*****New Football Thread*****
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@Akiva-Anderson It's hard, isn't it? I mean, is a single season even statistically significant? (The number of games played in it are, of course, but there will be five or six different teams in it next season.) TBH, I'm not entirely comfortable with tweaking a strategy by filtering leagues - it feels a bit too much like curve fitting. To my mind, the current season's stats ought to be a much better guide; it's just a question of picking the right ones!
Well done on the Seongnam game.
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@Trevor-H said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Trevor-H And will you make any adjustments for the poorly performing leagues this season, or just treat it as swings and roundabouts?
Good question. I'm not sure. Firstly, I don't need those leagues. I could paper trade them or do a deep dive into the stats and see if there is something I'm missing. Sometimes we dismiss leagues when there is no need too. It could be individual teams under performing rather than the league itself.
When we have a back testing facility in football, then I'll have loads of stuff to look at. At the minute I'm happy making a living on Over 1.5 goals and SHG. I'm certainly in no rush
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@Trevor-H said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson Out of interest, were there any leagues/markets in which you took a loss?
Championship & League Two weren't great. La Liga was quite bad last year.
Most profitable leagues were:
English Premier League
Israeli Premier League
Italy Serie A
France Ligue 1
Australia A-League
Germany Bundesliga
Germany Bundesliga II
Czech Fortuna League -
SHG in the Seongnam vs Gyeongnam match. 1-0 at HT
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@Akiva-Anderson Out of interest, were there any leagues/markets in which you took a loss?
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Is it me or do some of these summer leagues not have many midweek games? I only have one trade on my set and forgets today. I seem to remember more matches being played midweek in previous years, is that just me remembering wrong?
Yes seems very quiet, only 1 game for me today, 2 qualifiers but just don't fancy one after research 3rd vs 4th and 6.8 for the away team seems a bit risque to me!
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Czech League starts back this weekend. I enjoyed that league last season. Some good matches there.
Profit for 2022/2023 Games Based on £10 Bets:
Home Win @ HT (38.41% Hit Rate) = £157.90
BTTS (Yes) (57.97% Hit Rate) = £91.50
Over 1.5 Goals (84.06% Hit Rate) = £98.20
Over 2.5 Goals (60.51% Hit Rate) = £198.20
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Craig-vaulks I love this price on City to be fair, it's going on my watch list that because they are 100% going to be there in the biz end, my thinking now is can I watch them to Xmas and they still be in the run?
Last season they had 45 points after 20 games, if they have that now and there's Liverpool, Arsenal, maybe another team near them then I will be very excited with 2.2ish.
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@Martin
it feels slow right ?not a lot of games going on. But i decided to enjoy the summer and get some sun on my skin.
the season is already starting soon! -
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SHG in the Ayr United v Stenhousemuir match. 1-0 at HT
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SHG in the Dundee United v Partick Thistle match. 1-1 at HT
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@Karl-Pick I think their odds may reflect their likely second round opponents. Likely to play either the US or Holland, both would be very difficult games.
Even though the odds are much lower, I am toying with a trade on the US. Odds suggest there are a 26/27% chance but I’d say they should be more like a 35% chance myself, but my knowledge of the women’s game is basic.
Think if they get to 4.0 or above at any point I may dive in!
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@Adam-Cubbage said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin Nothing on yet..
Was looking at Sweden, ranked 3rd in the world and odds of 27-28
Not the toughest group if you go on the world rankings, don't think they will win but could come in after the group stages.Yep, I dont understand Womens football or watch it, but I saw Sweden at 28, so had a small bet, 3rd best in World surely they should WIN their group then Green up, 28 seems ridiculous to me?
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@Craig-vaulks said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Trevor-H sorry I meant I was backing the over 2.5 goals market prefer trying it that way as it gives more options during the match. I hedged out shortly after they scored the 2nd goal for a decent return.
Good work lads!
