Home Win Shorties
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@taff-phillips It would seem that way, I think there's usually a lot of games in the run up and the bigger teams have bigger better squads so they can manage that and not drop the quality too much!
But yes the others think sod this is Christmas I want to eat, drink and be merry!
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Yeah those stats sort of make sense when teams are chasing those Championships or Champions League Places. December really interests me with nearly 140 points - do the weaker teams just start their Christmas celebrations early and over indulge on the Christmas Pudding allowing the top teams an easy ride???
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@taff-phillips Really interesting that March / April are really strong because thats mainly when the leagues are closing out and the teams are going for their points.
Same with August - these teams starting strong!
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Some extra analysis completed this morning of the historic data. I have completed the "by month" filter of the initial raw data, which broke down as:
Jan +6.72 points (234 Games)
Feb +33.63 points (418 Games)
Mar +77.23 points (338 Games)
Apr +88.33 points (251Games)
May +18.38 points (185Games)
Jun +25.30 points (53 Games)
Jul -9.06 points (154 Games)
Aug +78.98 points (361 Games)
Sep +31.79 points (396 Games)
Oct +37.67 points (410 Games)
Nov +60.52 points (311 Games)
Dec +139.21 points (377 Games)This provides a decent overarching view of what is going on but the next steps will be:
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Analysis of each year to see of there are outliers which are bringing a particular month up/down significantly. Whilst July looks like a good opportunity for a Summer Holiday it may just be that a particular year has destroyed those stats.
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The above is analysis of the full raw data but I am already utilising a filter whereby I don't bet on a Home Team if their odds are above 2.0. So I will also filter for this and analyse by month and year again.
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The final analysis for this weekend will be a breakdown by team to see if there are any under performing teams which I can scrub from my list.
I'll post all analysis for anyone interested, but mainly to hold myself to account to actually get it done. I am really starting to see the benefit of meticulously recording data and it is also helping me in other aspects of my betting by stopping me making rash bets and documenting real profit. Big thanks to the BTC Team!!
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Just the one game to trade today:
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock
Main Spreadsheet has been updated with all the weekend fixtures also, this is what I am going to be doing:
Saturday 29th April
Jeonbuk vs Gangwon (No Trade - Jeonbuck poor form)
Real Madrid vs Almeria (Trade)
Barcelona vs Betis (Trade)Sunday 30th April
Slavia Prague vs Hradec Kralove (Trade)
B. Munich vs Hertha (Trade)
Young Boys Bern vs Luzern (Trade)
PSG vs Lorient (Trade)
Olimp. Ljubljana vs Koper (Trade - if Market is put up on Betfair)
Split vs Dinamo Zagreb (No Trade)
Porto vs Boavista (Trade)
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets (No Trade)
Sporting vs Famalicao (Trade)Good luck to everyone whatever you are trading this weekend.
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Decision to trade 3 of the 4 games yesterday turned out well - if not a bit lucky but I will take that!!
Jeonbuk vs Daejeon Citizen (No Trade - Jeonbuck poor form) Away Win
Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin (Trade) Home Win
Sparta Prague vs Plzen (Trade) Home Win
Atletico vs Mallorca (Trade) Home WinWhilst the Away Win against Jeonbuck wouldn't have affected my profit had I traded the game, I'm pleased I made a decision not to trade just from a confidence perspective as I move forward.
The luck really came in with the Sparta Game. The game was at 1-1 until 8 minutes into injury time when Sparta were awarded a penalty. Then all hell broke loose, a red card a piece for the teams and the penalty was finally scored after 14 minutes of injury time with the last kick of the game. Just trust the system :face_with_tears_of_joy:
Current Staking Plan: +5.57 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +29.08 Points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +20.98 Points -
@taff-phillips it'll be interesting to watch this and see what happens with it.
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Bit of midweek action today. 4 Games being played and I'm looking to trade 3 of them:
Jeonbuk vs Daejeon Citizen (Not Trade - Jeonbuck poor form)
Dinamo Zagreb vs Varazdin (Trade)
Sparta Prague vs Plzen (Trade)
Atletico vs Mallorca (Trade)Sparta Prague are playing #3 in the league so I did question whether to trade but I am sticking to the rule that if the Home Team odds are < 2 then I will trade as the historic data shows this to be the most profitable filter I have tested.
Bets not placed yet a Betfair is currently down. Main spreadsheet updated with selections but odds will be added when I place the bets.
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Its certainly an interesting concept. Initially it seems like a counter-intuitive strategy because you are limiting the profit on the trades you should more easily win (based on odds alone). Due to the fact I'm doing something pretty significantly different from Maria I need to work out my liability/odds ratio for my strategy. I will do this from the historic data at the end of this season and determine the most profitable ratio. This will take some time, but what I have done in the meantime is interesting...
