*****New Football Thread*****
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@mick-mcmahon Tomaz Lay 1.5 strat has been doing well in the long term. Over a years worth of data now as well.
Hang on in there - once the footy update happens it's going to be like opening Pandora's box. The world will never be the same again. You'll be able to back test and then forward test just leaving the strats live in the software (as I understand it). Meaning you can run several strats and collect data at once and not touch them.
Then you will be able to link those to BFBM and and in just a few clicks in the morning your set and forget as well as inplay strats will do done for you!!!!
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@mick-mcmahon 3.0 is here: 1712600619872-filter-settings-3.txt
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Thanks @Martin. Do you have the filters for them and I'll track them too
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@mick-mcmahon lay away 2.0 and 3.0 have been doing well, I did miss the past weekend but apparently they also did very well over the weekend too.
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It just takes soooo long to sort a strat. I had a over 1.5 that I paper tested for about 3 months and had an almost 85% strike rate. Then when I went to start using it I realised the odds for a good chunk of my results where really low
I changed it to record the odds over 0.5, 1.5 & 2.5 but think I accidentally modified as the strike rate dropped
So got a few variations of it now but not quite hitting the 85% again. I also record a few other strats too. Martins lay over 3.5 and lay away among them. But nothing is really setting the world alight.
I created a little web app to import the all results csv from the software and I enter the scores to keep so I can easily follow lots of strats (the goal times ares stores against the match I'd not the start) but still!! Nothing to right home about.
So... Does any have some more-or-less strats that work they be willing to share. I feel I want to see what things people are using to build there's for ideas to modify mine.
Starting again means waiting 3 or so months to realise if you have something or nothing. -
@Simon-Bates this is a good idea mate, I used to do something similar using Smarkets but wasn’t disciplined at all with it, maybe incorporating BTC software to find some value bets will help me leave my Betfair balance alone. Cheers for the response
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@Ben-Dobie I was doing what you was doing, trades outside my plan, It was the excitement of winning and thinking i could do this to every trade I did outside my plan, i quickly realised this was no good for my bank and if I carried on then when it was time to put my normal plan trades on then there wouldn't be enough to cover them all, I thought there's no rush to keep putting trades on cos my plan would give me more filter results the next day so just be patient, what i do when I get itchy trading fingers is forget about Betfair and go through the days footy games and use the BTC software stats to try and work out which teams are likely to win and put a few quid on an acca on one of my bookies accounts, it still gives me the excitement of trying to win by using the software and also learning to use it at the same time and trying different tweaks to win, but without the worry of losing some of my bank, we all do different things to discipline ourselves but this is how I stopped stupid trading outside my plan.
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@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin I'd say probably 4/5 times a week ... weekends when I watch a lot of football can be difficult.
Yesterday was a quiet day and I saw your email and ended up backing Molde to win based upon their form ... tbf they should have won so in essence it wasn't a terrible trade but I get if I'm doing this randomly then I'll see no positive outcome long term in it.
OK I have a challenge for you, I think quitting something like that is quite daunting long term. So try it for a week, say no doing it for just one week. If you get too tempted imagine me on your shoulder going 'uh, uh, uh' (think Denis in Jurrasic Park if you have seen that). Let me know how you get on! If you fail start again.
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@Greg-Mitchell It is mate ... I'm in probably the best spot I've ever been with it tbh and resisted walking away this time and just plugged away, just need to sort this last issue out in my head. I've used automation before and can see how it works well for people, think I'll use it again for certain strats especially ones that don't need a high strike rate but in all honestly I enjoy the trading side of it and deciding how I exit the trade based upon how the game is going if you know what I mean. Sounds like it's working well for you though mate so well done. Thanks for coming back I appreciate it
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@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning all....I'm putting myself out there to be shot at and ridiculed here as I've been trying to master this trading lark for a long time now as some of you will know I've been in and out a couple of times.
