*****New Football Thread*****

[Akiva Anderson]

Dortmund v Celtic.

Fancy Dortmund to win, but I'm laying the Under 1.5 Goals at 7.0 for the safer option.

[Martin]

@Stephen-Hancox great to hear, was thinking I might do the podcast with Ryan could be better to bounce reactions off each other

[Stephen Hancox]

@Martin I'm loving the overreactions podcasts as well. Something a bit different but topical. Plenty of trading angle ideas.

I've noticed on the football stats that English Champ, League 1 and league 2 had XG stats last season but don't this season. Is this something that has been binned? Or could be added back on?

[Martin]

@Arran-Shackell didn't get a great response as a video but seems to work well as a podcast glad you are enjoying it!

[Arran Shackell]

Overreactions is a good podcast to listen too @Martin

Especially for someone like myself who never had football as their ‘first’ sport.

[mick mcmahon]

@Akiva-Anderson good info. I am terrible at keeping spreadsheets up to date so wrote some code to parse a days results from sofascore. And store that in a database. Going to write some more code so I can click on a match and record a bet...

[Akiva Anderson]

A few stats from the Premier League matches so far:

General Stats:

Games Played: 59
Home Wins: 20 (34%)
Draws: 18 (31%)
Away Wins: 21 (36%)
Total Goals: 166 (2.81)

Over / Under:

Over 0.5 Goals: 57 (97%)
Over 1.5 Goals: 50 (85%)
Over 2.5 Goals: 32 (54%)

Goals by Half:

Over 0.5 1H Goals: 47 (80%)
Over 1.5 1H Goals: 21 (36%)

Over 0.5 2H Goals: 51 (86%)
Over 1.5 2H Goals: 21 (36%)

[Martin]

@Arran-Shackell probably more due to Spurs Jekyll and Hyde nature!

[Arran Shackell]

@Martin

Hills had Utd priced just under EVS just before kick off!

[Akiva Anderson]

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

backed Ten Haag to be next prem manager to leave at HT he was odds of 4, traded out at FT for nice profit odds of 1.8

I said in the podcast he should be sacked last week after watching them play out a 0-0 at Palace and not try to score at the end was pathetic. I'm amazed Utd fans aren't more up in arms

Give him a 10 year contract please!

[Martin]

@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

backed Ten Haag to be next prem manager to leave at HT he was odds of 4, traded out at FT for nice profit odds of 1.8

I said in the podcast he should be sacked last week after watching them play out a 0-0 at Palace and not try to score at the end was pathetic. I'm amazed Utd fans aren't more up in arms

[Arran Shackell]

This thread has been very quiet recently. Has everyone had a good weekend?

[Greg Mitchell]

backed Ten Haag to be next prem manager to leave at HT he was odds of 4, traded out at FT for nice profit odds of 1.8

[Martin]

@Richard-Latimer I mean they are usually very good on NI games

[Richard Latimer]

@Martin Random s**t that makes no sense is very like them.

I'm not spreading my money around but I wanted to lay Coleraine.

[Martin]

@Richard-Latimer not like them is it!

[Richard Latimer]

So only 1 Northern Ireland game on betfair today. Bit annoying

[Simon Bates]

@Shannon-Townsend cashed out at half time, too early

[Shannon Townsend]

Anyone else's eyes light up when Liverpool went 1 nil down tonight... odds went to 2.2 for Liverpool win and was green and on a free bet within 4 mins...took the profit at 2-1... if Carlsberg did in play trades...

[Matt Wood]

Thanks for all the replies. Loads of stuff to think about there.

@Richard-Latimer Totally agree with you about starting with the stats before leagues. I only had a look at it the other way around to shut the little voice in my head up. Whilst it did produce some interesting results, it doesn't make sense.

@Alex-Rendell Averaging around 200 selections per month at the moment. The initial set was very broad and was just an idea I had that I did not really expect much from. Funny how things go when you look at the numbers though. Rolling seasons seems like a good idea, I'll steal that too.

@Stuart-Capstick Evening Stuart, Ive always had in mind that if I can get a solid LTD out of this then SHG trades would be possible if the games are drawing at HT. I am mindful, like you say, that this is only 1 seasons worth of data and would like to have another to back it up and see if the trends follow year to year. Interestingly I had a look at the losing selections and it seems like a BTD could be possible from this data too.