*****New Football Thread*****
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@Akiva-Anderson for what it’s worth Atlanta is on my LTD list to look at
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Anyone any luck with backing Home Wins?
I like backing teams from around 1.32 - 1.60. and Average Home / Away Goals
There are two matches tonight:
19:45 - Atalanta (1.31) v Salternitana. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 1.71 v 0.57
20:00 - Girona (1.58) v Alaves. Home Goal Average v Away Goal Average: 2.25 v 0.50
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!
Do you perform?
No, it's my daughter. She loves musical theatre and I transport her to rehearsals and to here performances.
She's hopefully making a cameo appearance on the BBC after Christmas
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Took a beating this weekend, quite interesting though, my winning trades did not bring me enough to bring any profit or even cover my losses. Lost about 5 points over the weekend. It's part of it and I actually welcome the opportunity to look at myself and my trading. I have followed the plans set out at the beginning of each day and executed everything perfectly, but prices did not move much after goals were scored, even early goals when I took fairly big prices. Trades that would usually bring me 50/60% of my stake back only brought me about 30%. I also struggled to get in and out of my positions quickly enough, even on big fixtures. I have found that the liquidity was quite low over the weekend and betfair was particularly slow too. A few stakes were only partially match which is quite frustrating. I might look at using a software going forward. Can't afford to spend 5 minutes trying to enter/exit a position. Anyways, this was my debrief. We win some and lose some!
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@Mark-Maguire WOW
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Another good day LTD wise hopefully if anyone followed these you took green at 2-0 for Ajax..
LTD
My wait for odds on a couple of these
Fiorentina vs Verona
Trnava vs Michalovce
Genk vs Kortrijkjust taken green at 2-0
Ajax vs Zwolle (finished 2-2 so 
if you stayed in)01.5 Split Stake out after 70 mins if no goal, green up (if early green to free bet)
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Leverkusen vs Frankfurt02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal, green up
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Servette vs Lugano
St Gilloise vs Mechelen -
Really quiet weekend for me so after only 1 trade I exit with profit.
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Wary after two good days (there's always the leveller) but here goes anyway for today:
LTD
My wait for odds on a couple of these
Fiorentina vs Verona
Trnava vs Michalovce
Genk vs Kortrijk
Ajax vs Zwolle01.5 Split Stake out after 70 mins if no goal, green up (if early green to free bet)
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Leverkusen vs Frankfurt02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal, green up
Heracles vs Feyenoord
Arsenal vs Brighton
Servette vs Lugano
St Gilloise vs Mechelen - cautious staking after the home teams Thursday Night exploits -
@Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hello all,
In a post a few days ago, I wrote about a SHG filter I have been working on, and I said at the time that I would post some details.
Here is the SHG filter that I have been working on- so far we are at a strike rate of about 83% over 200+ games.
I still regard this as a work in progress but I do get the feeling that it is close to where it needs to be.
Please note that is is not a set and forget filter- the aim is to get in based on the in play stats and the odds.
It is best if I present the filters without getting into my thought process, as this will allow people to take their own view:
The above has had a strike rate of about 83% over the last 200 games.
When filtering the data, I found a way to increase the strike rate.
The updated filter is as follows:
The change in the first criteria increases the strike rate to 86%, but over a reduced sample of about 100 games.
It should be noted that during the testing period, we have had an international break, so going forward it will obviously be producing far more selections.
Coming back from the international break, this weekend's trading may be a bit tricky. But that aside, the next month or two will be important for this filter.
Just to update you on the SHG filter I have been testing.
We were 200 games in at the time of the first post and we are now 100 games later, so after 300 games it has a strike rate of 85%.
When I tighten up the filters - move the first filter to greater than or equal to 130- that goes to 87% but with 148 selections.
