*****New Football Thread*****
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
All ok with these tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford Citygreat work!
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All ok with these tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford City -
A couple tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford City -
@Mark-Maguire Thanks for the explanation & great figures on the strike rates - Sound like you have a good thing going on with that filter
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@Ben-Dobie good question - the over 1.5 strategy is currently running with a 93% strike rate (over the last 120 trades) 91% over the last 500. as I drip stake I decide based on how early the goal is whether to stay in or green up - on this filter 24% of 1st goals are in the first 10 mins and 78% in the first half - for that 24% I am likely to stay in and maximise the profit with the rest I'm benefitting from the drip stakes and odds moving in my favour so will happily take the green up to 70 mins when I'm out if no goal.
Equally the set and forget on this is running at 86% so if I'm busy elsewhere I will set a trade at 1.3 and leave it to win or lose.
Sorry for the ramble but hope it makes sense.
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Off we go again:
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@Mark-Maguire Hi Mark I know it’s not mentioned but interested t know if there are minimum odds you’ll take when greening up on the O 1.5 split stake ?
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All good..
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
02.5 split stake out after 60 if no goal
Den Haag vs Dordrecht
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
Chelsea vs Newcastle -
A couple tonight:
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
91% SR greening up or wait for 1.3 if set and forget
02.5 split stake out after 60 if no goal
Den Haag vs Dordrecht
Jong PSV vs Gronigen
Chelsea vs NewcastleGreen up on goal (if in first 15-20 mins green to free bet and then take profit after 2nd goal)
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@mick-mcmahon Amazing, that's great feedback!
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And todays picks
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Yesterdays results:
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@Ben-Dobie That's correct...
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@Greg-Mitchell oh so you have all the historical XG etc since July ?
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@Ben-Dobie I have spreadsheet that has all my filter selections, football ratings and match scores HT and FT since July.
Have it set up so I can change parameters e.g. XG, Goal Supremacy etc..
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@Greg-Mitchell How are you back testing mate ?
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@nick said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@andrew-page Have you looked at using the filter to lay over 1.5 half time goals, 18 of those picks would of come in?
if i have the time i mess around with halftime correct scores i had so much on yesterday with racing and football to be fair those results was for the set forget challenge doing, its basic a challenge starting with 100 1% bank per selection had hoped to double it within a season but getting odd horror day
But ye often try laying u2.5 FHG AT 1.05 just weekends theres a lot on had 40 selections on horses yesterday im a manual trader so cant really fully concentrate on both
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
An interesting Stat came to me this morning whilst I was updating the scores from yesterday, so I had a look back at my records.
I have the results recorded for 13,265 matches going back to July, of those 9,165 had at least 1 goal in the First Half
of those 9,165
7,281 had a SHG. Thats a strike rate of 80%. If you could back all of those at 1.31 or above, you'd be in the money..
I'm experimenting with something similar myself. The problem is, of course, that you often won't get to 1.31 until well into the second half, so you'll miss some earlier winners while all the losers will get matched. I think the FHG could well be a useful SHG indicator, but it needs to be combined with something else, such as SHGs or an overs stat (+ev) or unders stat (-ve).