I have added a Tab to the Main Spreadsheet called "Alt Staking" initially with 2 variations (I'll keep adding as I go forward and think of more alternatives).
Alt Staking 1. Set the Draw Lay Stake to = liability of 10% of total bank. Therefore the full liability of your bet will be 10 + Back Stake for Home Win.
Alt Staking 2. Stop Laying the Draw and just back the Home Win with a stake proportionate to generate a total of 2 points profit per game. Obviously the risk of this is that an Away Win also means you lose the trade as we are not laying the draw.
Comparison of Cumulative Profit Results:
Current Staking Plan: +1.3 points (Range 27.03 points)
Alt Staking Plan 1: +17.21 Points (Range 33.41 points)
Alt Staking Plan 2: +14.98 Points (Range 26.07 points)Definitely food for thought!
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@taff-phillips Yep Maria staking was very very clever, its something I really liked!
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14 Games in total this weekend (Fri - Sun), and of that 14 I traded 12 of them.
11 Home Wins and a Draw. Typically the one draw I had was Celtic, who other than Porto were the only team this weekend with Draw Lay Odds in double figures, so of course they would be the team that can't manage to put away the game!
I managed to watch the live stats at the end of the game and with 91 minutes on the clock there was still a trade out opportunity for -9 points instead of the full -15 points. If this hadn't been a trial with small stakes I would have taken this. But as I'm not really worried about the money atm, this is for testing purposes I left it run.
So, overall this weekend, +15.89 points in Home Wins and -15 points for the Celtic Draw. +0.89 points and now cumulative profit is at +1.3 points.
With the end of seasons approaching it might be a bit of a rollercoaster here as teams may be left with nothing to play for in the league so I will keep my eye on this in terms of what I trade.
More importantly for myself is that I am now building a decent data set not just of results but HT/FT Scores and Times of Goals.
I think this actually may come in to its own when a few parameters are combined to make each game more profitable. Even the draws would harvest some recovery points.
Again, nothing much midweek and I'm back at work tomorrow so more to look at Tuesday onwards regarding stats/analysis.
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Work and Family stuff kept me from fully focusing toward the end of the week and I nearly missed a trade yesterday evening, only noticed as my Flashscore sent me a notification. Managed to jump on so didn't miss the trade, but note to self to keep on top of stuff.
This weekends selections below:
Friday 21st April 23
Ludogorets vs Lok Sofia (Trade)
Saturday 22nd April 23
Celtic vs Motherwell (Trade)
Dortmund vs Frankfurt (Trade)
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians Prague (Trade)
Split vs Varazdin (Trade)
Maribor vs Domzale (Trade)
Young Boys Bern vs Servette (Trade)
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo (Trade)Saturday 22nd April 23
Basel 1893 vs Luzern (No Trade)
Eindhoven vs Amsterdam (No Trade)
Barcelona vs Atletico (Trade)
Feyenoord vs Utrecht (Trade)
Brugge vs Eupen (Trade)
Benfica vs Estoril (Trade)Friday's game was late being put up as explained, apologies to anyone following. Traded and a Home Win (+1.17 points)
Saturday has 7 games on the Raw Data list and I will be trading all of them.
Sunday has 6 games and I will be trading 5 of them. I also considered not trading the Barcelona game ass they are playing Atletico, but the Home Win Odds are less than 2.0 so I am going to stick to the strategy by odds. The benefit is that the Draw Odds are les than 3.5 so not a huge dent if it does turn out as a Draw.
Good luck to everyone trading today!
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@ryan Having done a bit more thinking, rather than an flat aggressive % staking strategy, I am thinking a "Maria" type staking plan but bespoke to my strategy/odds selections. She achieved her results with an 85% strike rate and at a glance I think this strategy achieves that also. Once I've crunched the final figures I'll decide which one fits best from the start of next season.
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@taff-phillips Yep 100% they have been, some people will be staking too high for a month or period when the strategy is going through a bad patch then it comes good again and they've missed the good days!
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2nd attempt at a reply as my Excel Skills faltered me at attempt 1. I've quickly added a tab to the Master Spreadsheet called "25% Staking" to reflect the aggressive staking strategy. With only 46 Games done of my test its obviously nowhere near enough of a decent sample size but has given me some food for thought.
Strategy is down further with this staking plan but will keep tracking long term to see how it pans out. I'm conscious of something I saw you say/type somewhere about the fact you've seen some good strategies be undone by incorrect staking.
