Home Win Shorties
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I crafted a long post to explain my strategy here but when I copied and pasted it in last night ready for a start today it appears that there is a character limit to the posts and it didn't show properly. Apologies for the terrible admin. Ryan, Martin, if you can delete my previous post it would be appreciated.
Strategy:
I have selected a number of teams that over the last 10 years have consistently appeared at the top of their respective leagues. The likes of Bayern, Sporting, Celtic etc. The teams that if you were frozen for 10 years and came back life they would still be at the top of their respective leagues.
When they are playing at home I will look to back these at short odds and also lay the draw.
I spent quite a bit of time crunching the data and back testing this for results over the last 5 years and if my figures are correct this system with the right parameters has generated over 680 units of profit in the last 5 and a bit years.
There's is more to explain which I wil do in subsequent posts later this morning - I just wanted to get this out there so I can hold myself accountabe from today and will test until the end of this season.
All selections and results will be published on here.
If people have any questions or suggestions going forward I would love to hear them. I'm looking to refine this strategy as I move forward and will be doing further data analysis of Teams and Goal Times in matches to see if there is more profit to be extracted.
Good luck with whatever you guys are trading today.
Taff
UPDATED 1st May 2023
- Home Shorties Live - This is the spreadsheet showing my Live Trading from 1st April 2023. This is flat 1 point Back Home Win and 1 point Lay Draw. There is a second worksheet which shows some alternative staking plans which I am considering for next season.
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Aldu2zoSUAc8_E1RFkJJV0HXRun0?e=GJLDSg
- Home Shorties Raw Data - This spreadsheet shows all my back test data from July 2017 through to March 2023. There is a second tab which takes the raw data and filters the data down to results where the Match Odds for the Home Team are < 2. This is based on some trial and error testing which showed this as the most profitable filter.
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Aldu2zoSUAc8_EaA-pxGkm77mBwK?e=UALmr1
- Home Shorties Monthly Analysis - First 2 tabs on this spreadsheet are from the Raw Data Workbook, this is for ease of analysis. Then there are monthly tabs breaking down overall points by month and then a final tab collating these worksheets.
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Aldu2zoSUAc8_Eny-FfYJV_0XZMC?e=tYvBjL
- Home Shorties Team Analysis - This is the big one!! Again starts off with the Raw Data Workbook Tabs for analysis purposes. Then each team has its own tab with every game and also a list of their P/L per month and the amount of games they played that month. Then all these individual results/data points are collated on a Totals Tab. Additionally there is also Strike Rate information collated on the last tab which shows all teams together with their games and the strike rate where no profit is lost.
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Aldu2zoSUAc8_EuKm8WNkDPlAfdK?e=Wo8d29
- Home Shorties Tailored - Final List for trading from 2023/24 season forward.
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I'm a firm believer that each strategy should be judged on its own merits and the odd game might be the exception to the rule. But in general, as soon as positions are getting settled in leagues then the more spurious results appear. I think it needs a careful eye and an extra level of scrutiny for each game. As I said in the other thread, tonight's game that's just kicked off has 2 teams with something to play for so might be worth a trade.
The exclude Promoted/Relegated Teams in the software is an excellent tool for this.
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@Taff-Phillips I'm glad people are getting good evidence for this as I've been saying it for years and still get some pushback but end of season has a huge undeniable effect!
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And here we have it, a set of weekend results that shows why we don't want to trade the end of the season when many teams have little to play for! As I said in the previous post the reality is that I wouldn't have traded all these games but this is still the testing stage so I played them out.
Saturday 20th May
Maribor vs Bravo (Trade) Draw
Olimp. Ljubljana vs Celje (No Trade - Home Odds > 2) Away Win
Ferencvarosi vs Debreceni (Trade) Away Win
B. Munich vs Leipzig (Trade) Away Win
Barcelona vs Real Sociedad (Trade) Away WinSunday 21st May
Jeonbuk vs Suwon City (No Trade - Jeonbuck Form) Home Win
Amsterdam vs Utrecht (Trade) Home Win
Eindhoven vs Heerenveen (Trade) Draw
Atletico vs Osasuna (Trade) Home Win
Basel 1893 vs Lugano (No Trade - Home Odds > 2) Draw
Sporting vs Benfica (No Trade - Home Odds > 2) DrawWe end the weekend with 4 Draws (2 Traded), 3 Home Wins and 4 Away Wins. Nowhere near what I've come to expect from this strategy. Whilst the Away Wins are Scratch Trades in this strategy I'd still not be comfortable trading this late in the season with that amount of them. On the plus side, I spent most of this weekend in the garden, putting my bets on early each morning. This just proved to me that in future May might be a good month for a holiday with the family next year!
On the testing staking plan this weekend takes 9.81 points off the strategy!
