*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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Quite annoying when there are no goals in the first half and 5 in the second half!
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@Martin I've got over 4,000 fixtures tracked since September '23 which you'd assume would be more than enough but there are still blindspots within certain leagues where there simply isn't enough data - in fact this could be true across the board; out of the 64 leagues I've been logging data from, only 9 of them have over 100 selections, and not a single league has returned over 200 picks!
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@Martin I like 1000 results or at least 3 months of backtesting but I do think it varies.
I think if the strategy follows your original theory then the above is ok but I think if you inadvertently find a strategy out of the data you had been tracking or if you have flipped your strategy because it was originally doing badly, I think you need more data to prove the reverse strategy, probably twice as much.
Along similar lines how much forward testing data do you want to see to get to the point where you think it validates the backtesting?
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@Alastair-Todd I am not sure to be honest, see you have sent in a support request so Adam will pick it up
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I'm on these two tonight
PSG vs Strasbourg: Half with most Goals (2nd Half) is currently EVS on Bet365
Real Oviedo vs Espanyol: 1.55 on Betfair Exchange
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@Akiva-Anderson that is promising then... think it is the only way to make VAR work long term...
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@Shannon-Townsend said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Think your points are very valid and ref is the main reason delays...
Make VAR a review system like Cricket... 2 each a half and you keep them if you're correct
Give a max time to take a set piece or play switches to other team
Copy rugby and clock stops when ball out of play
They've been using that review system in the Under 20 World Cup in Chile. We're at the semi-final stage tonight. I like it. Each team has two reviews over 90 minutes. If the referee changes their decision, then the team doesn't lose the review. They only lose a review if the original decision stands. Each team gets an additional review if the game goes into extra time.
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Think your points are very valid and ref is the main reason delays...
Make VAR a review system like Cricket... 2 each a half and you keep them if you're correct
Give a max time to take a set piece or play switches to other team
Copy rugby and clock stops when ball out of play
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@Akiva-Anderson funny how they manage to get physios on in a much more dangerous sport like rugby and keep playing isn't it!
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"Premier League matches this season are lasting an average of 100 minutes and 36 seconds, but the ball is only in play for 54.7% of that time according to new data"
What can be done to improve the amount of time that the ball is in play?
I've a few things:
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Stop the officials interfering at every corner. No need to warn players for pushing and shoving at every corner. Give a foul if it is needed.
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Stop interrupting play when a player is down injured (unless it's a head injury). If play is stopped and the physio is not needed, then the player should be forced off the field.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson got to be good for ltd that league!
Yes, and good for FHG. SHG and Over 1.5 Goals
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@Akiva-Anderson got to be good for ltd that league!
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The Australian A-League starts back on Friday!
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@Martin raw data is around 770 selections since 21 Dec.
Selections I'm using to lay home almost 235.
Selections in leagues doing poorly (alot of Central and South American leagues but not all) just under 160. Would be almost 50% s/r at average odds around 3.5 I think.
The rest are filtered out. About 40% s/r with similar odds.
Initially I'm just laying the home but I'm trying not to waste any data anymore.
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@Patrik-Mellqvist fantastic write up! I love the analogy of trading as an art form, I tend to just look at is as maths but I totally get why looking at it creatively like that helps.
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@Shannon-Townsend sounds promising! Mine is around 230 selections so still early days too
