rugby....Rugby...RUGBY!(Union)
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Ive started keeping a record of all rugby(15s and 7s) I find on betfair. The parameters Im starting out with are, wait for it ALL rugby. Home team favourite (in the 7s, home team is team listed first) with odds between 1.25 and 1.5. Setting and forgetting...
Edit- Ive set the bot up with a Β£1 back(and a 200 volume condition) and will now be backing(and recording) ALL home teams. 7s is still on the outer, too random and not enough volume...
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A shortened April(from 20th) broke down to...
43 games- 27 wins, 16 losses for a 64% strike rate and a 3 point gain.Average odds taken 2.43.
Roll on summer!
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Very much interested in this!
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What a difference a slight change of tactics makes
March gave me...
64 games- 42 wins, 22 losses for a 66% strike rate. The second lowest strike rate since I started recording. But by for the biggest profit month with a 12 point gain. The bot is still set for a Β£1 back of any home team with odds over 1.1(and a low volume condition)Biggest upset was the Western force beating the Reds in Super rugby. The Force were going off at 5.56.
Average odds taken 2.2
I know its not the end of the month btw! But am off to New Zealand on Wednesday for 3 weeks so all recording will cease until I get back...
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Well, my back every home team has gotten off to a flyer!
Super rugby
Drua beating Crusaders
Red beating Chiefs6 nations
Italy beating Scotland
England beating IrelandAll what I would class major upsets and Im up 14 points for the weekend. If only it wasnt 50p stakes
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@Tony-Hastie you could record the results without putting money on to get more data
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February was a much better month, less games though!
10 games- 9 wins, 1 loss for a 90% SR
Adding 3 point to the bank.
And good to see some Super rugby pacific popping up...including a excellent opening season win from the mighty Chiefs vs the Crusaders(defending champions)@Martin taking your 1000 results before a strategy is fully tested into account would it be beneficial for me to broaden my criteria(to maybe back every home team) just to accumulate data quicker? 4 months has netted me just shy of 80 results...at this rate Ill have to hand things over to my grandkids to continue long after my death
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@Tony-Hastie Its only because its a home Olympics for DuPont! Doubt many players would go to sevens for Olympics much generally!
Yeh England lay gone out. Still could come in next week so possibly still an entry to come. Would expect England to beat Wales and then lose their last two
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@Tony-Hastie surprised people are dropping out for 7s is that big now?
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@Andy-Donnelly 24-27...that didnt bring the lay price down any
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@Tony-Hastie Yeh I read it the same way. France and Ireland are a class above despite some notable omissions. Iβd probably have Scotland marginal 3rd favs, then England after that
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@Andy-Donnelly Cant see England winning it tbh. The draw helped them in the WC and thats probably why they are shorter than you expect. Hard to go past Ireland and France...although Ireland will need to perform without Sexton(I think they will) and Ive just heard Dupont has made himself unavailable for 6 nations to concentrate on 7s. He is world class and will be missed...
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@Tony-Hastie Whatβs your view on the six nations?
I really want to get on an England lay on the outrights. Just think the market is wrong on them. Price was hovering around 7 last week but now 8.4. Personally think England should be more like 14-15. Just debating with myself whether to place trade pre tournament or hope they win the opener and get in when the price comes in a bit.
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Worst month since my Records began...
19 games caught, 10 wins for a measly 53%(rounded up!) SR and a 5 point loss for the month.
Overall loss 2 points.Roll on the six nations...
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Decemeber:-
28 games- 20 wins, 8 losses for a 71% SR
Adding 1 point to the bank.Tempted to tweak things...but know I shouldnt! But if I was going to, changing the odds range to 1.3-1.6 would be beneficial.
But Im not going to
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November bounty, 17 wins out of 21 games backed(home team fave, odds 1.25-1.65) for an 81% strike rate and a 2 point gain. Good to be getting on some games again...
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Righto, WC over....back into it....
Ive automated the Β£1 stake on the home fav with odds between 1.25 and 1.65 chucked in a (low) volume condition and set the bot to back 10 sec before the start. So wont miss games(and should get a truer representation of odds), unless I forget to load the weekend games! As a result I wont be recording the lay side of things anymore. Attempting to work smarter not harder
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@Jonathan-West I couldnt trade that mate, totally glued to my seat for the entire game. Massive win for the ABs against a brilliant Irish side. Very Happy household here
I did have a free bet I punted on the ABs though does that count as trading?
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@Tony-Hastie how's the RWC treating you? It's been very kind to me so far. Just about to watch and trade the Ireland v NZ game. Ireland too short at the start for me but we'll see