*****New Football Thread*****
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I'm seeing a few people throw shade at why Liverpool have been put second faves.
You can learn a lot about trading by reading this post.
In any market you have to think 'Who's going to stop the fave?'
Think about that for a second...
The Fave is Man City, who is going to stop them?
Arsenal fans out there will jump and say 'we nearly did' true but you didn't! It wasn't even down to the last game of the season. So how do you work it out then?
When you look at all the potential teams and you are pricing up a market one of the biggest questions you have to ask is the one at the start of this post.
- Have any of the others in the market beaten the fave to the outcome? (In this case the premier league title)
- How many times?
- How often have they run them close?
- Does the fave struggle against the second fave? (Motivation, mindset)
- Would they sell each other a player?
When you start to think of it that way you can clearly see why Liverpool are second favs (Which I am not saying is right or wrong!).
How can you use this?
Well trading is taking a stance, looking at all the variables and making a judgement. The beauty is we can go against the market. There will be many that think Liverpool shouldn't be second faves, which means they'll then lay them.
I don't trade Liverpool as it's my team but I can 100% see why they are second faves, because the last 5 years they've pushed City to the limit, they've won the league. Now, factor in their decline this last season yes... but how did they finish the season? Strong, I have 100% confidence City would never sell a player to Liverpool as well the way they have to Arsenal.
The market makers are smart, they don't want to give Liverpool huge value. When there are so many unknowns, now if Liverpool don't push City this season there is no chance they will be second favs the season after.
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@Akiva-Anderson I reckon we will, will pick a few up now.
Windows not really even open yet
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@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson All Liverpools scouts are there lol
No point having scouts if we don't buy players!
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@Akiva-Anderson All Liverpools scouts are there lol
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The UEFA Under 21 tournament starts today. Hopefully a few trading opportunities for a SHG.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Just the one more goal needed in the Scotland v Georgia match if it goes ahead. Don't let me down, Jocks!
There we go! Only took three hours!!
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Just the one more goal needed in the Scotland v Georgia match if it goes ahead. Don't let me down, Jocks!
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SHG in the Faroe Islands v Albania. 1-1 at HT
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SHG in the Bosnia v Luxembourg match. 0–1 at HT
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Over 1.5 goals in the Scotland v Georgia match
Looked a good call with a nice early goal....do betfair void the bets if the game doesnt restart?
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Over 1.5 goals in the Scotland v Georgia match
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@Akiva-Anderson
Too quick to get matched at 1.22! Went for another at 1.32 instead
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
SHG in the Denmark U21’s
v Wales U21’s 
match. 1-0 at HTThat was quick! 1-1
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SHG in the Denmark U21’s
v Wales U21’s match. 1-0 at HT -
@Akiva-Anderson I'm driving up from Dublin then back down again the same day as got a College Football game on in the evening, end of Aug
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@Akiva-Anderson I missed the o1.5 but got in on o2.5 instead. Thanks for the shout
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Also went for a SHG in the Northern Ireland v Kazakhstan match. 0-0 at HT
A perfect example of how watching the match helps. Odds for a SHG was 1.45 at HT. Quality was / is really poor from oth sides, but there was lots of space, evn though the chances weren't really there.
I prefer space rather than tempo if I'm honest
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@Trevor-H said in *****New Football Thread*****:
You do love a late goal, don't you?
3/3 - well done!If only I was good at predicting goal times!
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@Fraser-cord said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
SHG in the Israel
v Andorra 
match. 1-0 at HTGosh, not what you expected though. Surely you will turn it around
I probably should've went in again.
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