*****New Football Thread*****

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Petrolul 52 vs Voluntari match. 0-0 at HT

Ryan

@Craig-vaulks Yep I agree, if they keep hold of him they will do well.

That Jobe signing was decent as well I think. The Championship is a good one because it all seems to be about momentum as well, one team gets on a roll and off you go.

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@Richard-Latimer I don't disagree with what you are saying.
I don't have any plans to trade that way but will paper trade what the results would be.
Just looking into different staking strategies see how or if they can work.

Richard Latimer

@Craig-vaulks said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer odds of 2 look like it will be a lot more tricky to find the best way to go about it.
With backing the draw a bad run would be around 10 games in a row. So that would be around the max then leave it at that stake if needed for 1 or 2 more.
As I say it's just an idea, will look into for a few months with my selections and see how it would of played out.
And as you say the losing streaks can be very costly, from what I have seen/researched, it looks like it is more profitable backing the draw with this approach but I would need a lot of results to see it for myself. Before even considering it.

It's loss recovery and it's very dangerous. The way I've heard it put to me before is if you're on a losing streak and you've increased the stake just to get back your losses and a tiny bit more......you're individual bet is massive and odds are skinny as hell.

You wouldn't do it on a single bet so it's crazy to do it because you've lost loads before.

Also, in the end your bank runs dry and you can't afford the next bet.

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@Ryan I have backed them for top 2 finish at 11s and layed leicester for top 2 only small stakes. If they keep a hold of ross stewart and he stays fit with a few more signings I can see them competing around the top. No doubt I have cursed my team now and they will be in a relegation battle .
Looks like a very open championship to me, middlesbrough could be decent this season carrick did an impressive job.

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@Richard-Latimer odds of 2 look like it will be a lot more tricky to find the best way to go about it.
With backing the draw a bad run would be around 10 games in a row. So that would be around the max then leave it at that stake if needed for 1 or 2 more.
As I say it's just an idea, will look into for a few months with my selections and see how it would of played out.
And as you say the losing streaks can be very costly, from what I have seen/researched, it looks like it is more profitable backing the draw with this approach but I would need a lot of results to see it for myself. Before even considering it.

Ryan

Sunderland is a decent one for promotion

Ryan

@Richard-Latimer He has, they've also played Connor Bradley in his inverted role.

I think that was an always the plan though to test him there, I don't think he would have played there though if they hadn't sold Fabinho.

Ryan

@Craig-vaulks 100%, it looks as though the players that they have got in can press and look solid. JK has repeatedly said as well more players are to come in, which makes it even harder to read what is happening.

I'd 100% have said they would have played Alexis Fab and maybe Hendo first game with Trent at RB. But not now.

I think we shall actually see a lot of variety from Liverpool this season. Wouldn't surprise me actually if they played Trent inverted and when he doesn't play they'll play at proper 4-4-2.

Richard Latimer

@Craig-vaulks said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Has anyone tested an increased staking plan on certain strategies?
I have seen with backing the draw, increasing your stake by around 50% after each time you have a loss as quite a profitable way to go about it. You would obviously need to be prepared for bigger down swings and know roughly your biggest potential losing streaks. From what I have seen odds of around 3 to 4 are used for this type of strategy on back the draw.
I am thinking of looking into this with backing the FH draws but not sure what the best staking plan with odds of around 2 would be.
Just looking for thoughts and ideas around this.

Increasing stake after you have a loss is a bad idea. How many times do you increase it? Just a variation of loss recovery and martingale from what I can see.

Odds of 2 and you could easily hit a losing streak of 10 or more!

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Has anyone tested an increased staking plan on certain strategies?
I have seen with backing the draw, increasing your stake by around 50% after each time you have a loss as quite a profitable way to go about it. You would obviously need to be prepared for bigger down swings and know roughly your biggest potential losing streaks. From what I have seen odds of around 3 to 4 are used for this type of strategy on back the draw.
I am thinking of looking into this with backing the FH draws but not sure what the best staking plan with odds of around 2 would be.
Just looking for thoughts and ideas around this.

Richard Latimer

@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Craig-vaulks I think he might, I've watched a lot of Liverpool games and also I know I am biased but I've also tried to think and look logically at them.

Trent's a player that needs to be loved, I also don't think he is as bad at defending as the media make out.

Liverpools midfield was always industrious, those midfielders had a lot of miles on their legs (which is why I don't oppose the sale of Hendo and Fab) you could see that the plan was to try and get Trent move involved, just with the original 4-3-3 shape it didn't work. Liverpool got punished and Trent was always caught out and then blamed a lot.

I would rather he play the hybrid role with the right players in front of him and the rest of the defence will be more solid because of it.

I don't think it would be a waste of Trent's talent moving him back as long as he has a lot of chance to dictate the play which he will 100%.

The question that a lot of people who watch football who say he should be moved haven't looked at what it allows the team to do with the ball?

It effectively gives them an extra player in midfield, if you move him to midfield you don't get that advantage, you also have to have him doing a 'midfielders' job, he has to cover men, win balls in the air, sniff out and stop attacks, counters etc...

I think the Hybrid role gives the team the best balance and allows him to dictate play.

Hasn't he played all of pre-season in mid though?

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@Ryan I think last season the midfield did not have the same intensity from what I saw and also maybe the ability to cover trent who is obviously quite an attacking full back.
I know henderson used to have the engine to help cover along with a few other midfielders such as milner but without those type of players I could see why he could of been exposed more often, alongside the formation.
Will be interesting to see their approach this year with new players they have added so far.

Ryan

@Paul-Sheridan I think they are a cracking price! Also they have United and Brighton to start!

Ryan

@Craig-vaulks I think he might, I've watched a lot of Liverpool games and also I know I am biased but I've also tried to think and look logically at them.

Trent's a player that needs to be loved, I also don't think he is as bad at defending as the media make out.

Liverpools midfield was always industrious, those midfielders had a lot of miles on their legs (which is why I don't oppose the sale of Hendo and Fab) you could see that the plan was to try and get Trent move involved, just with the original 4-3-3 shape it didn't work. Liverpool got punished and Trent was always caught out and then blamed a lot.

I would rather he play the hybrid role with the right players in front of him and the rest of the defence will be more solid because of it.

I don't think it would be a waste of Trent's talent moving him back as long as he has a lot of chance to dictate the play which he will 100%.

The question that a lot of people who watch football who say he should be moved haven't looked at what it allows the team to do with the ball?

It effectively gives them an extra player in midfield, if you move him to midfield you don't get that advantage, you also have to have him doing a 'midfielders' job, he has to cover men, win balls in the air, sniff out and stop attacks, counters etc...

I think the Hybrid role gives the team the best balance and allows him to dictate play.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Over 1.5:

Love a boring 0-0 where absolutely nothing of note appeared to happen

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Viktoria Plzeň vs Hradec Králové match. 0-0 at HT

Richard Latimer

Lay Over 1.5:

Akiva Anderson

Two games for the Over 1.5 Goals:

12:30 - Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge
14:00 - Hammarby vs Norrköping

Will hopefully do a few SHG's later too

Martin

Got this for a late goal today if stats look good: