*****New Football Thread*****
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https://share.icloud.com/photos/069ApE4w2yeSBixcDFRUc2R9Q
Where next then @Ryan?!?
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
According to Grok, 'Tottenham has won only 1 of their last 38 matches away to Chelsea in all competitions'.
Lay Tottenham at 2.92
Just out of interest, Grok thinks this match will finish 3-2
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Anyone else quite want Kane to win a Champions League?
No!!
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According to Grok, 'Tottenham has won only 1 of their last 38 matches away to Chelsea in all competitions'.
Lay Tottenham at 2.92
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Alex-Rule sounds good
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@Martin Got ya - I do tend to prefer a straight back or lay. Eg - late goal and just let it run. But good to know for future for sure.
I'm testing some over 2.5 goals strats at 30 min entry so could be a good option for sure if only 2 goals and at 80 mins or so.
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Noticed some people looking at leagues and amounts of games trying to see when to stop trading etc.
Here is a link to a simple spreadsheet I use, I have tried to make it as accurate as possible but if anybody notices a mistake plase shout at me.
I have left out some of the more obscure and, frankly, crazy leagues.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16sXcP8P6Yxh_7Sd85bw_HxUV0W2oUQ9QDpC6h0R0Br4/edit?usp=sharing
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@Andy-Donnelly I'm still a paid up member of Odds Monkey for my matched betting, I've seen that Maria staking mentioned on there and thought it was a member strategy
I'll look into it thanks 
My odds range and my strikerate makes it comfortable for my trading so thats why im ok trying it, yesterday I got another full house, 17/17, my £1 lay was 100% ROI while my variable staking gave me 156% ROI, I can see the difference both make, today for instance, i only have 4 trades, the 1st one lost which now means my £variable lay will make more loss than my £1 lay.
Since I started variable staking 10 days ago, only 3 days, today included, have been in favour of £1 lays, -0.34, -6.33 and a small loss difference today, but my variable staking is still well ahead in terms of ROI, so I'll just carry on and tread carefully and see if it this is the right way for me. -
@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin - LIVE Under 2.5 Goals Strategy Betfair Trading - Reducing Risk In-Play
But I guess it could be applied to any market?
Benefit is more control over your trade and you calculate ratios etc by testing the selections and seeing what works best.
what you need to work out is your profit to loss ratio
so what % of your stake do you win if no goal
and what % of your stake do you lose if a goal
then compare that to your strikerate
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@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin - could I ask a question / suggest a video?
In your in play goal vids you lay off some of your stake through out to limit risk. Can you explain how you calculate the values and ratios while you are trading inplay? And the benefit to that method vs a partial cashout via Betfair?
Cheers
What was the market/trade?
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@Matt-Wood said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin Wow! fantastic, the San Siro is not one I've been to yet. I bet the atmosphere is amazing in that stadium with the Italian fans.
different gravy
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@Martin - could I ask a question / suggest a video?
In your in play goal vids you lay off some of your stake through out to limit risk. Can you explain how you calculate the values and ratios while you are trading inplay? And the benefit to that method vs a partial cashout via Betfair?
Cheers
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@Simon-Bates Worth taking a look at Maria staking as you are kind of close to doing something similar there.
Only issue that’s put me off staking to fixed liability is that essentially you are often reliant on those at the bottom of the odds range doing well to succeed, and they are the ones that are the least likely to win (based on odds).
However (to sound like Martin) it’s all in the data, so if it works then all good!
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One of my O1.5 strategies has a strikerate of 82% It has an odds range of 2.6 to 8.8, I was only doing £1 lays but even though my bank was in profit from it, It was growing too slowly, the games with lay odds of 8 to 8.8 have a 90% strikerate so not very often I'd get a losing lay trade which would take me at least 7 winning trades to get back in profit from.
So what I did was go through my odds range and worked out how much to put on each lay trade so the liabilty would never be more than £5, obviously the lay odds of 6.2 to 8.8 would lose more than £5 if the trade lost cos the lowest you can put on is £1, but the strikerates for these odds is good and I'm comfortable with them.
I've kept recording both £1 lay trades and the variable £ trades and I've noticed that my profit has nearly doubled in the last 9 days I've started doing this.
I'm asking for advice on wether anyone can see any flaws with what I'm doing or any hidden things that might pop up that could lead to disaster, or does anyone else put variable stakes on different odds, I'd like your opinions on this so I can change or tweak my approach to each trade I do if needed.
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@Matt-Wood said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin They have smashed Serie A this year so not surprised they are taking it easy now.
Went to see them a couple of weeks ago what a Stadium!
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