*****New Football Thread*****

Martin

@Arran-Shackell didn't get a great response as a video but seems to work well as a podcast glad you are enjoying it!

Arran Shackell

Overreactions is a good podcast to listen too @Martin

Especially for someone like myself who never had football as their ‘first’ sport.

mick mcmahon

@Akiva-Anderson good info. I am terrible at keeping spreadsheets up to date so wrote some code to parse a days results from sofascore. And store that in a database. Going to write some more code so I can click on a match and record a bet...

Akiva Anderson

A few stats from the Premier League matches so far:

General Stats:

Games Played: 59
Home Wins: 20 (34%)
Draws: 18 (31%)
Away Wins: 21 (36%)
Total Goals: 166 (2.81)

Over / Under:

Over 0.5 Goals: 57 (97%)
Over 1.5 Goals: 50 (85%)
Over 2.5 Goals: 32 (54%)

Goals by Half:

Over 0.5 1H Goals: 47 (80%)
Over 1.5 1H Goals: 21 (36%)

Over 0.5 2H Goals: 51 (86%)
Over 1.5 2H Goals: 21 (36%)

Martin

@Arran-Shackell probably more due to Spurs Jekyll and Hyde nature!

Arran Shackell

@Martin

Hills had Utd priced just under EVS just before kick off!

Akiva Anderson

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

backed Ten Haag to be next prem manager to leave at HT he was odds of 4, traded out at FT for nice profit odds of 1.8

I said in the podcast he should be sacked last week after watching them play out a 0-0 at Palace and not try to score at the end was pathetic. I'm amazed Utd fans aren't more up in arms

Give him a 10 year contract please!

Martin

@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

backed Ten Haag to be next prem manager to leave at HT he was odds of 4, traded out at FT for nice profit odds of 1.8

I said in the podcast he should be sacked last week after watching them play out a 0-0 at Palace and not try to score at the end was pathetic. I'm amazed Utd fans aren't more up in arms

Arran Shackell

This thread has been very quiet recently. Has everyone had a good weekend?

Greg Mitchell

backed Ten Haag to be next prem manager to leave at HT he was odds of 4, traded out at FT for nice profit odds of 1.8

Martin

@Richard-Latimer I mean they are usually very good on NI games

Richard Latimer

@Martin Random s**t that makes no sense is very like them.

I'm not spreading my money around but I wanted to lay Coleraine.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer not like them is it!

Richard Latimer

So only 1 Northern Ireland game on betfair today. Bit annoying

Simon Bates

@Shannon-Townsend cashed out at half time, too early
![alt text](image url )

Shannon Townsend

Anyone else's eyes light up when Liverpool went 1 nil down tonight... odds went to 2.2 for Liverpool win and was green and on a free bet within 4 mins...took the profit at 2-1... if Carlsberg did in play trades...

Matt Wood

Thanks for all the replies. Loads of stuff to think about there.

@Richard-Latimer Totally agree with you about starting with the stats before leagues. I only had a look at it the other way around to shut the little voice in my head up. Whilst it did produce some interesting results, it doesn't make sense.

@Alex-Rendell Averaging around 200 selections per month at the moment. The initial set was very broad and was just an idea I had that I did not really expect much from. Funny how things go when you look at the numbers though. Rolling seasons seems like a good idea, I'll steal that too.

@Stuart-Capstick Evening Stuart, Ive always had in mind that if I can get a solid LTD out of this then SHG trades would be possible if the games are drawing at HT. I am mindful, like you say, that this is only 1 seasons worth of data and would like to have another to back it up and see if the trends follow year to year. Interestingly I had a look at the losing selections and it seems like a BTD could be possible from this data too.

Stuart Capstick

@Matt-Wood

Hi Matt,

Well done on finding something with LTD. It really isn't dead; the draw is the hardest to predict, so prices are often wrong, which is lovely for those who trade the draw.

Maybe:

Each league needs its own strategy. The Irish league is very different to Brazil Serie A. It wouldn't be so outlandish if the draw was more likely under certain circumstances in one league as opposed to others.
Have a look at other outcomes- FHG, SHG, O2.5 etc
So many times for me a " failed" LTD turned out to be fruitful for SHG or laying the home team.
Be mindful that you have only one season's data. Sometimes leagues have blips.
BUT- FHG and SHG tend to resist those seasonal variations.

Alex Rendell

@Matt-Wood if you want to send me your spreadsheet or results etc to see if I can see things from another angle then feel free!

Alex Rendell

@Matt-Wood 1500 is decent! I'd say once you get in excess of 5000 then you can really start to drill into the individual leagues and see what works and what doesn't. Until then, perhaps a more broad approach would be best? I'd definitely look to filter odds ranges at the top and bottom ends though as a starting point, as opposed to leaving out say odds of 3.4 because they're showing a loss, whereas 3.35 and 3.45 both show profit, so they don't get removed. It just doesn't make sense.

How many selections are you averaging per month? If it's a fair amount then surely just aim for maximum profit over ROI? Tough call that one though.

I think 3-5 seasons' worth of data is good, anything older just doesn't feel relevant anymore. I only look at the past 3 seasons data personally, and keep that rolling so it's never more than 3 seasons old, if that makes sense.