Home Win Shorties
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I record all the selections that come up on my filter and just put a Y/N in my "Trade" column on my spreadsheet. If there's a N in that column the spreadsheet doesn't count any profit/Loss but the raw data is there. I can then manually calculate the difference.
As time progresses this will influence what I include and what I don't.
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@taff-phillips very interesting well done!
Do you compare the games you avoid to see long term if it's profitable to do so?
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Three games on the initial list today so relatively quiet (more on that later), played as follows...
Jeonbuk vs Incheon (No Trade - Jeonbuk form questionable)
Ajax vs Sittard (Trade)
Feyenord vs Waalwijk (Trade)All 3 games ended in Home Wins. I did not trade Jeonbuk so missed profit, but again I was happy to play it safe at this stage of testing.
+2.29 points profit today and +10.96 cumulative profit for the strategy.
Note:
I had my filter set up slightly incorrectly and due to some leagues (Austrian, Greek, Slovak and Romania) having a "Championship Group" playoff at the end of the season, I missed some selections on the initial selections. However, those Championship Group games are the top teams in the league only so would probably be a "No Trade" anyway according to my strategy.
I had a quick look at the results and there were three Home Wins and a Draw which equated to roughly a break even P/L situation. I will continue to monitor for the remainder of this season without trading, and dependent on results will choose to include/not include next season when I am past the testing phase.
Three games on tomorrow's initial list and I will be trading all three of them. These are the final selections until next Saturday which gives some time for deeper analysis of the historic results to see how I might be able to eek out some more profit from this strategy.
As usual, selections on the Main Spreadsheet in advance if anyone wants to see,
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6 Games today that made the initial selection, this was narrowed down to the following:
Celtic vs Rangers (No Trade - 1st vs 2nd)
Dortmund vs Berlin (Trade)
Ludogorets vs Vratsa (Trade)
Eindhoven vs Excelsior (Trade)
Maribor vs Koper (No Trade - 2nd vs 4th)
Real Madrid vs Villarreal (Trade)Of the teams not traded they both actually won. Missed profit there but at this early stage of testing I'm happy not to sacrifice bank even if I was being a little cautious.
Dortmund played Berlin who were 3rd but I took this trade because of such a strong Home record Dortmund have against Berlin (beaten them every game at home since at least 2016) and Dortmund have the best Home record overall in the Bundesliga.
So, 4 games from 6 traded today with 3 Home Wins (+3.91 points) and an Away Win (0 points) with Real Madrid conceding 2 goals in the last '20.
Strategy now stands at +8.67 points since start of testing.
3 Games on tomorrow's initial list. At a quick glance I will only be trading 2 of them as Jeonbuck are still not preforming as expected. Full analysis in the morning, too tired now.
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3 Games met initial criteria today:
Hadjuk Split vs Instra (Trade)
Porto vs Benfica (No Trade, 1st vs 2nd in League)
Circle Brugge vs Seraing (Trade)Split Drew with Instra; game was up in the air all 1st half and was 2-2 by half time. Split had red card early in 2nd and I considered a Trade out if they managed a 3rd goal rather than let it run. They had goal disallowed for offside and then Instra had a Red Card. Thought Split might steal it late but no cigar. -5.6 points
Porto vs Benfia (no trade) ended in an Away Win so wouldn't have affected P/L - right decision not to trade I feel.
Circle Brugge win 2-0, both goals in 2nd half. Stats comfortable - away team only managed a single shot on target all game. +1.12 points
Loss on the day of -4.48 points. Cumulative P/L +4.84 now,
6 games tomorrow (2 Trades, 1 No Trade, 3 TBC after further analysis.
All selections already on the Main Spreadsheet if anyone wants to see in advance.
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Home Win for Partizan; +1.2 points profit.
Trade out opportunity at '70 was circa +1 point profit - Away Team had 0 shots on target for the entire second half so let bet run.
Strategy now at +9.3 points profit. Next games Fri/Sat/Sun.
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For my notes...
Partizan 1-0 after 5 minutes.
0.67 point profit trade out available. Max Profit if Home Win 1.2 points.
