Home Win Shorties
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Bank Holiday Weekend Results:
Saturday 6th May
Ferencvarosi vs Kisvarda Master Good (Trade) Home Win
Amsterdam vs Alkmaar (Trade) Draw
Benfica vs Braga (Trade) Home WinSunday 7th May
Basel 1893 vs Zurich (No Trade - HW Odds > 2.0) Away Win
Dortmund vs Wolfsburg (Trade) Home WinMonday 8th May
CSKA Sofia vs Vratsa (Trade) Home Win
Below par Ajax spoil a clean sweep of the games traded this weekend, but still a decent overall set of results.
As it stands, cumulative profit and comparison stands at:
Current Staking Plan: +12.70 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +54.82 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +26.60 pointsEven more promising has been the other data I have collected recently. The same games (as a group collectively) are giving me the following stats:
Home Team +0.5 FHG - 68% SR
Home Team +0.5 SHG - 77% SR
Total Goals +1.5 - 82% SR
Home Goal Avg. 2.51More analysis to be done before going live with this next season!
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@taff-phillips I'll tag @Adam see if there is one
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Is there any way to get a text document of all the available stats options in this menu...
If so I can try and marry up as many filters as
possiblepractical in my next data analysis run.Obviously I want to stay cognisant that I could end up over filtering and end up with no/very few selections. But I might be able to create some Data Validation drop downs so people could live adjust filters to see what gives the best results?
To date I've considered:
FT Result
HT Result
FHGs
SHGs
Total Goals
Time of GoalsBut there could be value in looking at:
Shots (H/A, F/A)
SoT (H/A, F/A)
Winning Margins
HT/FTThe list goes on really. We could end up with a sub set of strategies based upon initially looking at what makes these top teams successful?
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These are the initial things I reverse engineered from my team selections that we discussed in email:
These are overall statistics for the 25 teams combined.
I still have yet to look at exact goal times (Home and Away separated) and sub-categorise these into minutes based upon the BTC Software filters to see if there's anything more to glean from this.
Additionally I will then set up the above data tables again and break it out for each one of the 25 teams individually.
I think this way we might be able to devise a "stats based" strategy from the available filters in BTC to see if there are any other games which could bring additional profit.
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@taff-phillips can you post those stats you emailed me?
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Not a particularly busy weekend and nearing the end of the season now;
Saturday 6th May
Ferencvarosi vs Kisvarda Master Good (Trade)
Amsterdam vs Alkmaar (Trade)
Benfica vs Braga (Trade)Sunday 7th May
Basel 1893 vs Zurich (No Trade - HW Odds > 2.0)
Dortmund vs Wolfsburg (Trade)Monday 8th May
CSKA Sofia vs Vratsa (Trade)
Have a great weekend everyone
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Note to self - keep on the ball!!
I was busy yesterday and ended up posting and trading late due to other commitments. I completely forgot until I got a notification on my phone about a kick off on Flashscore and quickly placed the trades.
I shouldn't have, as both trades yesterday were Cup Games and I only trade League Games.
Fortunately, I actually ended up making profit on the results but this was purely luck and will not be counted towards the strategy P&L.
Valuable lesson there - keep your trading environment correct. I know only too well that trading properly cannot be a part-time/on your phone/quick check thing. It needs to be done properly, in the right environment and without distractions otherwise mistakes happen.
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Late post as I was out, today's fixtures, 1st one already started...
Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland
Porto vs Famalicao -
Yesterday's Results:
Ludogorets vs Stara Zagora Home Win
Atletico vs Cadiz Home WinAnother two good results. A positive aside from the results was further confirmation that my choice not to trade the leagues that have a "Championship Group" at the end of the season is right. Whilst a lot of the time the Home Win odds can be below 2.0 because its the top teams playing each other there are draws more frequently. As another example both games in the Greek Super League ended in draws which would have been nearly a 10 point loss to my strategy.
As it stands, cumulative profit and comparison stands at:
Current Staking Plan: +11.84 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +56.85 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +22.11 points -
Yesterday's Results:
Barcelona vs Osasuna Home Win
Maribor vs Mura Home WinCurrent Staking Plan: +9.41 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +51.53 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +18.11 pointsTonight's games which will both be traded:
Ludogorets vs Stara Zagora
Atletico vs Cadiz -
Couple of games this evening to trade:
Barcelona vs Osasuna
Maribor vs MuraWhilst I won't be trading either of these teams next season post my detailed analysis I will continue with the full list of teams for the remainder of this season just to add to my data set.
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I think I am there!!
I've now taken my initial list, applied as many filters/analysis as practical - not quite "Pareto's Principle" as I have definitely gone past 80% but I am at a point now where any more analysis would only give marginal gains I feel.
My list of teams to trade from the start of next season has now been whittled down from 38 to 25. I've compiled a new spreadsheet based on the following factors:
Revised List of Teams
HW Odds always below 2.0
Home Win and Home Draw Streaks
Overall Points achieved
% Home Games that end in Home win or Away Win (No £ Loss to Trading Bank)This new spreadsheet is available to view at the link in the Main Post called "Home Shorties Tailored"
This is the strategy I will be implementing from the start of next season with real stakes using a staking plan based on 3% of my trading bank for this strategy. I'm now going to look at additional strategies based on these same teams. (FHGs, SHGs, Home Team Total Goals, LTD HT, Late Goal)
A snapshot of the final tab of the spreadsheet is below:
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Strike Rate Tables compiled.
No Loss % cells are my key indicator which will then be cross referenced with the other tables to get an overall picture.
Red - Check against Teams overall P&L. -ve figure then scrub from list
Yellow - Deeper analysis required to decide whether to keep/lose
Green - Very likely to be highest profitable teams. Quick check of figures but these should be the first on the Team Sheet for next season.
