*****New Football Thread*****
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@Akiva-Anderson I think they will but 1.19 to qualify that's confidence!
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@Martin U3.5 at 1.3 looks decent when you factor in only one knockout game under Southgate went over that line
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
6.0 looks big on Slovakia to qualify. England should get through but I wouldn't want to back them at 1.19 from what I have seen so far!
Took England to win tonight at 1.46
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Nick-Allan so are you saying 100 selections per year? This can be hard to do well on long term as that's only an average of 1 selection per 3.65 days.
That said these strategies can sometimes have the biggest edges as it makes sense that big value prices would not occur all the time.
I prefer as many results as possible really and if you have backtesting I would want more than two years in this case. I guess forward testing will be the place to add time to it.
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So in the summer months which are quieter I’m doing a lot more back testing of strategies.
But one of things I’m struggling with is the amount of selections I’m getting, and to see if it’s a viable sample. So, say I’m doing an Over 2.5 goal back testing over 2 seasons in CGM (which some may use). In order to look at good strike rate and yield I may end up with only 200 games. Of course I would look at those 200 games in greater detail but should I be looking for a larger section of games with a lower yield or strike rate? So if you have 200 games at say 38% SR and 6 point yield but you have 300 games with say 35% SR and 2 point yield, which is better to analyse?
Common sense would say you favour the higher SR and yield? Of course each future selection needs analysis but i mainly want to ask about parameters that others look for in back testing a strategy? -
Looks like Holland are most likely opponent next. If that does end up the case, then I hate saying it but I don’t think he can keep Foden in the team unless we have a better end to end left back (which we don’t).
Expect he’ll match them up and play a flat midfield three (rice, Bellingham and Mainoo) and thus no room for a number 10.
In other news, Austria trade went well yesterday. Shame I didn’t take my own advise and pull the trigger on the Swiss as well. Missed that one, they went from 70 to 48 yesterday without kicking a ball.
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hard to argue with any of this.
We are beyond boring!
100% agree
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@Wayne-Thomas 100% its not fluid, there's hardly any movement at all.
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Hard to argue with any of this.
We are beyond boring!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Akiva-Anderson Absolutely. I really get the feeling those players hate playing that way. You can see the resistance to it in their attitude and effort. The sloppiness of the passing last night was ridiculous. They're really not buying into it at all. There don't seem to be any established patterns of play and every time I watch, I'm left wondering how an earth they're going to create a chance. Utter garbage!
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England performances reflect their manager’s personality, utterly f*****g boring
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@Andy-Donnelly Austria have looked very good, unlucky vs France too!
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Other interesting team of note in the outrights is Switzerland. Think they are overpriced to beat Italy, and then drawn to probably play England next, which wouldn’t be beyond them unless England improve.
70 at the moment but more speculative, so wouldn’t be massive stakes
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@Martin Like the looks of Austria as a good trading opportunity. Largely because you get two cracks at a possible drop in price.
Odds at 60 now. Think they could easily spring a suprise on the Dutch tonight and if they were to win they would play second place from Belgiums group in the next round so would expect price to at least drop to 40 and probably shorter if they won.
If they lose or draw they are pretty much certain to go through anyway and currently if my reading of the third place permutations is correct, they are probably most likely to play the team that finishes top in Belgium’s group. Belgium aside they probably go into the game as favs, which should reduce price from current position and even if it is Belgium, I think they could give them a scare as well, which could provide an opportunity to lay off at some point
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@Arran-Shackell you can see momentum shifts so clearly though, for example the Croatia matched turned on their goal. Italy suddenly started looking really dangerous.
Hungary v Scotland it was like someone flipped the on switch once the 10 minutes of injury time started.
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I’ll be sitting it out for a while I think.
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@Arran-Shackell Yep, felt like everything i went near at the weekend was wrong... got me questioning everything but looked at my data and that has reassured me its hopefully just a blip...