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A good day with another full house on these and some decent trades elsewhere having just greened up to free bet on the Dutch game. Enjoy days like this because sure as anything they aren't all like this
LTD
wrexham vs Colchester
Leipzig vs Hoffenheim01.5 Split
Augsburg vs Dortmund
Wrexham vs Colchester
Plymouth vs Rotherham
Hartlepool vs Chesterfield
Heerenveen vs Volendam02.5 split
Swansea vs Middlesboro
Southampton vs Blackburn
Baden vs Thun
Glentoran vs Newry -
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!
Do you perform?
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Many I'm semi sure about, only one where I have enough data to be confident enough.
Lay under 1.5 Bochum
Ends 3-0
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Ok I have a few today .. as usual lots to sort through:
LTD
wrexham vs Colchester
Leipzig vs Hoffenheim01.5 Split stake out after 70 mins if no goal
Augsburg vs Dortmund
Wrexham vs Colchester
Plymouth vs Rotherham
Hartlepool vs Chesterfield
Heerenveen vs Volendam02.5 split stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Swansea vs Middlesboro
Southampton vs Blackburn
Baden vs Thun
Glentoran vs Newry -
Going for a SHG in the Ipswich v Norwich match. 1-1 at HT. An entertaining match so far
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Many I'm semi sure about, only one where I have enough data to be confident enough.
Lay under 1.5 Bochum
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Back now after a hiatus for all things musical theatre!
Anyway, there’s an overpriced team in the Irish league today.
15:00 - Glenavon v Linfield. Linfield to win at 1.51.
Part time team v full time team.
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@Mark-Maguire I'm impressed you know Taggy (and the other contacts you've mentioned in recent posts). Yeah Taggy has been around for 20 years now and he's done an amazing job employing Dolan, Inglethorp, Tisdale, Taylor as managers who have done well. All on a limited budget but with sensible decisions, like you say we're very well run. Caldwell started well and last year was no mean feat keeping us in league 1. It seems the injuries etc has got to him and he's lost the plot somewhat. I can't see us recovering from this but you never know. With his impressive 20 year record, if Taggy thinks Caldwell is still the right man to turn it round, then who am I to argue.
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@Stephen-Hancox You're a good club, well run - pretty much the only trust run model that has worked for any period of time.. Julian Tagg at your place is someone who I've known and respected for a long time.. you will be more patient than most with managers but it does feel something has to give .. albeit with your trading hat on - your gaffer staying in place means goals (cue 0-0 draw)
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If anyone would like a bit of lower league insight (if league 1 counts?) for a match on Saturday, I'm an Exeter City season ticket holder and things are really bad right now. We've had a horrendous injury list which affected the team badly initially, so bad that form hasn't recovered.
- 11 games in last 3 months have resulted in 2 draws and 9 defeats, 2 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- We never look like scoring, reason being we only have 1 recognised striker (James Scott) who has been awful, so the manager uses a centre back as a lone striker.
- Our captain (centre back) was sent off last week so is suspended tomorrow.
- Manager is hell bent on passing out from the keeper, admirable but allows the opposition to put pressure on constantly. At league 1 level you rarely get defenders who can pass well under pressure.
- Fans lost faith in the manager ages ago, atmosphere is becoming toxic at games.
- Manager appears to be losing the dressing room, we've had 5-0, 7-0 and 9-0 defeats this season already.
- Finally we're a trust run club, the elected board feel sorry for the manager and have publicly backed him saying he can have cash to buy strikers in January. So this could rumble on for a few months yet.
We play Stevenage away Saturday who are 3rd and flying, only conceded 5 in last 8. I can't see us scoring so have personally bet on Stevenage to win to nil. I still think Stevenage to win at 1.58 is also good value on BF.
Sod''s law, now I've written this a miracle will happen tomorrow and we'll get a result.
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Full house tonight, pleased and unusually stress free
LTD
Willem vs Helmond
01.5 out after 70 mins /split stake
Willem vs Helmond
02.5 Split out after 60 if no goal
Nijmegen vs Sittard
Cambuur vs Jong AZ
