Simon's Manifesto - Consitency (2023)
-
@simon-topper sod's law isn't it!
-
@simon-topper sods law isn't it!
-
So not a great week profit wise, upped my stakes and had a bad run. At least I know the fundamentals are sound, so will hopefully recover this week.
Still in profit for the month so can't complain. Have a couple of strategies on test and will see how they perform.
-
@simon-topper heck of a deal that!
-
@Martin It was only £90 but I am only using it for BFBM don't think it would be much use for proper work.
HP EliteDesk 800 G2
-
@simon-topper I need a new Laptop or PC for out of the home office work. How much was it?
-
So another great week, bit of a delay this week as last night I was watching Blur at Wembley (Bloody amazing).
I have upped my stakes a little bit on my strategies at the end of this week.
Found a cheap mini PC on ebay, just waiting on it then going to configure it and stop using the laptop.
Have to say using BFBM has been a revelation, once the new football software is out and we can import our selections (presume that will be possible) this could become hands off a lot of the time.
-
@simon-topper great work mate, thanks for this update! Good idea RE: phone got to admit I hardly ever log in on mobile
-
So another good week, although yesterday I had a wobble.
I have been placing the lay away football from my phone and saved my Betfair password. So I ended up placing a few random bets (which of course lost) so my discipline obviously isn't there. Deleted password again and will place it from my PC, even if it means losing a few opportunities.
Trialling a couple of new strategies on minimum stakes, have set up BF bot manager which is importing races automatically now. Have found the PC I use can't handle multiple instances of BFBM so will need a new upgrade (rooting around Ebay for something)Now been 3 months, April and June profitable, and May was just a bloodbath on the LTBF so nothing I could really do about it. Hopefully next 3 months will all be profitable.
-
@simon-topper great stuff as ever! Thanks for the update
-
So another great week for the 2 main strategies I use.
I have decided to park my lay strategy, has over 500 selections but just can't get it my bot to make it work. Tried a couple of different ways of staking and exiting the market but leads to just as much of a loss, unfortunately not failing badly enough to flip it.
Might return to it in the future.
I will now start looking at other strategies, think I need to be thinking quality rather than quantity. At least it's taught me the process, so will just rinse and repeat with next one I try.
-
So a good week this week, everything ticking over nicely. Still having issues with my 4th lay strategy, just trying to get the bot to fire in a consistent manner. After looking at it in detail my main issue is the placement of bets at 10 minutes out, there seems to be one selection that comes in a lot shorter and goes on to win (I am wondering if I did something similar in reverse would it be profitable?)
Tightened up my criteria for placing the bets at 10 minutes to see if that helps, wish there was a way I could get a snapshot of the market at the point the bets are placed to see if I can see any patterns there.
-
@simon-topper yeah lay away has had a good run!
-
So another week, looked into my lay strategy and it's just not matching the back testing results from the software. I am going to make some tweaks to the bot over the next couple of weeks to see if I can bring it more into line.
The lay away football is storming this week (I have been filtering these so far so good).
-
@simon-topper let me know how it gets on!
-
@Martin yes saw that, going to set it up and run it in practice mode for a few days.
-
@simon-topper Good work!
Have you seen the lay the 3rd fav I posted yesterday? Been doing very well!
-
So a much better week this time around. My lay the 4th has hit the 500 selection mark so will do a bit of a deep dive this week and see if it can be improved.
-
So another terrible week, will need to reduce my stakes to minimum and start building bank back up.
Thankfully this is not all my bank and I could add more, but I need to prove myself that I can recover calmly and not just throw more money in.Hopefully things will start to turn a corner next month and I can have another profitable month.
-
So as you can see a terrible week, know the LTBF had a really bad week.
My own strategy followed a similar path although I lost about 10 points due to my bot not firing correctly.
Hopefully next week will be profitable, at least since scrapping everything else I am still in profit.
Main thing to take away is I haven't deviated from the plan I put in place, so will just keep on rolling as I know this should even out over the long term.