Cumulative profit and comparison stands at:
Current Staking Plan: +12.03 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +42.67 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +27.49 pointsLast Game Week for many teams next week so this specific thread will be winding up and becoming my overall trading journey which will be my overall portfolio. This will include my own strategies, some of the Profitable Member Strategies from BTC and also some strategies from other traders I know that have proven profitable long term.
Other than Real Madrid playing on Wednesday, there are no fixtures until Saturday so I will be pretty quiet on here whilst I get everything prepared for the Summer Break.
Have a great week everyone!
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This weekend's fixtures below.
With the end of the European Season almost upon us the below list should be taken with a pinch of salt in terms of trading. This strategy testing phase is now coming to an end so I will stick to the parameters of backing the Home Team if their Win odds are less than 2. In reality, if this was with real stakes I would be avoiding most of the games below as there is little to play for in a lot of games. La Liga is settled as are a few of the other top leagues.
I would avoid a strict rule of not trading the end of a season completely but would certainly be more careful. For instance whilst Feyenoord are Eredivisie Champions already, PSV and Ajax still have everything to play for in terms of that second CL place up for grabs so I would still be trading on them even though they only have 2 games to play.
In the coming weeks this thread will be closed or at least have a name change as I add this Set and Forget strategy to my Portfolio for the start of next season. This (or its replacement) will be a journal of my overall Portfolio which will encompass Set and Forget and In Play Strategies.
Saturday 20th May
Maribor vs Bravo (Trade)
Olimp. Ljubljana vs Celje (No Trade - Home Odds > 2)
Ferencvarosi vs Debreceni (Trade)
B. Munich vs Leipzig (Trade)
Barcelona vs Real Sociedad (Trade)Sunday 21st May
Jeonbuk vs Suwon City (No Trade - Jeonbuck Form)
Amsterdam vs Utrecht (Trade)
Eindhoven vs Heerenveen (Trade)
Atletico vs Osasuna (Trade)
Basel 1893 vs Lugano (No Trade - Home Odds > 2)
Sporting vs Benfica (No Trade - Home Odds > 2)These lists are more a careful watching eye for me now as I put my focus now into my admin/tools/staking plans and routine for next season.
Best of luck this weekend guys and girls - I'll update results on Sunday Night/Monday morning.
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@Taff-Phillips solid stuff here!
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@Taff-Phillips The data is all there and getting bigger every week. Just a question of replicating that in real life. I'm up for the year though haha!
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@Richard-Latimer thanks for that. I'll check that site out and model the scenario. I've heard about that losing streak staking method from Ian at informracing.com also but not used the tool as yet.
Good luck with your strategies, sounds like they are going well so far.
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@Taff-Phillips said in Home Win Shorties:
I'd be interested to know what Stakes/Odds/%'s you are using.
I know Maria requires a high SR to be successful which is fine for this strategy, but was originally used on Horse Racing. I'm not certain it really lends itself to my system with the LTD Odds being so high?
I'm always happy to model something new to see if it eeks out a few more quid.
For my under 1.5 lays I am using the exact odds parameters she did but with the dfference that I calculate each stake on my expected s/r at the highest odds for each against longest expected losing streak (you can find out this nugget of gold easily - I use https://www.thestakingmachine.com/els/) x5. This was the advised figure to avoid blowing the bank in an article I read. I also use the 35% ratchet so don't reduce stake unless I hit 35% loss.
I have recently started replicating this with over 1.5 lays, to a fair amount of success so far, using lay odds parameters of up to 1.15, 1.16 to 1.39 and 1.40+ (the exact opposite of the original parameters.
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I'd be interested to know what Stakes/Odds/%'s you are using.
I know Maria requires a high SR to be successful which is fine for this strategy, but was originally used on Horse Racing. I'm not certain it really lends itself to my system with the LTD Odds being so high?
I'm always happy to model something new to see if it eeks out a few more quid.
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@Ryan said in Home Win Shorties:
@taff-phillips Yep Maria staking was very very clever, its something I really liked!
And I still follow my own variation of that right now.
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@Alan-Dawson Yeah the end of the season is always a worry. I know most people (included in Martin's Golden Rules) do not trade the first ten games of a season until data becomes more reliable. However, for this strategy you'll see from the back test that the first two months of the seasons are some of the most profitable. I think every strategy has to be judged on its own merits and track record.
I'll be adding this to my In-Play strategies fro next season and hopefully I will have a pretty decent portfolio to work from.
Good luck with your trading buddy.
