loss at 60 mins if no goal.
Strike rate on my filters for 02.5 is between 85 and 88% (I have four 02.5 filters simply because I tried different versions and ideas from day one and they all achieved strike rates which made it worthwhile continuing - often trades duplicate which may influence how much I stake - but sods law the trades that appear on all four sometimes let me down.
My main focus is diligence in play to spot the 15% losing trades and minimise losses and to maximise returns where stats suggest more goals.
My over 1.5 strategy is also split stake but I tend to be more flexible in play according to stats and exit at 70 mins.. the Strike Rate is 90% so my current focus is how I can eliminate some of the ten per cent and turn this into an automated trade.
My LTD I am moving towards set and forget - stand alone the strike rate is 85% but if I apply additional stats (over 1.5 % probability and ELO strengths) I can get it to 90% and this will be my aim and then I can concentrate on 02.5 inn play while S AND F for 01.5 and LTD .. bit more work to do but nearly there on that..
Hope this explains a bit more .. I know for example Ryan on one of his wont enter until 30 mins plus, but when I looked at this - with big help from him too .. it was clear I'd eliminate too many winning trades because my filters search for early goals.. 75% on average are in the first half .. which suggests I should look to analyse that and come up with a FHG strategy .. that will be the next job.
Sorry for the ramble but as I say hope it helps
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@Mark-Maguire I suppose the theory is that by restricting your maximum loss, you compensate for the times you only got paid on half a stake?
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LTD
Den Hag vs Utrecht
01.5
Emmen vs Jong PSV
This will also be an 02.5 trade
After a question from someone elsewhere should clarify I split stake and exit at 60 if no goal (o2.5) or 70 mins (o1.5) green up with goal .. so 47 mins for the Emmen game meant green for me
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I find myself constantly revisiting the rules and trying to balance rules against the inevitable random nature of some results - so there are Stats Busters where all the stats in game say goal but its nil nil.. but overtime start to accept those as exactly that .. I was annoyed about the German game though because they are next to each other in the league and that often suggests a tighter game
I don't know if you look at such things but for me what took that German game immediately out of consideration was the fact that they were in different leagues last year.
It was on my list of potentials before that.
This is not something I have considered so far. But I may have to revisit that.
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@Richard-Latimer interesting one that - not so far been a consideration but a good point to consider
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Just a couple tonight:
LTD
Den Hag vs Utrecht
01.5
Emmen vs Jong PSV
This will also be an 02.5 trade and one which if goals come early I will look to maximise return by going to next goals market (03.5).. so sods law say it will be nil nil
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I find myself constantly revisiting the rules and trying to balance rules against the inevitable random nature of some results - so there are Stats Busters where all the stats in game say goal but its nil nil.. but overtime start to accept those as exactly that .. I was annoyed about the German game though because they are next to each other in the league and that often suggests a tighter game
I don't know if you look at such things but for me what took that German game immediately out of consideration was the fact that they were in different leagues last year.
It was on my list of potentials before that.
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mark-Maguire @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I got caught out by that game too.
Sometimes you just have to hold your hands up and remind yourself that you can't win them all. Also, would you spend this much time analysing the trades which shouldn't have won but did?
Then again, maybe I'm too laid back!
Being laid back is an important trading skill, in my opinion.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I find myself constantly revisiting the rules and trying to balance rules against the inevitable random nature of some results - so there are Stats Busters where all the stats in game say goal but its nil nil.. but overtime start to accept those as exactly that .. I was annoyed about the German game though because they are next to each other in the league and that often suggests a tighter game
We just have to accept that losses occur, that these losses are not going to be evenly distributed, and that these losses are largely irrelevant if the underlying trading idea is valid.
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Hello, has anyone recorded the Goal Supremacy ratings for the fixtures below?
25/11/2023 12:30 Manchester City England
25/11/2023 13:00 Rayo Vallecano SpainThanks
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@Dan-MacKinnon agreed Dan.. I do find it useful to try and arrive at the mindset of understanding where the result is random as against where there is a pattern to be found .. I'm constantly using Countif functions to examine results and then vary the parameters to see if my latest daft interpretation of results is a figment of my imagination or something that will improve selection
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@Mark-Maguire @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I got caught out by that game too.
Sometimes you just have to hold your hands up and remind yourself that you can't win them all. Also, would you spend this much time analysing the trades which shouldn't have won but did?
Then again, maybe I'm too laid back!
