*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Martin Liverpool were wildly open in midfield it was terrible which then with everybody else bombing forward is wild. I know you like stats....
They faced 10 shots with a total xG of 1.7.... last season they only gave away more in 5 games, and 4 of those were after they'd already won the title.
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@Martin What I find mental is Betfair is giving 4.0 for West Ham to go down, that's a 25% chance of going down....
I think it's a lot higher than that to be honest as we know they don't have to actually go down.... just stay in the bottom 4 and have a fight and that'll come in.
Also adding into this their next 2 games are Chelsea and Nottingham Forrest....
They could be played 3 conceded 12 0 points scored 1-3.... Wouldn't look great.
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@Paul-Sheridan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Bournemouth seem to be selling everyone this season. That's Ouattara gone now to Brentford.
mad how much money Bournemouth must have now!
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@Andy-Donnelly I think thats a great shout!!! I think they are going to have a solid season as well, they have added a few good pieces. They were also the ones I had last season as the ones to close the gap. They started strong too.
I am with you on United, although all of me wants them to finish bottom 10 again ahahah
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@Ryan Yeh understand a lot of the teams outside of the top 4 have had difficult summers but until Utd improve defence, midfield. Think it’s a big jump for them to be 5th. Have them more around 7th-9th.
Looking at fixtures, tempted to back Chelsea to win league with view to removing liability prior to their away game at Liverpool around week 7. They seem to have much the easier start to the other top 3.
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@Andy-Donnelly I am in 100% agreement with you there, They are not the 5th best team but look at what the other teams have to cope with...
Newcastle have champs league this season so that will be brutal - If I was Eddie Howe I would 100% focus on getting back in the champs league over actually competing in it this season, the Swiss system is a lot of games. Plus they are about to potentially lose Isak.
United have nothing other than the league to focus on lol
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@Ryan Still can’t quite believe that the markets have Man Utd as the 5th best team going into the new season.
How they are rated better than Villa at this time in particular is beyond me.
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One thing I always think about and I think everybody else should as well....
Premier League teams buy players from the teams around them so that team doesn't have them.
Newcastle did it for years, Wood from Burnley, Elanga from Notts F.
United bought Mbeumo and Cunha.
Not saying that the players are bad but it weakens the teams around them which makes it easier for them!
It has a knock on as well, Joao Pedro gone from Brighton, united looking at Baleba.... Brighton and Brentford weaker, Bournemouth weaker....
It makes it easier. Prem is so tough as a league.
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@Andy-Donnelly For me first time in a while the promoted teams actually look better, like Leeds have just bought units lol I like that!
Brentford worry me slightly, really well run club but I think they said they would sell one of Wissa and Mbuemo and now both look to be leaving.
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@Paul-Sheridan Bloody wild that!!!
They've literally sold their whole back line as well, I do like their keeper. But I actually think Kepa will be a big loss for them!
Semenyo and Kerkez seemed to have aright understanding as well.
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Bournemouth seem to be selling everyone this season. That's Ouattara gone now to Brentford.
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@Andy-Donnelly not great for the league for it to keep happening but it does, yes it's a worry for Brentford but they seem a well run club, like Brighton and Bournemouth seem to be able to keep it up year on year.
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@Martin Yeh decent shout. I still think it’s likely that the promoted sides all go down. Hope I’m not right tho.
Brentford look in trouble but they are a very well run club so feel like they will make some transfers as just about get it right. Wolves possible other candidate but still think they have a stronger squad than the promoted sides even without Cunha
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@Andy-Donnelly Leeds at 2.56 to get relegated, no certainty of course but I'd have it close to evens.
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@Andy-Donnelly Hasn't Donna agreed to go to City this morning?
I 100% think the market is overreacting to Man united business both Cunha and Mbuemo over performed their XG last season and at some point they revert to the mean, of course maybe they will level up.... Mbuemo I think is ready to step up he's great I think, but he's at united.
They will 100% benefit from no Europe but they have a tough start and they still have issues with mentality there.
I have Villa, Spurs above them. Newcastle are a really tricky one.... back to back champs league is huge and they need to unlock PSR but they are so incompetent at signing anybody it's almost a joke....
