Simon's Manifesto - Consitency (2023)
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So not a great week for my strategy. Bank holiday Monday I record my longest losing streak of 3 losses and ended up with 7 out of 10 as losers. Bot fired correctly so just looks like variance.
It had recovered by Thursday but then had another couple of small losing days. Going to get weeks like this, still up this month so not too concerned.I now have a list of courses and number of races, so hopefully in a couple of months will be able to start analysing it for trends.
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@simon-topper fantastic!
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Another good week, 118 markets traded all through my bots.
A bit more profit than expected as I was experimenting with staking last Monday. Will be sticking with flat stakes at the moment, makes it easier to record everything.
Hopefully can work on my excel skills, so I just manipulate the betting history file to get the information I need.
Upped my stakes by a little bit again this week.
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@simon-topper said in Simon's Manifesto - Consitency:
Today was a good day, had a big loss (points wise) -13 on a LTBF didn't batter an eyelid. Just shrugged and continued on. Before, this would have tilted me and I would of started chasing losses.
good progress, I'm guessing the -13 wasn't anything to worry about in relation to the strategy?
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Today was a good day, had a big loss (points wise) -13 on a LTBF didn't batter an eyelid. Just shrugged and continued on. Before, this would have tilted me and I would of started chasing losses.
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A great week, new strategy working well along with the Lay The Beaten Favourite.
The new strategy fired on over 100 markets this week, but only 80 registered a profit/loss. Still only matching with the back testing about 70% of the time, but odds change every second. Will just have to keep an eye on it and make sure nothing erroneous is occurring.
Just need to follow my process each day this week, have been very disciplined even when at home and could have checked all the time.
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@simon-topper this is next level thinking! love it! following with interest.
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My first strategy from Scratch
Before reading on this strategy only works if automated (I use Bet Angel), you could do it manually but it would be madness.
I have always layed horses, so wanted something based on that. As I was going through the horse racing strategy thread, somebody had put in a lay the 4th with attached rules. This sounded an ideal place to start.
Back testing showed it was profitable, but some of the rules made it difficult to automate in Bet Angel.I deleted those rules, so I was just left with the following, which was still profitable:
At 33 courses, I will lay the 4th Favourite at odds between 2.5-7.8, 1 minute before the off.
Then I created the rule in Bet Angel.
Now all I must do every morning is check the courses running, select all the races and apply the rule (takes about 2 minutes)
This has been running since the 1st April and has now made 10 points (until 24th when it lost 9.4)I thought I needed to understand how this worked and if I could build something similar.
Using the horse racing software I put a very simple rule in:
lay the 4th favourite at all courses with odds under 2.5-7.8, 1 minute before the start. This comes out at a 10point loss for the year.
I then tried looking it at different time points and found between 5 and 15 minutes before it came out at around 120 point profit for the year so far! At this point I thought I would run it against all the saved data so roughly 2 years and it came out at 1200points (over 10,000 selections) since April 2021!
I exported the selections to Excel and then created a pivot table, listing points every year and found that there were some courses which always lost consistently (some of them below).
Now, I think this is too good to be true, so am hunting for the flaw.
I have created a new rule in Bet Angel (practice mode) which will put a lay bet at 10:10, 10:05, 10:00, 9:55 & 9:50 to see if I can the back testing software and my live results to closely match.FOUND THE FLAW
So anybody figured it out?
Was staring me in the face the software tells you the 4th favourite at BSP and I was looking at it 10 minutes in advance, would need a Tardis to figure it out or would I?I started thinking some more and though what do I know? I know the 4th favourite would have odds between 2.5 & 7.8, but what if I narrowed it down to 4-8? A few loss of points but still profitable.
So I would lay every horse at odds of 4-8 at 15 minutes out. Then 10 seconds before the race officially starts I would back every horse that I had layed except the 4th Favourite. See output below:
As you can see Jenson Benson was the 4th Fav in this race.
Now there are some drawbacks to this approach, as the odds drift around you can come out losing a bit extra but sometimes it works in your favour.
I have deployed this with £1 stakes, as trying to run it in practice mode was a real headache recording wise. I will update on Sunday with the first set of results.If at the end of May it's still performing well, I will link the strategy file and the Bet Angel automation file. It's still too early days to be sure if this will work out.
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@simon-topper Looking like back on track now.
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So after the wobble earlier in the month, just stripped everything back and can see the results this week. Just need to carry on rinse and repeat each week.
I was going to go through my new strategy which seemed great, but I can't get the back testing data to match what is happening with the automation. I have found the flaw, just don't know if I can rectify it in a suitable way yet.
Just need to stick to the plan again next week.
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@simon-topper Nice! That lay the beaten fav one is a big fave around here!
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@Ryan I am using the selections from the Lay the beaten favourite but just changed the parameters a bit.
I also am doing a lay the 4th Fav strategy, which seems to be performing well. I am going to outline how I came up with it at the weekend, along with some results. -
@simon-topper brilliant following this with interest!
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@simon-topper I love this!
My fave is that you have deleted the app off your phone, I might make a video about that actually lol because it would make it a lot easier for people to not go crazy!
Out of interest what are the strategies you are using?
One of the things we are seeing a lot of now is people love their job, but they know it won't pay them what they want so they are looking at other means that dont impact their lives too much - trading on sports is now seen as a proper way of doing so.
I love that!