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@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse I find myself constantly revisiting the rules and trying to balance rules against the inevitable random nature of some results - so there are Stats Busters where all the stats in game say goal but its nil nil.. but overtime start to accept those as exactly that .. I was annoyed about the German game though because they are next to each other in the league and that often suggests a tighter game
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@Mark-Maguire I have an in play filter which I am testing. It applies where there is a game with either zero or one goal at half time but where there is an expectation of an 85% chance of +0.5G at FT or an 80% chance of a +1.5G at FT. Heidenheim V Bochum was on the list, so it got me too. The bit that has me kicking myself is that I did not implement my own rules about using the in play stats as a guideline for deciding whether to take the trade or not.
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In a previous post, I also mentioned I was working on a +1.5G filter.
The basic idea is one I either stole from Martin or stole from discussions around one of the set and forgets- it is definitely not mine.
But what I wanted to do was to take a very simple idea and see what can be gained from tinkering with it.
The original basic idea is as follows:
Over the last 111 games, it has a strike rate of 80% and average odds of 1.34.
I decided to increase the FT +2.5 criterion to greater than or equal to 50%. This reduced the number of selections to exactly 100 but increased the strike rate to 84%, with a slight drop in the average odds to 1.338.
I'll come back in a few hundred selections to see where we stand.
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@Scott-Higgins said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse lovely results, how many points profit?
I only did about half of them but I ended about 2 points up on this filter.
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Decent day despite the nil nil in Germany which I blame myself for because league positions being tight is a warning sign I ignored.
LTD
Gorica vs Rudes
Anderlecht vs RWDM01.5
Alkmaar vs Volendam
Sarpsborg vs Molde02.5 Split Stake
Anderlecht vs RWDM
Heidenheim vs Bochum
Alkmaar vs Volendam -
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse lovely results, how many points profit?
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@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hello all,
In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.
Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.
I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.
Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.
It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:
The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.
When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.
The updated filter is as follows:
The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.
It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.
Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.
An update on how this filter did over the weekend- 26 SHGS out of 30.
Germany 3. Liga 25/11/2023 13:00 Ingolstadt RW Essen 0
Germany Bundesliga 25/11/2023 14:30 Dortmund B. Monchengladbach 1
Germany Bundesliga 25/11/2023 14:30 SV Werder Bremen Bayer Leverkusen 1
England Premier League 25/11/2023 15:00 Nottingham Brighton 1
Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 25/11/2023 15:00 Coleraine C. Rangers 1
England National League 25/11/2023 15:00 Gateshead Southend 1
Scotland Premiership 25/11/2023 15:00 Dundee FC Hibernian 1
England League Two 25/11/2023 15:00 Grimsby Town Sutton 0
England League Two 25/11/2023 15:00 Wrexham Morecambe 1
England Premier League 25/11/2023 15:00 Burnley West Ham 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 25/11/2023 15:30 Excelsior Feyenoord 1
Turkey Super Lig 25/11/2023 16:00 Galatasaray Alanyaspor 1
Czech Republic FORTUNA:LIGA 25/11/2023 17:00 Slavia Prague Ceske Budejovice 1
Switzerland Super League 25/11/2023 17:00 Luzern Winterthur 1
Belgium Jupiler Pro League 25/11/2023 17:15 Charleroi Westerlo 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 25/11/2023 17:45 Twente PSV 1
Denmark Superliga 25/11/2023 18:00 Viborg FC Copenhagen 1
France Ligue 2 25/11/2023 18:00 Bastia Auxerre 0
Poland Division 1 25/11/2023 18:15 Lublin R. Rzeszow 1
Germany 2. Bundesliga 25/11/2023 19:30 Dusseldorf Schalke 1
Ecuador Liga Pro 25/11/2023 23:00 Dep. Cuenca EL Nacional 1
South Korea K League 2 26/11/2023 6:00 Sangju Sangmu Seoul E. 0
Spain Laliga 26/11/2023 13:00 Villarreal Osasuna 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 26/11/2023 13:30 AZ Alkmaar Volendam 1
Switzerland Super League 26/11/2023 15:30 Servette Grasshoppers 1
Switzerland Super League 26/11/2023 15:30 Basel St. Gallen 1
Austria Bundesliga 26/11/2023 16:00 Rapid Vienna BW Linz 1
Norway Eliteserien 26/11/2023 16:00 Lillestrom Odd 1
Norway Eliteserien 26/11/2023 16:00 Sarpsborg 08 Molde 1
Poland Division 2 26/11/2023 16:30 LKS Lodz II Wisla Pulawy 1
