*****New Football Thread*****
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@Martin - could I ask a question / suggest a video?
In your in play goal vids you lay off some of your stake through out to limit risk. Can you explain how you calculate the values and ratios while you are trading inplay? And the benefit to that method vs a partial cashout via Betfair?
Cheers
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@Simon-Bates Worth taking a look at Maria staking as you are kind of close to doing something similar there.
Only issue that’s put me off staking to fixed liability is that essentially you are often reliant on those at the bottom of the odds range doing well to succeed, and they are the ones that are the least likely to win (based on odds).
However (to sound like Martin) it’s all in the data, so if it works then all good!
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One of my O1.5 strategies has a strikerate of 82% It has an odds range of 2.6 to 8.8, I was only doing £1 lays but even though my bank was in profit from it, It was growing too slowly, the games with lay odds of 8 to 8.8 have a 90% strikerate so not very often I'd get a losing lay trade which would take me at least 7 winning trades to get back in profit from.
So what I did was go through my odds range and worked out how much to put on each lay trade so the liabilty would never be more than £5, obviously the lay odds of 6.2 to 8.8 would lose more than £5 if the trade lost cos the lowest you can put on is £1, but the strikerates for these odds is good and I'm comfortable with them.
I've kept recording both £1 lay trades and the variable £ trades and I've noticed that my profit has nearly doubled in the last 9 days I've started doing this.
I'm asking for advice on wether anyone can see any flaws with what I'm doing or any hidden things that might pop up that could lead to disaster, or does anyone else put variable stakes on different odds, I'd like your opinions on this so I can change or tweak my approach to each trade I do if needed.
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@Matt-Wood said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin They have smashed Serie A this year so not surprised they are taking it easy now.
Went to see them a couple of weeks ago what a Stadium!
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@Matt-Wood said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd came up on mine too, but Inter have nothing to play for so I'm giving it a miss.
Watched the Inter game and it felt like a friendly until the red card!
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@Matt-Wood said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd came up on mine too, but Inter have nothing to play for so I'm giving it a miss.
Agreed Matt
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@Alastair-Todd came up on mine too, but Inter have nothing to play for so I'm giving it a miss.
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Any ideas about the Inter v Torino match today. My 1.5 goals filter threw it up. Interesting that Inter are 1.58 and Torino 7.2 in the match odds, but the 1.5 odds are relatively high at 1.33?
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Here's a few home teams I think have a good chance of winning:
Home Wins:
12:30 – Derby v Northampton (1.25)
15:00 – Newcastle v Sheffield United (1.23)
17:00 – Fenerbache v Besiktas (1.47)
17:30 – Larne v Coleraine (1.41)
17:30 – Linfield v Cliftonville (1.73)
19:45 – Lazio v Verona (1.72)
20:00 - Vasco da Gama vs CriciúmaNewcastle will relegate my team today
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Here's a few home teams I think have a good chance of winning:
Home Wins:
12:30 – Derby v Northampton (1.25)
15:00 – Newcastle v Sheffield United (1.23)
17:00 – Fenerbache v Besiktas (1.47)
17:30 – Larne v Coleraine (1.41)
17:30 – Linfield v Cliftonville (1.73)
19:45 – Lazio v Verona (1.72)
20:00 - Vasco da Gama vs Criciúma -
I'll be keeping an eye of these matches today:
Over 1.5 Goals (BTC):
12:00 - Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern
12:30 - West Ham United vs Liverpool
12:30 - Barnsley vs Northampton Town
12:30 - Peterborough United vs Bolton Wanderers
12:35 - Shanghai Port vs Shanghai Shenhua
13:00 - Haka vs HJK
15:00 - Newcastle United vs Sheffield United
15:00 - Manchester United vs Burnley
15:00 - Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Luton Town
15:00 - Southampton vs Stoke City
15:00 - Wrexham vs Stockport County
17:00 - Rosenborg vs Bodø / Glimt
18:45 - Austin vs LA Galaxy
20:00 - Aston Villa vs ChelseaSHG:
08:15 – Wellington Phoenix v Macarthur
12:00 - Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern
12:30 – West Ham v Liverpool
12:30 – Exeter v Oxford
12:30 – Barnsley v Northampton
12:30 – Derby v Carlisle
13:00 – Las Palms v Girona
13:00 - Haka vs HJK
14:30 – Leipzig v Dortmund
15:00 – Newcastle v Sheffield United
15:00 – Man United v Burnley
15:00 – Bristol City v Rotherham
15:00 – Norwich v Swansea
15:00 – Southampton v Stoke
15:00 – Swindon v Morecambe
15:00 – Salford v Harrogate
15:00 – Crawley v Grimsby
17:00 – Fenerbache v Besiktas
17:00 - Rosenborg vs Bodø / Glimt
17:30 – Leverkusen v Stuttgart
18:00 – Benfica v Braga
19:45 – Lazio v Verona
19:45 - Gent vs Westerlo
20:00 - Vasco da Gama vs Criciúma -
@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@andrew-page Yes I remember the Faroe Islands league being goals galore. Iceland similar if memory serves.
yes Iceland pretty much a goals league
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@andrew-page BTTS is even money?
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@andrew-page what do you think about the game in Laliga tonight? Real madrid are not favourites away to real sociead? yes madrid have Bayeren on tuesday, whats your thoughts?
Im playing over 1.5 goals Sociedad still not got European football secure yet so im getting involved on basis they will be all out for the win
Madrid nothing to play for so may coast i may be wrong tho!