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Next big piece of data analysis carried out - took some time but well worth it.
There is now so much data and my spreadsheet was getting ridiculous so I will update the Main Post with new links to the individual workbooks for those that want to check them out - don't all rush at once; I know how people love spreadsheets!!
Whilst it was painful doing it all I have seen some really surprising things which proves the benefit of really diving in to the numbers.
Teams with a good strike rate of Home Wins can actually due to their success become a victim of the odds/value offered on them. Lets take Bayern Munich for instance; nobody would probably question that they are the dominant team of the Bundesliga and have been for at least the last 10 years. One of my strongest performing teams I would have thought, and by results they are solid. However, when looking at points they are actually the 3rd worst performing team in my list with a P&L of -45.16 points since 2017/18 season start. Their best performing year was 2019 and the managed only +9.64 points; 2021 was their only other +ve year. 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022 were all losses.
Equally Barcelona and Real Madrid are overall negative to the strategy. Basel are the worst performing team taking over 50 points profit off the strategy. My best performing team is Porto
So the next step is to:
Teams that clearly show consistent losses - scrub from list.
Questionable teams - investigate if these losses are due to a particular, season, event etc? Make a decision on whether to keep or lose.
Filter - Use this overarching data to filter for my chosen Home Win Odds < 2.0 before I trade to see revised figures and further cull teams for a finalised list ready for next season.
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Yesterday's Results:
Slavia Prague vs Hradec Kralove (Trade) Draw
B. Munich vs Hertha (Trade) Home Win
Young Boys Bern vs Luzern (Trade) Home Win
PSG vs Lorient (Trade) Away Win
Olimp. Ljubljana vs Koper (Trade) Home Win
Split vs Dinamo Zagreb (No Trade - HW Odds +2) Draw
Porto vs Boavista (Trade) Home Win
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets (No Trade - HW Odds +2) Away Win
Sporting vs Famalicao (Trade) Home WinThe Slavia Prague result was a hit, joint second highest Draw Lay Odds of the day - but that was the only traded draw of the day.
Day finishes with a -3.06 points. If I had traded the games I chose to exclude then I would have been -6.76 for the day so there's a positive to take away.
What really becomes interesting is when you look at the alternative staking plans I am exploring.
In my current staking plan the Slavia Prague game equated to a -10 points and the day ended on -3.06 points. But if I look at the Alternative Staking Plan #1 then the Slavia Prague game equated to a -15.5 points but the day ends on +3.76 points.
Results and Comparison:
Current Staking Plan: +6.60 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +43.30 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +14.11 points -
Good day yesterday, albeit a small selection. 3 games on main list and 2 traded:
Jeonbuk vs Gangwon (No Trade - Jeonbuck poor form) Away Win
Real Madrid vs Almeria (Trade) Home Win
Barcelona vs Betis (Trade) Home WinJeonbuck's awful form continues and whilst the Away Win result wouldn't have affected P&L, the winning goal for Gangwon came in injury time, so very nearly a Draw. Decision not to trade this game proved right again.
La Liga big guns come good with both games basically won in the first half.
Points update:
Current Staking Plan: +9.66 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +39.54 Points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +26.98 PointsToday's selections:
Slavia Prague vs Hradec Kralove (Trade)
B. Munich vs Hertha (Trade)
Young Boys Bern vs Luzern (Trade)
PSG vs Lorient (Trade)
Olimp. Ljubljana vs Koper (Trade)
Split vs Dinamo Zagreb (No Trade - HW Odds +2)
Porto vs Boavista (Trade)
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets (No Trade - HW Odds +2)
Sporting vs Famalicao (Trade) -
More analysis carried out yesterday by month and season:
2017 as a whole year provides little insight as I only back tested to the start of the 2017 - 2018 and equally 2023 is a work in progress until the end of this season.
The things that immediately jump out looking at the table:
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January 2023 - worst month (by far) of the back test. I need to drill down in to that month particularly to see what has caused that. Could it be a World Cup Hangover? Because I am backing the top teams in leagues I would expect that these teams will be providing a lot of international players. No such 'hangover' was seen after 2018 WC but this was conducted in the normal summer break. If I average the January results for 2018 - 2022 I get about +10 points. Substituting this +10 points into January 2023 vice the -46 points it actually achieved, gives us a cumulative total for all January's of +62 points instead of just +6.72 points.
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2020 Covid - it can be seen that April produced no points and June/July produced more points that the other years. This evidently comes from the forced break. It might not necessarily affect the overall years total but might have skewed the results for June/July overall totals. If the 2020 June/July results were pushed back a bit in to March/April time then we might see that June/July is definitely the time for a Summer Break from Football Trading.
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December Consistency - This month has produced a profit each month with the exception of the aforementioned World Cup 2022 consideration. Again, some more analysis to see what has produced this.
I also split down result in general by season to show:
As with the above analysis the January 2023 anomaly significantly affects the season result. But even if we took the results now we would be looking at an average of +100 points per season. I'll take that as a starting point!
More data to be hammered over the weekend on the stuff already highlighted plus an Over 1.5 and a Lay 0-0 HT test.
Have a profitable weekend for all those trading.
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More to come in the next post. Drilled down a bit deeper which has highlighted some interesting things.
As always with data analysis it seems to lead to more questions than it does answers initially but hopefully this is going to lead to refining the strategy into a staple set and forget which can run in the background to generate a steady income.
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Yesterday's lone game produced a Home Win for Legia Warszawa adding another 1.51 points to the overall profit on the current staking plan. Cumulative profit results and comparison:
Current Staking Plan: +7.08 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +33.72 Points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +22.98 PointsAnother quiet day today, only trading 2 games, both in La Liga.
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@taff-phillips that's data break down is fantastic! well done