I feel I'm closer than ever to being regularly profitable but I know part of this process is self reflection and it's becoming quite obvious to me what is stopping me from making that next step....DISCIPLINE - I know it's a big one but hear me out !
Generally my discipline has improved massively this time around, I don't over stake, I exit losing trades when I should, I don't chase losses etc. BUT...
The one thing I can't seem to get enough control over is jumping on something outside my plan or filters when I believe there is an opportunity to profit ... This isn't all of the time but it's often enough to see me treading water rather than steadily building the bank, whenever I look back at a day that hasn't been profitable or even profitable days I can nearly always cite it back to a trade that was outside of my plan.
I know this should be enough to stop me doing it and sometimes it is but still too often I fall foul of this.Wondering if anybody on here had any sort of strategy or tip for stopping themselves doing this that has worked for them long term !
Thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom
It's a long road isn't it. Nearly 3 years in now and just about trained myself to "stick to the plan" and remove the emotion. I have found automation a massive help in that journey, everything I do is now automated, my horse selections get uploaded automatically. I upload my football selections after doing the calculations in the morning. I also have a number of other strategies on football/horses/greyhounds that just run automatically in BFBM and don't need any tips or selections uploading.
I used to constantly keep an eye on every bet/trade, but once everything is loaded into BFBM I don't look at it again until the following morning. I have also turned off all notifications from Betfair etc, so I'm not constantly getting a reminder of how I'm doing.
I set myself a daily profit target of 5% of my total bank (not individual strategy banks), somedays its more and somedays its less, but as long as the average is ok, I don't look into it any further.
Every morning I download and record all the bets from BFBM, check everything is ok and repeat.
Now don't get me wrong I do have the odd "out of plan" dabble if I'm watching some sport and spot an angle but I keep that totally separate from "the plan"
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@Martin I'd say probably 4/5 times a week ... weekends when I watch a lot of football can be difficult.
Yesterday was a quiet day and I saw your email and ended up backing Molde to win based upon their form ... tbf they should have won so in essence it wasn't a terrible trade but I get if I'm doing this randomly then I'll see no positive outcome long term in it.
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@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Looking historically, do you usually see such a drop in April with teams running out of steam?
You start to see strange results where teams aren't motivated and I am very careful at this time of year, think the old addage of Stoke going on their holidays after they got 40pts under Pulis.
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Morning all....I'm putting myself out there to be shot at and ridiculed here as I've been trying to master this trading lark for a long time now as some of you will know I've been in and out a couple of times.
I feel I'm closer than ever to being regularly profitable but I know part of this process is self reflection and it's becoming quite obvious to me what is stopping me from making that next step....DISCIPLINE - I know it's a big one but hear me out !
Generally my discipline has improved massively this time around, I don't over stake, I exit losing trades when I should, I don't chase losses etc. BUT...
The one thing I can't seem to get enough control over is jumping on something outside my plan or filters when I believe there is an opportunity to profit ... This isn't all of the time but it's often enough to see me treading water rather than steadily building the bank, whenever I look back at a day that hasn't been profitable or even profitable days I can nearly always cite it back to a trade that was outside of my plan.
I know this should be enough to stop me doing it and sometimes it is but still too often I fall foul of this.Wondering if anybody on here had any sort of strategy or tip for stopping themselves doing this that has worked for them long term !
Thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom
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@Alex-Rule Great point! On that topic what do we all think is the perfect set of football strategies to have the best mix/diverse portfolio?
In terms of what I am live trading or testing, I’m looking at:
Lay Away Team
O1.5
U3.5
U1.5
SHGFeels diverse enough but interested what others think!
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Looking historically, do you usually see such a drop in April with teams running out of steam?
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@mick-mcmahon I'm finding diversity is key. You need to have a mix of set and forget and inplay strats to weather the storm. Spreading across different markets helps as well!
My main LTD strat dropped over 10 points the first weekend of April and it's still negative for the month - will be lucky to break even I think. Given me a real boost not to rest my hopes and dreams on one strat as a banker and keep creating and playing to create a set of great strats!
