*****New Football Thread*****

Matt Hyam

@Martin Thanks for the heads up, seems OK my end so hopefully any issue been resolved.

Martin

Managed to get my set and forget bets sorted this morning but it's been a ballache, anyone trading inplay today be careful as Betfair seems to be very slow, at least my end anyway!

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Stoke v Brighton match. 1-1 at HT

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Cheltenham v Portsmouth match. 0-0 at HT

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:

0-2

Adam

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Arran-Shackell

@Adam is on the case!

It's back as of around 18:15.

This issue has been a persistant thorn in my side this last couple of weeks (and everyone else's, I realise!) due to it not being picked up on our monitoring tools.

Good news is, I have sorted it

Martin

@Arran-Shackell

@Adam is on the case!

Arran Shackell

@Martin @Ryan

Joseph Henderson

@Arran-Shackell Same here - getting 502 Gateway error message

Arran Shackell

Is it my connection or is the stats software down?

Richard Latimer

Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:

Akiva Anderson

Home Wins:

Fulham v Rotherham (FA CUP) - Fulham win at 1.22. Not great odds, but Rotherham are fighting relegation and they concede a lot

Sporting v Estoril. Tight at the top. Expect Sporting to win here. Odds are 1.26

Aaron Rouse

@Mark-Maguire Thanks for your reply.

Your explanation makes perfect sense and completely understand now.

Much appreciated!

Aaron

Mark Maguire

@Aaron-Rouse welcome ! Simple answer is that there is no difference other than your attitude towards risk and reward ..

If you back under 3.5 goals (for an example the Palace vs Everton game tonight) the odds are 1.33 so for a £10 stake the return would be £3.30 on a straight bet.

If you lay over 3.5 the odds are 4.1 so a ten pounds stake would make the liability £31.00 (to win £10) or to make the same return £3.30 the risk would £10.23 -

Its really down to personal preference which way you go. Hope this makes sense.

Aaron Rouse

Hi All,
I am new to trading, and was wondering...what is the difference between laying over 3.5 goals and backing under 3.5 goals.
Thanks

Mark Maguire

Nice little day to day

LTD

Partick vs Queens Park
Rangers vs Kilmarnock

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Morton vs Ayr
Arbroath vs Dundee Utd

Mark Maguire

@Tony-Hastie I am looking for match action in previous games which suggests an early goal in the game .. it started with filters looking for what I think leads to goals rather than goals themselves and then when I studied the data I saw that first goal times were roughly as follows: first 15 mins 35%. next fifteen mins 23% , next fifteen mins 17% (so 75% FHG) then 9% up to 60 mins .. then it drops to 11% for the last half hour and 5% no goal which led to me work out an early entry point and staking - I sometimes trade FHG on these too if my stats say the % FHG is above 94% on the probabilities I calculate .

Tony Hastie

@Mark-Maguire The Partick game has come up in my FHG filter which got me thinking....Are you basically looking for a FHG in your 1.5 and 2.5 strategies? Then trading out? Or is that over simplifying things a bit?

Mark Maguire

Just a couple today

LTD

Partick vs Queens Park
Rangers vs Kilmarnock (if odds come in)

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Morton vs Ayr
Arbroath vs Dundee Utd

Mark Maguire

Nice start to the year with full house on these and other trades

LTD

Bolton vs Burton
Leicester vs Huddersfield:

01.5 Split Stake Out after 70 if no goal

Chesterfield vs Solihull
Liverpool vs Newcastle

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal

Tranmere vs Notts County
Crawley vs Swindon