*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

A couple of trades tonight:

LTD

St Gallen vs Yverdon
Celtic vs Hibs (if odds get decent)

01.5 split stake out after 70 mins if no goal

Sheff Utd vs Liverpool
Young Boys vs Lausanne Ouchy

02.5 Split stake green up or out after 60 mins if no goal

Sheff Utd vs Liverpool
Aston Vill vs Man City

Mr. Emmet Moorehouse

The following are SHG candidates tonight:

Ryan

@Mark-Maguire ahahah true! They do love to miss that T out!

Mark Maguire

@Ryan I think you'll find its pronounced Lu-un ...as in their famous chant "Com on Lu-un, Com on Lu-un" its a silent T

Ryan

I'll be gutted if Luton go down, they are actually a really good team!

Richard Latimer

For Wed though:

Lay under 1.5

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5 Jong PSV for tomorrow

0-2 now, nothing tomorrow

Mark Maguire

@Tony-Hastie good question - depending on the strength of feeling I have about the trade really .. I calculate the per centage chance of 01.5 and of the result based on ELO ratings.

I won't trade less than 1.2 to 1.3 based on the fact that for example on my o1.5 trades I have a SR of 90% then anything above 1.19 (the real odds of 90% probability when including the bookmakers round) is value - I will take this into account along with the probability of the 01.5 and team news, home or away favourite, league position etc. If I feel really strongly that there's an early goal I will lay under 1.5 for more liability in confidence I'll get a return .. hope that all makes sense?

Mark Maguire

Yesterday was a day for arguing that the LTD should be either not S&F or should be green up after 89 mins.. I did but if anyone left it in there sorry about the late goals.. marked as a win and loss below.. otherwise from my point of view a really pleasing day across the board..

LTD

Fiorentina vs Salernitana
Brondby vs Hvidovre
Molde vs Ham Kam but 90th minute equaliser
Man City vs Tottenham but 90th minute equaliser

01.5 split out after 70 mins if no goal

Braga vs Estoril
Molde vs Ham Kam:
Bodo vs Sarpsborg

02.5 split out after 60 mins if no goal

Nijmegen vs Ajax
Viking vs Rosenborg
Bodo vs Sarpsborg
Leverkusen vs Dortmund

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 Jong PSV for tomorrow

Richard Latimer

4/4 for the day and I'm green for the year. Just have to stay that way.

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 Cobresal

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 Augsburg

Tony Hastie

@Mark-Maguire What is the lowest odds youll take on your split stake strategies? Had the chance to look through a few of your selections today and one of them was a 1.07 or something. You wouldnt get in from the start at that would you?

Richard Latimer

Running very late, very busy

Lay under 1.5:

Rangers
Slask (Poland)

Mark Maguire

Some of todays :

LTD

Fiorentina vs Salernitana
Brondby vs Hvidovre
Molde vs Ham Kam
Man City vs Tottenham

01.5 split out after 70 mins if no goal

Braga vs Estoril
Molde vs Ham Kam
Bodo vs Sarpsborg

02.5 split out after 60 mins if no goal

Nijmegen vs Ajax
Viking vs Rosenborg
Bodo vs Sarpsborg
Leverkusen vs Dortmund (caution because big game - maybe tighter so staking will reflect this and monitor in play)

Martin

@Nick-Segura annoying but long term if you learn from it it will be of value to you!

? Offline

Rookie mistake costs me today, I had no business entering for a SHG on the Antwerp match, stats did not look good and I had already taken some good green from a late FHG. The league performs well when the scoreline is 1-0 and 2 disallowed did not help but I could have avoided the red quite easily - teams that do not perform well in second half. Was hoping for a late SHG. Let's move on! Frustrating when the day ends like this.

Mark Maguire

A good day just let down by Bromley

LTD

Leipzig vs Heidenheim
Bayern vs Union match off
Antwerp vs Leuven (taken green at 90 mins)
Adna Demirspor vs Samsunspor

01.5 Split Stake

Bromley vs Rochdale
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Bayern vs Union match off

02.5 Split Stake (out after 60 mins if no goal)

Leeds vs Boro
Ipswich vs Coventry
Magdeburg vs Kaiserslautern
Antwerp vs Leuven

Richard Latimer

First Saturday in ages that I've got absolutely nothing. Nothing I'm prepared to risk anyway. Dec has to be a profit and has to push me into an overall calendar year green.