*****New Football Thread*****
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@Mark-Maguire thanks very much mate that's really helpful... there is something missing from my parameters and I'm leaning towards it being something to do with this ... I'm trying to put in a parameter on my filter whereby there is an ELO difference between the teams (haven't decided on figure yet) in favor of either team do you know if this is possible ? Will tag @Adam as it's a software Q
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@Ben-Dobie In short yes I do look at this.. the following is some analysis I did a few weeks ago (needs updating) but gives you an idea .. based on 1500 plus games.. the per centages are relative strike rates
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I'm going back to XScores, although they can be a little behind in updating some of the more obscure leagues..
That looks decent. I'd not seen that one before.
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
And just a random question, but has anybody else's Flash Score stopped showing the HT score?
@Greg-Mitchell It's a policy decision. If you think it's a bad one (as I do), please write to [email protected] and let them know why. If they get enough negative feedback, they might change their minds. The only site I've managed to find that gives HT scores (in a graphic) without having to click on game detais is Total Corner, so I'll be going there for now.
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And just a random question, but has anybody else's Flash Score stopped showing the HT score?
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Morning gang, today's selections below. Have added 3 new strategies, Lay Home, Lay Away and Trade Over 1.5.
I have backtested all 3 back to July 2023, signs are promising, but just be wary.
The two Lays at the moment are Set & Forget, but could eventually become trades. The Over 1.5 is a trade, Back Over 1.5, out after 1st goal if green.
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@Matt-Wood let me know when you set the filter up
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@Matt-Wood I'm in the position where without any drilling down into determining factors (i.e. ELO's, O1.5 Probability, FHG Probability0 I'm getting 78% of goals in the first half across my filters - it feels like there's an opportunity to identify how I can tweak that up a few per cent and nail down an opportunity
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@Matt-Wood
Currently in testing I'm looking at SR of 83% and starting odds of around 1.3I plan to track the goal times and might look to record which time segment of the match they fall into 0-10 / 10-20 etc.
My thought process is that if you equally drip into the market every 5 mins and there are lot's of early goals it's going to kill your bank build when you get a few that go against you and it will wipe out your wins from the early goals.
If I was to put say 50% of my stake on at the start or at 5mins then 25% at 15mins and 25% at 25 mins that might help cover early goals but will lead to a smaller return if that happen consistently.
My other approach is to create a strategy along side this one and add an extra rule that says 0-15mins 50% (or maybe even higher) chance of no goals - then you would expect the majority of your selections to to be 0-0 at 15 mins and you could start dripping in money for higher returns.
Not sure if I am overthinking it or not.
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Morning both, I have two tests running that are not yet ready for money trades but am deliberating on the same thing (without the bot aspect).
One thing I have looked at that my tests have kinda thrown up is the prospect of using the O1.5FH market too. So something like 1 point in 4 drips in the O1.5fh market, 10, 15, 20, and 25 for example, followed by a cover lay in the O0.5 market @ 1.5 for 1/2 a point.
Max loss of 1.5 pts most break even but if a couple of games a month had 2 FHG late on you are going to be quids in!
Not sure how this would pan out vs straight dripping into the O0.5 market, still working on them yet. Also in a lot of games liquidity might become an issue with bigger banks.
Out of curiosity what are your respective SRs like?
Test 1 for me is at 82.64, ave KO price of 1.3
Test 2 is: O0.5: 78.5, ave KO price 1.33,
O1.5: 45.2, ave KO price 2.52 -
@Alex-Rule I keep looking at this and haven't gone for it yet .. what sort of SR are you getting out of interest .. my inclination is to split stake it as per one of Martins videos I watched a while back.
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Boring, Boring Thursday!!
Apologies, That game today should be a Lay Draw selection.
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Does anyone here trade FHG market? If so I'm looking for some advice......
I have a really good strat with a high strike rate that I am looking to develop an inplay staking system for (that I can bot automate in future)
I'm wondering if people use a simple % of their stake dripped into the market every 5/10 mins - or whether it might be better to weight the stakes somehow?
Any ideas or thoughts would be appreciated.
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@Mark-Maguire Love that joke!!
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Boring, Boring Thursday!!
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@Tony-Hastie Thanks, that’s interesting. If i were to lose my whole stake thats fine, so long as I’m getting a P/L equivalent to trading at evens(2.0) and strike rate of ideally 60%. Not sure how possible it is though.
