*****New Football Thread*****
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@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Was this the one where you back a goal if they have a history of all matches having at least 1 goal by FT - If so, how are you getting on with this?
@Arran-Shackell Yes, although you need to refine it a bit more than just 100% O0.5. I've found that FHGs and O1.5 values can be useful filters. I'm still experimenting, but it's running at 85% S/R from 57 matched selections, 5.5% RoI on a fixed stake in its current iteration, so it's not setting the world alight, but it's at least not losing. If it maintains that level, it could be useful as one strat among several.
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@Mark-Maguire absolutely smashing it mate
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Just let down by one in Denmark:
01.5 Split Stake out after 70 if no goal
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Odense vs Copenhagen
Roma vs Sassuolo
Cercle Brugge vs RWDM02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Dortmund vs Frankfurt
Verona vs Milan
Salford vs Morecambe
Nordsjælland vs Randers
goal too late -
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Joseph-Henderson no problem - because I'm drip staking I want average odds , but because if the large number of early goals I need to be in early(current average across my filters of 32% in first 15 mins) so my basic rule is start dripping stakes from kick off - albeit if odds are prohibitive I will wait - so for example if 01.5 starts of at 1.08 I wont get involved until its drifted but as I'm often trading more than one market I may be in on an 02.5 trade on that game.
On 01.5 if I am doing set and forget I wait for 1.3 . On over 2.5 I look for value from 1.8 but will often have my first drip stake in below that.
Hope that doesn't sound too sketchy
@Mark-Maguire It's interesting how people approach value. I've made up these rules for myself for SHGs on no scientific basis whatsoever - just gut feeling. If the price is 1.25 of better, I back; 1.2 to 1.24 I put in an order at 1.25 because it will be matched in under 10 mins; less than 1.2 I don't bother because by the time it's matched there will be too little time left to make it value. But I've no idea if it would be better to back at any price and never miss a goal, or always ask for 1.3, 1.4 or whatever and win more from those that do come in. This is where some cough, cough backtesting software would come in handy.
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@Joseph-Henderson no problem - because I'm drip staking I want average odds , but because if the large number of early goals I need to be in early(current average across my filters of 32% in first 15 mins) so my basic rule is start dripping stakes from kick off - albeit if odds are prohibitive I will wait - so for example if 01.5 starts of at 1.08 I wont get involved until its drifted but as I'm often trading more than one market I may be in on an 02.5 trade on that game.
On 01.5 if I am doing set and forget I wait for 1.3 . On over 2.5 I look for value from 1.8 but will often have my first drip stake in below that.
Hope that doesn't sound too sketchy
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@Mark-Maguire Apologies Mark if you’ve already covered this in an earlier post but do you have a min entry odds for your first entry?
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@Greg-Mitchell good morning Greg, my name is Gregorios lol.... but im Greg for short... can i see your filters? they sound interesting. please and thank you
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A few for today:
01.5 Split Stake out after 70 if no goal
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Odense vs Copenhagen
Roma vs Sassuolo
Cercle Brugge vs RWDM02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Dortmund vs Frankfurt
Verona vs Milan
Salford vs Morecambe
Nordsjælland vs Randers -
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
All green with these today
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Darmstadt vs Bayern - if odds get reasonable
Braga vs Gil Vicente
Frosinone vs Lazio02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Port Vale vs Oxford
Fulham vs Tottenham
FerlpiSal vs Parma
Luton vs Forestoutstanding!
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All green with these today
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Darmstadt vs Bayern - if odds get reasonable
Braga vs Gil Vicente
Frosinone vs Lazio02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Port Vale vs Oxford
Fulham vs Tottenham
FerlpiSal vs Parma
Luton vs Forest -
A few to consider today amongst them:
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Darmstadt vs Bayern - if odds get reasonable
Braga vs Gil Vicente
Frosinone vs Lazio02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Port Vale vs Oxford
Fulham vs Tottenham
FerlpiSal vs Parma
Luton vs Forest -
@Greg-Mitchell @Adam replied to your message saying the rest of the fixtures were populated, so when it updates it caculates the most recent games (so for example on a Friday the midweek results will be uploaded)
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Dunno what was going on with the Ratings, but @Adam seems to have fixed it, which has caused an update in my selections to the following. Yellows were not on my previous list and reds were but should not of been, so ignore those.
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@Trevor-H said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
And just a random question, but has anybody else's Flash Score stopped showing the HT score?
@Greg-Mitchell It's a policy decision. If you think it's a bad one (as I do), please write to [email protected] and let them know why. If they get enough negative feedback, they might change their minds. The only site I've managed to find that gives HT scores (in a graphic) without having to click on game detais is Total Corner, so I'll be going there for now.
Bizarre decision that!
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@Ben-Dobie no prob .. good luck with it
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@Mark-Maguire You're a star Mark, I thought there was a way to do it I just couldn't get my head around what it was. Cheers for taking the time to come back I appreciate it
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@Ben-Dobie I did that and essentially its an either/or - As well as three other criteria I look for home team ELO to be 125 more than away team, Away team to be 135 more than home (thats on one specific filter but is an example) then I set the filter to match 4 of 5 criteria (otherwise it would be looking to match both the above if that makes sense?)
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@Mark-Maguire thanks very much mate that's really helpful... there is something missing from my parameters and I'm leaning towards it being something to do with this ... I'm trying to put in a parameter on my filter whereby there is an ELO difference between the teams (haven't decided on figure yet) in favor of either team do you know if this is possible ? Will tag @Adam as it's a software Q
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@Ben-Dobie In short yes I do look at this.. the following is some analysis I did a few weeks ago (needs updating) but gives you an idea .. based on 1500 plus games.. the per centages are relative strike rates
