*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Andy-Donnelly not been impressed with Chelsea yet but will see what happens! Interesting that one of those 4 will make the semis
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Draw seems to have opened up for Chelsea at the world club cup. Whether they are good enough to take advantage of it remains to be seen tho.
Odds should come in if they beat Benfica and then Palmerias/Botafogo so could be a trade there. Also possible that draw opens up further if Inter or Man City don’t win their last games.
Got in myself just after Bayern lost yesterday at around 22. Already down to 15.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hard to know what to make of this Club World Cup so far! Some European teams not doing that well are they, considering the apparent level of opposition. Seem to be taking it fairly seriously.
It won’t get good until the knockout stages.
Glad to see the non-European teams doing well, think it's good for the competition.
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson has Republic of Ireland always been so low scoring? had so many 1-0 or 0-0 results recently, I always thought of it as a decent goals league.
Yeah, not a lot of SHG’s either. It’s not my favourite league to watch. I much prefer Northern Ireland.
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hard to know what to make of this Club World Cup so far! Some European teams not doing that well are they, considering the apparent level of opposition. Seem to be taking it fairly seriously.
It won’t get good until the knockout stages.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Alex-Rendell great analysis, thanks for that!
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@Martin "Over the last 5 seasons, the number of goals per game has fluctuated. For example, in 2020, the average was 2.41 goals per game, while in 2021, it was 2.48 goals per game. In 2022, the average goals per game was 2.36. The 2023 season saw a slight increase to 2.53 goals per game, and 2024 saw a decrease to 2.28 goals per game." - quick AI search gave me this, so it may not be fully accurate but it isn't far off;
So the top tier in Ireland is generally over 0.2 goals per game below the worldwide average, which ties in with the fact that it doesn't appear very often on my own personal trading strategies (which look for goals).
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@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin Think City’s price could drop a bit. Don’t think they’ll win it but have a relatively straight forward draw so could make semis without breaking sweat. Agree think PSG odds are still likely to come down from the currrnt price point.
Yeah always good to have a good look at the draws, price will shorten if they make semi surely
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@Nikki-HALSALL yesterday was frustrating as should have traded out long before the two late goals.
Thinking along similar lines for Chelsea game. Under 3.5 again but will be low stakes as not sure just how good these MLS teams are
** Scrap that heard that the stadium has a roof closed for tonight’s game which will negate the temp factor somewhat. Expect goals now **
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@Martin Think City’s price could drop a bit. Don’t think they’ll win it but have a relatively straight forward draw so could make semis without breaking sweat. Agree think PSG odds are still likely to come down from the currrnt price point.
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@Shannon-Townsend I thought that about Real at start of season but have become less convinced by them as the season has gone on, same with Man City. Will be interesting to see if they were saving something for this tourney.
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@Martin caught a bit of PSG last night, they just look like they love playing football together... i am hoping similar thing will happen to Real Madrid price with as the group stages progress...
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
PSG at around 6.0 looks a good price. Have a tough group but head and shoulders the best team in this if they take it seriously
Yes I agree with this, especially with Barca not in it (how are they not in it but Juve and Salzburg are?)
Price crashed in to 4.3 already to close to where it should have been, still may even be too big
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@Andy-Donnelly difficult to see where the appetite is for this Tourney so might be a good play with a view to getting out ????
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Thoughts on club World Cup today. Think unders on PSG v Atletico look good to me. Market expecting goals but both teams likely to be knackered and looks like they will be playing at midday local time in 30 plus degrees sunshine. Factor in it’s the first game of the tournament which can mean teams start cagey and likely atletico will put a lot of men behind the ball.
1.45 on under 3.5 looks good with all the above concerned