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@Taff-Phillips Thanks very much for the reply, looks very promising so far, hopefully it continues into next season. Agree that the end of season could produce some dodgy results, i guess this is when you would really have to consider what to back/lay etc. I enjoy following and will continue to do so, good luck with the rest of the season
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There's always one, and this week it was Young Boys preventing a clean sweep of the board! Still a decent set of results though and have added to the bank nicely. With only a couple of games left of the season in most leagues now its really time to start being wary of games (if this was with real stakes rather than a trial) as results will start likely start to get a bit spurious. For instance, with Barca having been confirmed as La Liga Champions and Real still in the Champions League with a possible final on 1st June if they can overcome Man City, how much effort are they going to put in the three games in seven days they have in La Liga next week? All food for thought!
Anyway, this weekends breakdown:
Saturday 13th May
B. Munich vs Schalke 04 Home Win
Split vs Osijek Home Win
Dortmund vs B. Monchengladbach Home Win
Real Madrid vs Getafe Home Win
PSG vs Ajaccio Home Win
Sporting vs Maritimo Home WinSunday 14th May
Young Boys Bern vs Zurich Draw
Feyenoord vs GA Eagles Home Win
Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik Home Win
Eindhoven vs Sittard Home Win
Porto vs Casa Pia Home WinCumulative profit and comparison stands at:
Current Staking Plan: +21.84 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +75.43 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +44.68 pointsThe remainder of this season really is just a watching eye and tacking results now a this forward test coupled with the significant back test have left me confident that this strategy is ready to go live from the start of season 23/24. I am now focussing on my other strategies (FHG, O1.5, O2.5 and BTTS) which are In Play strategies to complete my portfolio.
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Hey Alan, no problem at all, to be fair I've not really explained them well as it was me just throwing ideas on a spreadsheet at first.
Curent Staking Plan - This is just a simple 1pt Flat Stake on the Home Win and a 1pt Lay on the Draw. Obviously with this strategy Liability can seem a bit daunting as you are backing such strong Home Favourites and the Lay Draw can be like 15 odds sometimes. I know most strategies would say never Lay above like 8-9 or even lower but this strategy relies on (and produces) a very high Strike Rate. I filtered out lays above 10 when I did the initial testing and it actually reduced the profitability of the strategy.
Alternative Staking Plan 1 - This is % based of the starting bank. I LTD to my chosen % so that the liability is the % rather than the stake. I then back the Home Win for the same amount as the LTD Stake.
Alternative Staking Plan 2 - This Staking Plan actually alters the way you place bets. This is a simple Back the Home Team to win Bet. As the odds are so short for these selections you back with a stake to give 2pts profit. So for instance if the odds for a Home Win are 1.2 I would back with a stake of 10 to give 12pts return and 2pts of profit. The downside to this is that you lose your full stake if the game ends in a Draw or an Away Win, whereas the other 2 Staking Plans cover the Away Win and give you a scratch trade.
I've just written the above quickly on my phone before I pop out this morning, so if I've not explained anything properly please feel free to drop me another message
UPDATE
I've just got home and quickly thought I would add some extra data to the post to help justify my thinking. This strategy heavily relies on a high SR because of the potential losses when you hit a Draw. I quickly added some columns to one of my analysis sheets (the tailored 25 teams, not the initial 38) and got the following statistics for a back test to the start of the 2017/2018 season:
Max Winning Streak: 31 Games (1 Occurrence)
Max Losing Streak (Draw): 2 Games (27 Occurrences)
Max Scratch Streak (Away Win): (2 Occurrences) -
@Taff-Phillips Hi there, been following this thread and find it very interesting. Thanks for sharing. Can i please ask what are the different Staking plans? I have looked at the spreadsheet but cant make sense of it. Thanks again
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Single result from last nights game:
Legia vs Jagiellona (Trade) Home Win
Current Staking Plan: +14.31 points
Alt Staking Plan 1: +61.98 points
Alt Staking Plan 2: +28.60 pointsThis weekends selections (all to be traded as Home Teams have odds < 2.0):
Saturday 13th May
B. Munich vs Schalke 04
Split vs Osijek
Dortmund vs B. Monchengladbach
Real Madrid vs Getafe
PSG vs Ajaccio
Sporting vs MaritimoSunday 14th May
Young Boys Bern vs Zurich
Feyenoord vs GA Eagles
Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik
Eindhoven vs Sittard
Porto vs Casa PiaHave a great weekend trading guys!
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Just the one selection today
Legia vs Jagiellona (Trade)
Weekend selections will be posted early tomorrow morning.
Have a great weekend everyone.
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I actually think with the strike rates I'm observing there may be several strategies for each game.
Once the season comes to a close in the next few weeks I am going to conduct another back test with the slimmed down amount of teams with results all the way to the end of season and then take the parameters I've been looking at and break them down for each team. Whilst an overall SR for Home Team SHG +1.5 of 40% might look ok on the surface (if the odds are right) it might be that specific teams are bumping this up and others are sadly letting the stat down.
Be interesting to see if I can manufacture a multi trade situation for each game utilising the filters.
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@taff-phillips loving these great work!