Update P/L spreadsheet to record trade out prices as soon as Home Team go 1 up?
Anyone taking an interest in this thread, if you know a way to see exact price fluctuations when a goal is scored (can't guarantee I'll be at laptop for every game) I'd appreciate your input.
I know the Betfair graphs are there but they don't seem that accurate??
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Trade today on Partizan (Serbia Super League). Partizan not setting things alight in 4th and playing 7th so not as clean cut as I'd hope. But, Vozdovac have have conceded nearly twice as many goals away as they have scored.
Partizan are in the middle of a honking run at home so initially I wasn't going to trade this one. But having looked at their last few games, the Home Losses (which are zero P/L) have come after going behind initially by 2 goals - unlikely they recover from that and becomes a scratch trade.
The 2 recent draws have come from conceding goals within the last 20 minutes of the game. As considered in an earlier post I'll probably look at trading out with '70 on the clock if the Home Team is winning by only 1 goal; obviously momentum and P/L dependent.
As I ideally want this as a set and forget strategy I will record P/L as the full time result outcome but look to add a column to my spreadsheet to reflect accurately what I choose to trade in play giving a comparison of the different outcomes.
Good luck today Traders
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@eero-tarik
Hey, yes the reason I didn't trade Legia was because they were playing another top team. Strictly speaking this would also apply to Bayern if I solely went from league positions, but, Bayern are just so consistent at home I was prepared to back them even against Dortmund.
It's not always going to work out but they are probably one of the few teams I would back at home regardless of opposition.
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@taff-phillips Great work, thanks.
Question... You didnt trade Legia because they were playing the top team, but you did trade Bayern, who were also playing the top team.
Was there a reason for the difference, scientifically?
Thanks for your efforts.
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@taff-phillips Yep I agree on that, especially with the transfers you just never know.
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Yeah there's definitely more tweaking to be done as I move forward.
I'm level sraking at the moment with just 1 point during the test but I feel there's definitely something in adjusting stakes. Maybe a Kelly Criterion or just a % of bank roll based on the draw liability. With a high strike rate that this strategy showed on back test I think it's even possible to adjust that % almost live if you were sat there at the computer rather than a set and forget approach.
The thing I like about this strategy is the limited number of teams it covers which stops you having to cover lots of games and also these are top teams in their respective leagues which people love trading on so hopefully liquidity won't be a problem when trying to scale stakes.
Additionally to the staking question I think is how teams perform at which stages of the season. Maybe the first say 5 games of the season are more volatile due to summer transfers, break, maybe staff changes etc; or, at the end of the season when say there is less to play for in the top half of the table (league positions already settled) but relegation teams are still fighting for points.
All things to think about going forward....I think I'm going to be burning out my Excel functions
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This reminds me of something somebody was sharing with me years back with the NBA and NFL with the top top teams they played around with they're staking a little different BUT this premise I like a lot!
Especially as traders we are playing a numbers game, which this gives us.
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Seven games traded today. 5 Home Wins (+6.51 points), 1 Away Win (0 points) and 1 Draw (-6 points). The draw game had a trade out opportunity at '75 with the Home Team ahead 2-1 for 1 point profit.
Analysis of goal times to be conducted to see if trade out between '70 - '80 when Home Team are leading by only one goal improves profit of this strategy. Far greater sample size required for live test but may be possible to use back test software to conduct historic data test.
Overall profit for the day +0.51 and cumulative profit +8.06 points.
No games for a few days now that meet the strategy criteria so time to conduct individual team analysis by season and then also by month.
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@taff-phillips said in Home Win Shorties:
Great start to the strategy today, 8 selections on the initial list with six of those making the final cut to trade. All six games traded ended up in Home Wins with an overall profit of 7.56 Units.
Seven games on tomorrow's list all being traded.
great start!
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Great start to the strategy today, 8 selections on the initial list with six of those making the final cut to trade. All six games traded ended up in Home Wins with an overall profit of 7.56 Units.
Seven games on tomorrow's list all being traded.
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@dan-mackinnon and anyone else who might be interested...
