*****New Football Thread*****
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Afternoon all, thought I would put this to the experts for opinions..
What would be the best way/market to use to obtain the value of an evens trade scalping the first 10-12 mins of a football match, or getting as close to that value?
Which market would drift out the most or quickest?
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@Mark-Maguire I think your coat will get itself with that one
I'd be interested to see what you turn up if you do take a look. I don't have enough data yet to for a conclusive verdict so I might paper trade as if I was weighting the stakes vs equal splits and see which comes out on top for the res of the winter season.
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@Matt-Wood Really interesting that mate and will look at it - you've given me some home work there
A little bit like dutching the various entry points - like it .. Ryan has me obsessing on dutching on the horses at present. .. so double dutch ..
I'll get my coat.Seriously though appreciate the suggestion
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@Mark-Maguire Morning Mark, nice to see your stuff doing so well. I have an O1.5 system similar to yours which is running similar numbers and I am in the process of figuring out the sweet spots for entry/exit.
When you worked yours out did you ever cinsider weighting the stakes, for example taking your stake and splitting it into 4 as you are but not 25% for each, maybe something like 40%, 30%, 20% 10% (hopefully that adds up to 100
). This sort of thing would catch the early goals, as they are such a high % in your data (mine too), with a larger portion of your stake.Hope that makes sense.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
All ok with these tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford Citygreat work!
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All ok with these tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford City -
A couple tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford City -
@Mark-Maguire Thanks for the explanation & great figures on the strike rates - Sound like you have a good thing going on with that filter
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@Ben-Dobie good question - the over 1.5 strategy is currently running with a 93% strike rate (over the last 120 trades) 91% over the last 500. as I drip stake I decide based on how early the goal is whether to stay in or green up - on this filter 24% of 1st goals are in the first 10 mins and 78% in the first half - for that 24% I am likely to stay in and maximise the profit with the rest I'm benefitting from the drip stakes and odds moving in my favour so will happily take the green up to 70 mins when I'm out if no goal.
Equally the set and forget on this is running at 86% so if I'm busy elsewhere I will set a trade at 1.3 and leave it to win or lose.
Sorry for the ramble but hope it makes sense.
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Off we go again:
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@Mark-Maguire Hi Mark I know it’s not mentioned but interested t know if there are minimum odds you’ll take when greening up on the O 1.5 split stake ?
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All good..
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
02.5 split stake out after 60 if no goal
Den Haag vs Dordrecht
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
Chelsea vs Newcastle -
A couple tonight:
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
91% SR greening up or wait for 1.3 if set and forget
02.5 split stake out after 60 if no goal
Den Haag vs Dordrecht
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
Chelsea vs NewcastleGreen up on goal (if in first 15-20 mins green to free bet and then take profit after 2nd goal)
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@mick-mcmahon Amazing, that's great feedback!
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And todays picks
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Yesterdays results:
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@Ben-Dobie That's correct...
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@Greg-Mitchell oh so you have all the historical XG etc since July ?