This has now spurred me on to look at implementing a back test of this for the entire season and then back a few years with the Raw Data; this should keep me busy this week!
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Tough weekend just gone in terms of results, but some insights/personal victories that give me hope!
Saturday
7 Games, elected 6 to trade. 5 Home Wins which was great and then Bayern Munich of all teams let me down with a draw; even more painful was the fact they had a winning goal disallowed by VAR at '73. So basically that single draw wiped out all profit, and a bit, from the winning results on the day.
Sunday
6 Games, elected 3 to trade. 2 Home Wins and then again, another really strong Home Fave, Sporting, end with a Draw. This draw came with a goal in the 87th minute for Sporting. Had I been watching the game Live I probably would have traded out on this one after looking at the second half stats - an equaliser was always coming by the looks of it. This Draw cost me just under x3 points the Home Wins made me for the day.
This weekend ends with -6.8 points and cumulative profit now at +0.4 points. Back to square one in terms of P/L!
But, even though the results didn't all go my way this weekend feel like I've had a few personal victories...
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Mindset. The Bayern and Sporting results were pretty harsh in terms of points loss (-16 points) and also the late goals that caused the Draws. Previously, these are the sort of results that would have enraged me and caused me to either jack in the strategy or immediately start tweaking it. I didn't feel that this weekend. I just accepted that these results happen and we move. I think this may have been assisted by the level of back testing I did this time which gives me the confidence to stick with it.
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Data Recording. Being meticulous in the recording of results, time of goals etc is leading me to look at other angles of profit for this strategy. Potentially there is profit in a "Lay Under 1.5 Goals" and also a "Late Goal" strategy. All of these grouped could be a nice bump in the points column. Much more analysis required but the point is by following advice from BTC, in recording data properly I'm seeing things I wouldn't have before.
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Game Selections. This weekend was an overall loss on points, but, if I had traded all games that met the 'raw data' spreadsheet my strategy would now be circa -12 points rather than about break even. Sticking to games where the Home Team Odds are < 2 is certainly working to date.
No trades until Friday now so some time on the spreadsheet this week.
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@taff-phillips aha I won’t shoot you yet
I want to see those calculations though! -
This week hasn't gone as planned. The additional analysis I planned on doing based on Team and Month just didn't happen because other stuff got in the way. On the plus side my chickens now have a newly built run and the new waterfall in my pond is pretty much finished. So come the Summer, when the seasons wind down, I will be able to conduct my pre-season research in the garden in comfort with a few G&Ts!!
Anyway, on to trading, and firstly this weekends selections...
Saturday 15th April 23
Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim (Trade)
Rangers vs St. Mirren (Trade)
Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague (No Trade - 1st vs 2nd. HW Odds +2)
Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven (Trade)
Ferencvarosi vs Honved (Trade)
PSG vs Lens (Trade)
Porto vs Santa Clara (Trade)Sunday 16th April 23
Basel 1893 vs Young Boys Bern (No Trade - Young Boys away fave)
Legia Warszawa vs Poznan (No Trade - 2nd vs 3rd. HW Odds +2)
Olimp. Ljubljana vs Maribor (No Trade - 1st vs 2nd. HW Odds +2)
Atletico vs Almeria (Trade)
Amsterdam vs Emmen (Trade)
Sporting vs Arouca (Trade)Monday 17th April 23
CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia (No Trade - 1st vs 4th. HW Odds +2)
The decision of Trade/No Trade was fairly simple for most of the games with the exception of PSG vs Lens. This is a 1st vs 2nd game, but I decided to trade this one based on looking at historical data. When I back tested all the raw data the most profitable filter was backing all games when the Home Team had odds of < 2. This is what I will be sticking with for the remainder of my test period.
Master Spreadsheet updated with fixtures and odds correct at time of data capture. I'll adjust odds dependent on prices I actually get as I place the backs/lays.
Note:
My inability to conduct the additional analysis was playing on my mind last night but it did lead me to think of another angle. This strategy relies on low risk bets with a high strike rate. There might be an angle where ( don't shoot me yet @Ryan / @Martin ) due to the high strike rate an aggressive staking plan may return an increased profit. I just need time to sit down with the spreadsheet and fiddle about with my formulas to see whether this is a golden egg or the fast lane to the broke house!
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Late update, life getting in the way!
3 Selections today, all traded...
Young Boys vs Grasshoppers
Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki 1923
Barcelona vs Girona2 Home Wins, but Barcelona let the day down with a Bore Draw.
+2.43 points for the Home Wins
-6.4 points for the DrawToday -3.97 points
Cumulative +7.07 points (2% Commission accounted for)
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@taff-phillips brilliant work!
