*****New Football Thread*****
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@Andy-Donnelly Hi Andy, I tend to look at 2nd half 0-0% for both teams at home and away. I will also look at SOT and dangerous attacks sometimes to see if the game is lively or not.
It's still early days and I'm testing a few different versions of a SHG filter to see what works - I will report back when I know more. I think it's a case of everyone just sharing insights and progress and we can create a decent filter
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@Greg-Mitchell ok, no problem.
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Hi, it's difficult for me to share my filters because they are not one-dimensional. I use a combination of multiple filters and calculations on the Football Ratings.
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@Mark-Maguire nice one…. Keep them coming.
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Not this time unfortunately!
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I find the turkish names the hardest to match up.
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So today betfair offered odds on a match which wasn't even happening as it turns out.
Sometimes names on Israeli clubs change and appear differently so when I confirmed the home team I thought good to go.
But no. Now cancelled/voided when I thought it had won.
Hapoel Nazareth supposed to be playing against Hapoel Akko but they had odds against Hapoel Afula.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Alex-Rule Yeh I saw this one too, looking along similar lines.
How did you get on with these over the weekend just gone? I had been doing pretty well but was a bloodbath this weekend. Interested to see if I should be looking at more than just percentage of FT 0-0s. What other factors do you consider?
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@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Was this the one where you back a goal if they have a history of all matches having at least 1 goal by FT - If so, how are you getting on with this?
@Arran-Shackell Yes, although you need to refine it a bit more than just 100% O0.5. I've found that FHGs and O1.5 values can be useful filters. I'm still experimenting, but it's running at 85% S/R from 57 matched selections, 5.5% RoI on a fixed stake in its current iteration, so it's not setting the world alight, but it's at least not losing. If it maintains that level, it could be useful as one strat among several.
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@Mark-Maguire absolutely smashing it mate
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Just let down by one in Denmark:
01.5 Split Stake out after 70 if no goal
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Odense vs Copenhagen
Roma vs Sassuolo
Cercle Brugge vs RWDM02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Dortmund vs Frankfurt
Verona vs Milan
Salford vs Morecambe
Nordsjælland vs Randers
goal too late -
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Joseph-Henderson no problem - because I'm drip staking I want average odds , but because if the large number of early goals I need to be in early(current average across my filters of 32% in first 15 mins) so my basic rule is start dripping stakes from kick off - albeit if odds are prohibitive I will wait - so for example if 01.5 starts of at 1.08 I wont get involved until its drifted but as I'm often trading more than one market I may be in on an 02.5 trade on that game.
On 01.5 if I am doing set and forget I wait for 1.3 . On over 2.5 I look for value from 1.8 but will often have my first drip stake in below that.
Hope that doesn't sound too sketchy
@Mark-Maguire It's interesting how people approach value. I've made up these rules for myself for SHGs on no scientific basis whatsoever - just gut feeling. If the price is 1.25 of better, I back; 1.2 to 1.24 I put in an order at 1.25 because it will be matched in under 10 mins; less than 1.2 I don't bother because by the time it's matched there will be too little time left to make it value. But I've no idea if it would be better to back at any price and never miss a goal, or always ask for 1.3, 1.4 or whatever and win more from those that do come in. This is where some cough, cough backtesting software would come in handy.
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@Joseph-Henderson no problem - because I'm drip staking I want average odds , but because if the large number of early goals I need to be in early(current average across my filters of 32% in first 15 mins) so my basic rule is start dripping stakes from kick off - albeit if odds are prohibitive I will wait - so for example if 01.5 starts of at 1.08 I wont get involved until its drifted but as I'm often trading more than one market I may be in on an 02.5 trade on that game.
On 01.5 if I am doing set and forget I wait for 1.3 . On over 2.5 I look for value from 1.8 but will often have my first drip stake in below that.
Hope that doesn't sound too sketchy
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@Mark-Maguire Apologies Mark if you’ve already covered this in an earlier post but do you have a min entry odds for your first entry?
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@Greg-Mitchell good morning Greg, my name is Gregorios lol.... but im Greg for short... can i see your filters? they sound interesting. please and thank you
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A few for today:
01.5 Split Stake out after 70 if no goal
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
Odense vs Copenhagen
Roma vs Sassuolo
Cercle Brugge vs RWDM02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Dortmund vs Frankfurt
Verona vs Milan
Salford vs Morecambe
Nordsjælland vs Randers -
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
All green with these today
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Darmstadt vs Bayern - if odds get reasonable
Braga vs Gil Vicente
Frosinone vs Lazio02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Port Vale vs Oxford
Fulham vs Tottenham
FerlpiSal vs Parma
Luton vs Forestoutstanding!
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All green with these today
01.5 split stake out after 70 if no goal
Darmstadt vs Bayern - if odds get reasonable
Braga vs Gil Vicente
Frosinone vs Lazio02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal
Port Vale vs Oxford
Fulham vs Tottenham
FerlpiSal vs Parma
Luton vs Forest