Spreadsheet for the last 5 years for my selected teams. If you think there are any other teams that might merit consideration by all means let me know and I can back test them. A few other filters included on the spreadsheet, but again, any suggestions for other permutations that could be looked at are more than welcome. My next step will be to filter by Team to see which ones are performing best/worst by season to see if there are any particularly bringing the profit down.
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Hey Dan
Yeah I have it all down on a spreadsheet with the Raw Data (All Home matches) and some separate tabs with different variations where I have filtered stuff.
I'm on my phone right now, but as soon as I'm back at my laptop I'll post a link to it.
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This sounds very interesting. Do you have a spreadsheet with all your data?
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OK, so it wasn't character length, it was a special character I had included in the original post which I have now changed, hopefully that has sorted it...
The strategy I will be testing relies on a select number of teams that consistently (over the last 10 years) figure in the top 2/3/4 of their leagues. Obviously, these teams will, due to their consistency, be very short odds when playing at home; which I had always thought was a waste of time backing because your strike rate has to be so high to generate a decent profit. So, rather than just backing the Home Team to Win, I will be combining this with a Lay the Draw for the same amount of points as I back the Home Win. So, if the Home Team win the strategy will get both the Home Win Profit and the Lay Draw Profit. If the Away Team manage to secure an outsiders victory then the Home Win Stake is covered by the Draw Lay. If the game ends up a Draw then both bets lose.
Having selected my teams from looking back through the last 10 years of League Tables I then back tested those teams Home Fixtures for the last 5 years. Initially I did this using the raw data (every home fixture in their respective leagues) and then I ran some other permutations to get an initial of idea of what might work best (HW Odds < 2, 1.2 > HW Odds < 1.5, Draw Odds < 5, Draw Odds < 10) to start off with. There is obviously far more refining that could be done to narrow down this strategy but I thought this was a good place to start. Also, I had to apply a bit of Pareto here, as mentioned earlier I could have procrastinated forever over just getting on with starting a test case.
Having crunched the basic figures I decided to plum for the parameters that gave the greatest profit between Season 17/18 and 22/23 (to date). This meant selecting fixtures where the Home Team Odds were less than 2. The back test showed a cumulative profit of 680+ points for those 5 (and a bit seasons). The only other parameter I will consider on a case by case basis as I go forward are any games where the odds for the Home Team are less than 1.10 (the likes of Rangers and Celtic) – for these I’ll decide whether the juice is worth the squeeze.
As I go forward I will do some greater analysis on each team to see if there are any in particular that are costing the strategy more points due to their Draw rate and with time I will also look at times of goals scored and whether there is an optimal trade out position say if the Home Team is winning by only one goal late in the game to avoid that dreaded draw and the loss of 4+ points. Without a trade out point this is essentially a set and forget betting strategy rather than trading in all honesty.
I will use this page to keep myself honest and publish all my selections that fit my criteria and also P&L as I move forward. I will put all the fixtures up for my selected teams and then indicate from there which games I would select to trade. I initially use software called CGM to make my selections which takes odds from Pinnacle, I will update the odds accurately from Betfair as the fixtures start to reflect the prices (and P&L) accurately.
I would love to hear any questions or suggestions people have with regards to the above idea and am happy to supply any of the back testing data I crunched.
Apologies for such a long post, if you have taken the time to get down this far thank you for taking the time to read it.
Taff
This weekend’s fixtures… (edited to a list as I realised the picture was unreadable)
Saturday 1st April
Jeonbuk vs Pohang (No Trade - only 4 games played in League. Poor start to season by Jeonbuck)
Rangers vs Dundee (Trade)
Legia Warszawa vs Czestochowa (No Trade - playing 1st in League)
Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost GAT (Trade)
Bayern Munich vs Dortmund (Trade)
Slavia Prague vs Olomouc (Trade)
Basel 1893 vs Winterthur (Trade)
Sporting vs Santa Clara (Trade)Sunday 2nd April
Sparta Prague vs Brno (Trade)
Real Madrid vs Valladolid (Trade)
Ferencvarosi vs Fehervar (Trade)
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Sezena (Trade)
PSG vs Lyon (Trade)
Atletico vs Betis (Trade)
Porto vs Portimonense (Trade)
