*****New Football Thread*****
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@Matt-Wood
Currently in testing I'm looking at SR of 83% and starting odds of around 1.3I plan to track the goal times and might look to record which time segment of the match they fall into 0-10 / 10-20 etc.
My thought process is that if you equally drip into the market every 5 mins and there are lot's of early goals it's going to kill your bank build when you get a few that go against you and it will wipe out your wins from the early goals.
If I was to put say 50% of my stake on at the start or at 5mins then 25% at 15mins and 25% at 25 mins that might help cover early goals but will lead to a smaller return if that happen consistently.
My other approach is to create a strategy along side this one and add an extra rule that says 0-15mins 50% (or maybe even higher) chance of no goals - then you would expect the majority of your selections to to be 0-0 at 15 mins and you could start dripping in money for higher returns.
Not sure if I am overthinking it or not.
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Morning both, I have two tests running that are not yet ready for money trades but am deliberating on the same thing (without the bot aspect).
One thing I have looked at that my tests have kinda thrown up is the prospect of using the O1.5FH market too. So something like 1 point in 4 drips in the O1.5fh market, 10, 15, 20, and 25 for example, followed by a cover lay in the O0.5 market @ 1.5 for 1/2 a point.
Max loss of 1.5 pts most break even but if a couple of games a month had 2 FHG late on you are going to be quids in!
Not sure how this would pan out vs straight dripping into the O0.5 market, still working on them yet. Also in a lot of games liquidity might become an issue with bigger banks.
Out of curiosity what are your respective SRs like?
Test 1 for me is at 82.64, ave KO price of 1.3
Test 2 is: O0.5: 78.5, ave KO price 1.33,
O1.5: 45.2, ave KO price 2.52 -
@Alex-Rule I keep looking at this and haven't gone for it yet .. what sort of SR are you getting out of interest .. my inclination is to split stake it as per one of Martins videos I watched a while back.
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Boring, Boring Thursday!!
Apologies, That game today should be a Lay Draw selection.
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Does anyone here trade FHG market? If so I'm looking for some advice......
I have a really good strat with a high strike rate that I am looking to develop an inplay staking system for (that I can bot automate in future)
I'm wondering if people use a simple % of their stake dripped into the market every 5/10 mins - or whether it might be better to weight the stakes somehow?
Any ideas or thoughts would be appreciated.
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@Mark-Maguire Love that joke!!
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Boring, Boring Thursday!!
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@Tony-Hastie Thanks, that’s interesting. If i were to lose my whole stake thats fine, so long as I’m getting a P/L equivalent to trading at evens(2.0) and strike rate of ideally 60%. Not sure how possible it is though.
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@Chris-King Im by no means an expert but when I was test scalping the first 10 of a match I ran a bot laying the O2.5 goals and another laying the O3.5. The O2.5 was pretty much always quickest and showed more profits. The losses were higher if a goal did come though. Im therefore going to assume 1.5 is even quicker and .5 is the quickest! And probably the quickest way to lose your whole stake
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@Alex-Rule also one of mine, Home have 90% H2 O1.5 so split staking it on LU1.5G.
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@Chris-King said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Afternoon all, thought I would put this to the experts for opinions..
What would be the best way/market to use to obtain the value of an evens trade scalping the first 10-12 mins of a football match, or getting as close to that value?
Which market would drift out the most or quickest?
Do you mean as in you would green up for say £10 profit if it went your way or lose £10 if not? Lioke a scalp dob?
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Afternoon all, thought I would put this to the experts for opinions..
What would be the best way/market to use to obtain the value of an evens trade scalping the first 10-12 mins of a football match, or getting as close to that value?
Which market would drift out the most or quickest?
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@Mark-Maguire I think your coat will get itself with that one
I'd be interested to see what you turn up if you do take a look. I don't have enough data yet to for a conclusive verdict so I might paper trade as if I was weighting the stakes vs equal splits and see which comes out on top for the res of the winter season.
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@Matt-Wood Really interesting that mate and will look at it - you've given me some home work there
A little bit like dutching the various entry points - like it .. Ryan has me obsessing on dutching on the horses at present. .. so double dutch ..
I'll get my coat.Seriously though appreciate the suggestion
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@Mark-Maguire Morning Mark, nice to see your stuff doing so well. I have an O1.5 system similar to yours which is running similar numbers and I am in the process of figuring out the sweet spots for entry/exit.
When you worked yours out did you ever cinsider weighting the stakes, for example taking your stake and splitting it into 4 as you are but not 25% for each, maybe something like 40%, 30%, 20% 10% (hopefully that adds up to 100
). This sort of thing would catch the early goals, as they are such a high % in your data (mine too), with a larger portion of your stake.Hope that makes sense.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
All ok with these tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford Citygreat work!
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All ok with these tonight:
01.5 split stake as described earlier
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
Southend vs Dorking
Portsmouth vs Burton02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Birmingham vs Middlesborough
Tranmere vs Mansfield
Carlisle vs Barnsley
Chesterfield vs Oxford City
